Safe to say less waffle more horses provided a profitable weekend (for a change) with all three “suggestions” successful for a win single and a win double, though naturally I failed to hit the dreamed of 100% success rate even with a few other winners and places to boot. This week we need to start with a bit of news after Aidan O’Brien finally landed his Derby and Oaks double with Bolshoi Ballet and Santa Barbara – but in New York not at Epsom. I would love to tell you they strolled home hard held ahead of a return to Europe for an Autumn campaign, but the truth is they were made to work far harder than I hoped, and I am beginning to wonder if they were simply overhyped earlier in the season.
While we are in the subject of American racing, I have always seen it as glorified dog tracks barring the bigger meetings, but that comes from a position of British racing snobbery, but I am beginning to warm to the way they frame their races, though that is only from an onlooker perspective so forgive my lack of detail. What I have noticed in that plenty of their races are simple to enter, allowing certain horses and knocking back others and I am wondering if that would be a good idea over here. Firstly, they have an incredible number of claimers which we all see as a negative – after all, in the UK that is one step away from a seller which in turn is one step away from Blackpool Beach- or worse. In America they do things slightly differently – firstly there are massively different levels of claimers (there is one at the weekend where they can be claimed for $150,000 per horse), and secondly claims have to be put in before the race – interesting as you could cough up an arm and a leg for the horse who came home last while failing to put in a claim at all on the winner. Everyone values their horse accordingly and knows the risk in volved – but if you lose a horse for $150,000 you have a war chest to replace him or her a race or two afterwards, so all is good in the world. Better still are the lesser races – maidens (obviously) but the ones I like are aimed at horses who have not won more than two races, three races, two races in the last 12 months etc – and what I see are competitive races with horses of approximately equal talent, horses that can only realistically be aimed at a certain list of races, and a lack of “cheating” with no handicap marks to bother about in the main. Few races are massively oversubscribed, unlike here, and few are underrepresented either (with exceptions), and I confess, some of the ideas are growing on me slowly.
Back to the UK and what do we all make of Starman who lived up to his name when strolling home in the July Cup last weekend despite meeting plenty of trouble in running. I will admit I felt he arrived at Newmarket with plenty to prove and I wasn’t as taken with him as everyone else, but it appears I was wrong (again), and the form looks rock solid with Dragon Symbol second and Oxted third (even if my selection did hang badly). He looks all set to go to the very top of the sprinting ranks but there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side and I note he has an entry over seven furlongs at York in August, though I suspect he is far more likely to be seen at Haydock for the Betfair Sprint in early September.
Sadly, we need to round things off with what appears certain to be bad news as Panorama have a programme on the destinations of horses post racing on Monday evening, and you just know in advance our sport will not come out smelling of roses. As we all know the media can and do edit and point their stories in certain directions as they see fit, and as the public in 2021 are deemed unable to cope or enjoy any good news, I fully expect them to have dug deep to find a few horror stories while carefully ignoring any figures that paint racing in a good light. A coulee f years ago I was lucky enough to be asked to write an article for Royal Ascot magazine on retired racehorses, and the hard work and dedication that goes in to turning them in to showjumpers, polo ponies, trail horses and working with the disabled has to be seen to be believed. Naturally not every horse gets the luxury treatment, and no, as it is simply isn’t good enough, but I do wonder why owners aren’t forced to take out a lifetime insurance when they buy a racehorse that ensures a field or paddock somewhere food water attention and the necessary veterinary treatment for the rest of their lives, and if. Can see that as an easy solution, why can’t the powers at the top of the racing tree?
If you would prefer to listen to our thoughts feel free to go to the free podcast where Ron Robinson of World Of Sport fame will join me at https://postracing.co.uk/2021/07/16/a-stellar-performance-from-sean-and-ron-last-week-winners-from-all-four-corners-of-the-globe/
Racing this weekend:
Saturday.
The Curragh 2.20pm
No great shock to anyone to report that Aidan O’Brien has taken four of the last ten runnings of this Group Two contest but he hasn’t had the winner since 2017, and we haven’t had a winning favourite in the last five years either. This year Ballydoyle rely on just one runner in the shape of The Entertainer but much as I would never be stupid enough to simply write him off, his two runs following a Navan maiden win don’t make him look anything near to a stable star, and it would be a surprise if there wasn’t something better in this small field. Hadman seems likely to take them along from the start for Joseph O’Brien and won’t prove easy to pass but seems to lack the class you would hope to see at this level, and a chance is taken on Beauty Inspire, an easy maiden winner who really caught the eye here in June when winning by close to four lengths, and I am hoping Ger Lyons has a good one on his hands, and with a price tag of £25,000 as a yearling, connections may well have a bargain.
The Curragh 2.50pm
Trainer Ed Lynam has won this twice in the last eight years and has a solid chance of the hat-trick with recent Listed winner Romantic Proposal but she drops back to five furlongs here and may find them a bit too fast early on before closing late on with more stamina than most on her CV at distances up to a mile. Three-year-olds don’t have the best of records here with a 12% strike rate in the last 24 years, but A’Ali won this last year and there is every chance that Logo Hunter will follow up for the younger generation. Yet to finish outside the first three in eight career starts and with four wins and two seconds form six starts this season, the son of Brazen Beau scored in Listed class at Cork last time out to keep his rating of 113 and if that is as good as he is, then he has plenty in hand of the rest of this field at these weights with his age allowance a bonus. Fellow youngster Measure Of Magic looks a very serious danger and will be far happier back on this quicker ground after a third at Royal Ascot on heavy and she looks a very big danger to the extent that I will almost certainly dutch the two.
The Curragh 3.25pm
This is a Classic and a Group One (obviously) so we cannot ignore it as a race, but as a betting medium there is precious little point. Epsom Oaks winner Snowfall is currently trading at a prohibitive 1/4 which is no great surprise after she tore apart her field in Surrey to win by a record 16 lengths, looking a machine in the process. I won’t be getting involved when you look and see that the second third fifth seventh eighth, and ninth were all beaten next time out, though the eleventh did win her maiden! Of course, she should win this but at those odds I will be keeping a watching brief, though if she loses, I will be head of the queue of those saying “I told you so” regardless.
Newbury 1.50pm
Three-year-olds do well here in receipt of their weight for age allowance and that does seem to bring Derab in to the equation after his six-length eighth in the French Derby behind new superstar St Marks Basilica. That was his best performance to date by some margin on just his fourth start and with the going likely to be just about perfect for him here, he does look difficult to bet against. Of the older horses, Stormy Antarctic is a personal favourite and a horse I have followed around the World, and although getting on a bit at the age of eight, he arrives in good form and won’t be far away for each way punters.
Newbury 3.00pm
Last year’s winner Tabdeed may well be the best horse in this field, but I am unconvinced he handles too much cut in the ground and with further rain a possibility, I am happy enough to look elsewhere (now watch the sun shine relentlessly). Charlie Hills has won this twice in the last six years suggesting outsider Royal Commander could outrun his price, but once more into the breach dear friends with Martyn Meade’s Method, though this may well be the last time barring a big run. Always held in high regard at home he didn’t bother the judge last time out in the July Cup but that is a Group One and looks the best sprint of the season so far, and this is a whole a lot easier. Blinkers seemed to have an adverse effect that day and are missing now, and at 11/1 or bigger I’ll be having a quid each way but nothing more exciting than that I’m afraid.
Newbury 3.40pm
Winners at all prices in this valuable five-furlong sprint for two-year-olds which is only open to horses bought for certain prices, effectively ruling out all the blue bloods that cost connections millions. Income was one I considered for trainer Richard Hughes with the return to the minimum trip very much in her favour and with Jamie Spencer an eye-catching jockey booking, while the Richard Hannon juveniles are inclined to improve for a run these days making Gubbass another to keep in mind. If we go on form then this ought to fall the way of Chipotle, the 22/1surprise winner of the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out when coming home two and a quarter lengths clear of the challengers. I am wary of the slower ground here, and even more importantly, the high draw (unless there is plenty of pace over there which is not guaranteed), but class is class, and the son of Havana Gold already looks great value at 10,000 Guineas and may well add another £98,000 to the kitty this afternoon.
Newmarket 3.30pm
The last four winners have all been three-year-olds which proves how valuable their age allowance can be in these contests, and a chance is taken on the turf debut of all-weather winner Abstinence, fourth in the Group Three Hopping’s Fillies Stakes at Newcastle last time when running on late over ten furlongs. Upped in trip here, she looks as if it will suit her, even as a daughter of Lope De Vega, and if she takes to the grass (why not), then she may prove good enough to win this.
Saratoga 11.16pm
Last weekend we did alright with the O’Brien challengers mopping up at Belmont and this week, it’s all about Charlie Appleby who has sent both Summer Romance and Althiqa over for the valuable (£200,000 to the winner) Grade One Diana Stakes over nine furlongs. Althiqa beat Summer Romance in to second last time out at Belmont, while Summer Romance was fifth to Althiqa at Meydan in January, so working out the winner of those two is tricky enough for starters. Luckily for me, I don’t think either of them are up to winning this thanks to the presence of Lemista, who is entitled to have needed her first start in America when second at Belmont having previously been trained in Ireland by Ger Lyons, and although she does have a few pounds to find, Chad Brown will have her spot on now and recent gallops suggest she is up for this level.
Sunday.
The Curragh 2.10pm
Seven furlongs for this Group Two contest and the first thing I noted as at the early declaration stage, was that Aidan O’Brien had four entries, but has now decided to rely on Order Of Australia and Military Style though working out the stable choice is a tough thing to do at present. Military Style is the possible improver after two wins from three starts at two before an acceptable if not earth shattering ninth in the National Stakes on his final outing last season. He could be anything or northing this season but must have been off for a reason and Order Of Australia has had a run this season when eighth to Palace Pier in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and with that run under his belt and this far weaker opposition, he won’t get many better chances of a Group Two success this season, regardless of the weights.
The Curragh 3.55pm
This looks like a sparkling line-up for a Group Two and with some seriously good fillies in the line-up. Create Belief seems sure to prove popular with the punters after wins here and at Ascot in May and June but all her best efforts have been on ground with plenty of cut in it, and there is no guarantee that she will get that here. Even if covid restrictions are no longer as problematical as they were before, the fact that Roger Varian sends Angel Power over from Newmarket with Silvestre De Sousa riding suggests they mean business, and although the daughter of Lope De Vega hasn’t had a run this season, she won first-time out last season and clearly goes well fresh. She isn’t mind if the word soft does end up in the going description but has won on good going too and if she is sharp enough, she may well be the one they all have to beat.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Taylored 6.10pm Ripon Saturday
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