ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Starting off in foreign climes with the chit-chat this week, and much as I have no issues with Harry Bentley personally, you have to wonder what he was (or wasn’t) thinking when passing on information in Hong Kong which ultimately saw him suspended for two months and fined about £32,000. The story goes that he passed on information about trackwork barrier trials and races to an unknown individual via a private phone given to him for that purpose – though no money actually changed hands which may have been his saving grace. They don’t mess about in Hong Kong when it comes to indiscretions and the fact that his ban is as short as it is suggests to me a bit of naivety on the jockey’s part more than any full-blown skulduggery, but it does make you wonder where we should all draw a line?
What do think about our own jockeys (and trainers) taking money from various bookmakers for a brief article each weekend on their horse’s chances? At first glance it is all the more information for us punters to use in our never ending search for winners, but look a bit deeper and what you actually have is a bookmaker who now has information about a horse’s chances, good or bad – in advance of setting up their prices for an event – is that all that different to Harry’s “crime”? In the UK is somehow seen as acceptable, and we have all wondered whether the bigger yards have “an informer” on the bookies payroll (I have certainly known of unraced horses to back only to find the bookies were fully aware and opened said horse at a ridiculously short price), but would that not be seen as insider trading in any other business I wonder – something to think about if nothing else?
Moving on and something us British just love to talk about – the weather. I am no expert on climate change and what is or isn’t causing it, but it certainly feels as if the seasons are changing, and I wonder if racing is prepared? There has already been some environmental sustainability work done by the BHA, Racing Foundation, Racecourse Association, and The Thoroughbred Group, but the problem may be, and excuse the pun, a perfect storm. With the expectations of drier summers and wetter winters added to the financial impacts of the dreaded affordability checks, where does racing find the money from? In simple terms (and they don’t come any simpler than me), we need more and better drainage for those tracks under threat from the wet weather (Southwell would seem a prime example), and better watering systems for those struggling in the summer (Bath, I am talking to you for starters!). There also has to be a question as to just how long racing will even be allowed to water unless they have their own supply, and if I had any money to invest, companies who bore water holes may not be a bad idea as they seem the easiest and most obvious solution – though at a cost.
Meanwhile, we all sit here criticising British racing, but what do well think about those on the other side of the sea in Ireland? Looking at the recent results for the National Hunt season, and certain trainers need reporting to the monopolies commission – if they have one! Last weekend we saw Down Royal where Gordon Elliott won the first five races on the card, and two more at Gowran Park, and if you add in Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead (Sundays Naas card saw them win five races between them), and they seem to have a stranglehold over the better races. Good luck to them I hear you say, but with shorter-prices more likely than not, punters are up against the wall looking to make a profit. They could focus on the lesser contests where the bigger yards aren’t represented anywhere near as often, but trust me, the formbook goes out of the window more often than not at that level, and following the money may be your only route to riches.
Lastly, low sun has (literally) reared its ugly head once more with numerous races seeing fences and hurdles omitted for safely reasons. Now I may be naïve but to the best of my knowledge the sun has been there a while and is nothing new, yet racing does nothing about it – why oh why? Some are arguing (not me, by the way) that there should be an option to have you bet declared void if less than x% of the obstacles are jumped, and I can understand that (imagine backing your selection because it is the best jumper in the field only to find the race turns into a glorified bumper), but I suspect that is beyond the will (not the ability) of the bookmakers, but racing could still do more. The time of the sun going down is not an unknown so why not put the bumper in that slot if there is one, or at the very least, two mile races so there is less of an impact? At the very least make sure the best race of the day is NOT run at that time and can be left untouched, placating a few angry punters if nothing else.
Tired eyes but your ears are good – try the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/11/16/low-sun-wet-ground-and-irish-racing-all-shot-at-this-week/
Saturday Racing
1.19pm Wetherby
How can I resist a race sponsored by a gin produced (Slingsby gin) as a big fan myself, and with 11 runners at least we have something to get our teeth into. Haafapiece may prove popular after his C&D second earlier in the month on his first start since March, and although his last success was in January 2022, it was off a mark 11lb higher than he suffers here, suggesting he has a pretty decent chance. That said, he won’t be improving at the age of 10, and I will take an each way chance on old favourite Molly Ollys Wishes instead. She is no spring chicken either at the age of nine, but interestingly she has a two out of two record here with wins over two miles in October 2021 and October 2022 – so this is her time of year (ish). She returned for the new season at Chepstow on heavy ground when a frankly disappointing eighth and beaten 22 lengths, but that was a better race and she runs off 3lb lower now. She does need to bounce back to form in first time cheekpieces to get involved here, but she has won in Listed class, and is potentially well-handicapped off this mark IF she can recapture her better efforts.
1.54pm Wetherby
A two and a half mile handicap chase that certainly looks a tricky one to solve, with not one of the seven finally declared winning last time out, with Cornerstone Lad’s third at Perth in April the only place, and much as I like both horse and the trainer, he may be better at two miles than at this trip based on all his winning form. Erne River has won here over further but ran too badly to be true at Aintree last month when beaten over 100 lengths making him hard to make a case for at present, so it looks like I have to take a risk on Lets Go To Vegas, though with very small stakes. A winner over hurdles at Market Rasen and Ludlow last year, she makes her debut over fences this afternoon but she sneaks in here off bottom weight, won first time out last season suggesting she goes well fresh, and represents the Alastair Ralph yard who are particularly astute at placing their horses in the correct level, so hopefully we will get a decent run for our money.
2.20pm Cheltenham
Just the one selection from Cheltenham this Saturday so why not have a closer look at the best and perhaps the most difficult to solve on the card – and throw some statistics at it in the search for the winner. My records stretch back to 1997 and we can soon see the following facts: Only one winner priced bigger than 25/1 (none bigger than 33/1), none who completed last time out but failed to finish in the first eight, (only one from outside the first seven), no four-year-old winner and none aged 10 or older, only one rated lower than 136, and one rated higher than 156. Only one had raced more than twice in the current season, all bar two came from the first eight in the betting, and perhaps most interestingly, ALL of them had won over two miles three and a half furlongs or further prior to today. Using those to make up a shortlist and we managed to get rid of just seven of them giving us all a big clue as to just how competitive this race really is. The fact that the classy top-weight The Real Whacker and the Willie Mullins trained Authorized Act were both part of the “cull” has to be a concern, while Paul Nicholls may be the only trainer represented on the final shortlist with a previous winner, but a record of 47 runners for two winners and 10 places doesn’t make Stage Star or Il Ridoto unbeatable, and I am going to side with Angels Breath as an each way option. Trained by Sam Thomas, the nine-year-old has won two of his four starts over fences, both at Ascot, and as he looked as if he would improve for the race when second on his return over hurdles here last month, he could go well on his return to the larger obstacles.
2.36pm Lingfield
On to the all-weather in Surrey now for a mile and a quarter Listed race won by Mister Cut for George Boughey last season, the third winning favourite in a row. Regal Reality heads the market at the time of writing for Sir Michael Stoute after he came home second in the Group Two Joel Stakes at Newmarket in late September when running on late over the mile, and as he won a better race over this trip at Sandown back in 2019, we know he has the ability needed. Blue Trail is an obvious danger if he is ready to roll having been off the track since finishing ninth at Newmarket back in April, but he has been off for a reason which is enough to put me off, and each way players may do better with Forest Of Dean, the only C&D winner in the field and representing the stable who won this in 2019 and 2020.
3.11pm Lingfield
Six furlongs this time, Listed class, and with three winning favourites in a row once again. Willem Twee looks a typical James Fanshawe horse getting better with age, and as a winner last time out at Kempton, he could hit one of the places under Oisin Murphy, though he is taking a big step up from handicap company. Mischief Magic heads the market at a pretty short price after his winning return following a gelding operation in a Class Two at Kempton and he does look by far the likeliest winner having competed unsuccessfully in the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in June, but he isn’t bulletproof by any means, and I prefer the each way chances of Pink Crystal, trading at 8/1 as I write. A winner in this grade at Ayr in September, she followed that with a length third at Ascot in the Group Three Bengough Stakes, finishing well after failing to get a clear run, and at the early prices, she certainly appears to be a sort of value if nothing else.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Pink Crystal 311pm Lingfield each way
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