Back with a podcast this week so we have a few things to talk over, starting with a farewell to Andrea Atzeni who is following the likes of Silvestre de Sousa over to Hong Kong to make his living. No-one can blame him with his percentage of the riches on offer via the far higher effectively “Tote” funded prize-money, a dangling golden carrot, but make no mistake – it will be hard work and I do wonder if he knows what he is on for. Work mornings are, to the best of my knowledge, seven days a week bright and early, and some (not all) of the winners are pretty fickle folk – you are only as good as your last winner - but if you can land a few you will pick up plenty of extra rides. He does have one advantage being able to ride at eight stone three which will be a bonus but horses at the bottom if the weights won’t be the best and I would not advise him to ride too many low class beasts only to add up a long list of losers, money or no money. Although he hasn’t gone just yet, he has sent out a parting shot at UK racing with its lack of prize money the defining factor. Riding as a freelance these days with no retainer to fall back on, picking up a percentage of close to nothing simply doesn’t pay the bills, and with the possibility of a career ending fall around every corner, what else was he supposed to do with regards to a financially secure future?
Next up is mine alone – the Horserace Bettors Forum (https://ukhbf.org) are looking for up to three new members as part of our annual refresh. In more enlightened times we met four times a year to discuss going, sectional timings, and any other anomaly in the sport that we could work with or challenge the BHA on (wind-ops being declared were largely down to us), but with the white paper on gambling things have moved up a gear or 10. Anyone interested in becoming a member (unpaid I’m afraid) can read more here https://ukhbf.org/horseracing-bettors-forum-refresh-2023/ and this is your chance to try to make a difference in the sport here in the UK. All we are looking for is time, effort, enthusiasm, and ideas, so if this is you, please reach out and help us to fine-tune the sport we all love.
Now we all love a successful gamble (especially if we were part of it), but what do we make of the one in Ireland where five-year-old gelding Anyway was backed form an opening 28/1 all the way down to Evens before winning by nine lengths eased down at the line. There are more complicated questions being asked elsewhere regarding ownership, non-runners etc that are beyond me, and am merely interested in stewarding, both in Ireland and here in the UK. The horse in question had raced a total of five times previously, being beaten 31 lengths, 63 lengths, 67 lengths, 22 lengths, and 46 lengths over trips from two to two and a half miles. Today was over two and a quarter miles so no big change in trip to justify improvement, the going was Good and he has raced on that and good to yielding before so nothing to report there, which to me at least, makes the trainers explanation that he is a lazy horse who benefitted from cheekpieces frankly insulting. In a nutshell then, add cheekpieces to a horse and they can improve by close to 60 lengths – really? It would be interesting to see if anyone can come up with any other examples of a horse improving that much for headgear (Pegasus didn’t improve that much for wings!), and if that is simply accepted in Ireland (which I doubt) then racing is a laughing stock.
Lastly for the chit-chat and there are rumblings in Macau that racing may cease there with no signs of their licence being renewed by the authorities. To be fair, it has been going downhill for many years now with an ever-smaller horse population to call on, and maybe it is just progress, but if they can’t make it work in one of the most gambling mad jurisdictions on the entire planet then you have to worry for the sport elsewhere in the long-term.
Bored of reading - or bored of my views – listen to Ron Robinson and myself on the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/08/31/atzeni-should-gambles-be-investigated-and-fancy-a-job/?fbclid=IwAR10j8fZmd5x8lpW59VE3W0_UySVhZU9sFRzTo1Kp4lzNWk0vK7eGmLGyoE instead!
Saturday Racing
1.50pm Sandown
We start the day with a seven-furlong handicap and one where there have only been two runnings so far – both of them won by the favourite. It looks at the time of writing as if Amber Island will have that honour in 2023 (though who knows with the volatile betting markets these days) after the six-year-old scored by over a length at Leicester in first-time cheekpieces, but she has gone up 4lb for that and she moves back up in grade. At a far bigger price I am willing to take an each way chance on Youarenotforgiven, unbeaten over seven furlongs with a two from two record, and easily forgiven a poor effort last time out. Slowly away over the mile at Brighton, he was rushed up to take closer order before unsurprisingly weakening close home, but back at what I feel is his favoured trip, as long as he gets away with the rest, he most certainly has a sporting chance.
2.05pm Beverley
A decent and competitive mile and a half handicap next, and one where I am expecting a bold (hopefully winning) effort from Aimeric - assuming the rains stay away between now and race time. Trained by Roger Varian, the four-year-old son of the great Frankel has only had nine starts, winning three of them, the latest at Doncaster in early June. Not beaten far (four lengths) when eight in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, before finding the supposedly Good ground too soft for him when tailed off over further at Newmarket. If he gets quicker surface (good or faster) then he may have more to offer, and at 7/1 or thereabouts can be backed each way if you like that sort of thing.
2.25pm Sandown
That’s more like it – a Group Three contest with plenty of history behind it that will hopefully help me to find the winner! Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last 10 runnings which suggests that Potapova (who won it last year) may outrun her price, but I still prefer the chances of outside Nibras Angel, a 28/1 chance at the time of writing. A daughter of Harry Angel, she is taking a leap of faith moving out of novice company to this level, but I note she still holds an entry in the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes next month, which suggests she is held in some regard. All the way wins at Lingfield and then Thirsk do leave her with plenty to find, but you have to ask yourself – would she be this price were she trained by a Gosden or an Appleby – and not by Ismail Mohammed?
2.40pm Beverley
Seven of the last 10 winners have popped out of a stall lower than seven and with the well-know advantage for those drawn low, it makes good senses to focus our attentions there, though with only seven runners, how much use that information will be is open to question. Silkie Wilkie is the obvious suggestion in a race I really don’t like the look of – suggesting a favourite who came home ninth last time out goes against the grain. Admittedly, he was slightly hampered and short of room at a crucial stage, and that was the Group Two King George Qatar Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, which does all add up to him having every chance here, I just can’t go overboard and see him as NAP of the day or anything.
3.00pm Sandown
Another fiendish handicap to try and solve, but at least it looks more interesting than some and it has, I admit, grabbed my attention. Eagle’s Way has to be on the shortlist if only because he is in the hands of the master (Sir Mark Prescott), but there is a chance that the handicapper has his measure now, and I narrowly prefer the each way chances of Dashing Roger, who could surprise a few. His form figures of 537 this season do not exactly inspire I admit, but his last run was in the Group Two Summer Mile at Ascot when he was unsurprisingly outclassed before weakening over the mile, but before that he was beaten less than a length when third to City Streak over a fraction further at Chester. Three of his five wins on turf have come off higher marks than he suffers here, and with glimpses of a return to his best, he may be worth a quid each way of nothing else.
3.20pm Chester
A bit of a stamina test over the mile and three-quarters plus here, and if the going remains on the soft side it ought to sort the men from the boys (if you are still allowed to say that)? Ralph Beckett has trained the last two winners here which tells us not to ignore Lone Eagle, but he has to give 6lb to Military Order, and surely that is a huge ask? Charlie Appleby’s colt was sent off as short as 9/2 for the Epsom Derby won by Auguste Rodin before coming home stone cold last when in my view he failed to handle the cambers. Clearly a lot better than that he has been given plenty of time to recover, and if he stays this trip and wins as I hope, we can all expect a shake-up in the St Leger markets.
3.38pm Sandown
Some pretty decent sorts have won the Solario Stakes over the years (Kingman in 2013 is the standout to me) but will we see the emergence of anything near to that level here I wonder? It does look to me like there is a potential battle for the early lead with both current favourite Starlore (coincidentally, a son of Kingman) and Leicester winner Mortlake both liking to sit on or near the pace, and if that assumption is correct (pretty naive after so few starts to be fair), then this may be set up to suit Aablan. I feel the Charlie Appleby juveniles have been running a bit in and out recently, but the son of Dubawi won his only start a shade cleverly at Newmarket when given an educational ride by James Doyle, and with entries in all the top Autumn juvenile events he is clearly seen as one of their better two-year-olds.
Sean’s Suggestions:
A Godolphin double – Military Order 3.20pm Chester and Aablan 3.38pm Sandown
Sean’s suggestions:
Passenger 6.50pm Windsor
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