Pretty poor even by my standards last week but even I can’t be held responsible when some (not all) of my suggestions ran so far below par to suggest all was not well, or they had been to the track too quickly since their last efforts.
This weekend I have to go it alone as my partner in crime on the podcasts has dared to take a holiday (outrageous) though if he comes back recharged from a break in Wales all the less work for me next time (hopefully) when the podcast will return and if you haven’t given it a try may I suggest you do if you like two old blokes talking about racing until the cows come home?
Before we get on with the days ahead a brief mention of the “shock news” that Investec are pulling out as sponsor of the Epsom Derby. The sad/interesting thing is that they were contracted for another six years yet Jockey Club Racecourses have allowed them to end it early suggesting to me there may be less panic than the media would have you believe and that they are quietly confident a new sponsor can be found with little issue. If not, you have to wonder why all parties have acted as they have, though obviously I am not privy to the small print and any break clauses that may be in force.
On to the weekend ahead and working on the big or most informative races has brought occasional reward, so on we go…
1.40pm Newmarket Saturday
Maidens are hardly the races I normally bother you with but reports from the Newmarket gallops suggest that Charlie Appleby’s Dhahabi has been burning them up in recent weeks, in which case he may well make a winning debut here with James Doyle in the saddle. A son of the legendary Frankel (the best horse I have ever see Worldwide), he set Godolphin back 3,100,000 Guineas as a yearling at the Tatts October sales last year and needs to be pretty decent to replay that sort of investment, and although I can’t claim he will win a Guineas, he could well start his career off on the right note here.
3.35pm Ascot Saturday – King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes
Shocking is the word that springs to mind. A Group One, close to a quarter of a million pounds to the winner – and just the four runners, three of those trained by Aidan O’Brien. “Her majesty” (aka Enable) will go off odds on in this field as she bids to repeat last season’s success, but did she need the run when second in the Coral Eclipse – or is she simply not the force of old? Japan is presumably the O’Brien number one with Ryan Moore in the saddle and tactics among the Irish trio will undoubtedly play their part, but the realist is that this is not a contact I can really get excited about betting wise. In simple terms, if Enable is back to her best she ought to win and do so comfortably – but that is not a guarantee and a watching brief is sadly the sensible move to make.
2.10pm Greyville (South Africa) Saturday – Vodacom Durban July
Not a race I would normally cover individually but I go most years and thanks to the modern plague of Covid, I am reluctantly stuck at home. It is a Grade One and perhaps the biggest race on the South African calendar, and a party to beat all others with so much colour and fun – well, in past years anyway. Their racing may be in the financial doldrums, but never underestimate the depth of their racing industry with decent horses, top class trainers and some of the most amazing stud farms anywhere to be found. The race itself is a handicap which is an ouch moment for me, though the fact that favourite Belgarion trades at 9/2 at least suggests if we can find a placed horse, we could yet turn a profit. Do It Again is looking to land a hat trick of wins which is quite ridiculous in such a competitive event and he looks to have be brought to the boil nicely for this season with the step up in trip sure to suit and he should go well once again and is sorely tempting for trainer Justin Snaith (who is also responsible for the favourite), but a chance is taken on Mike De Kock’s Soqrat (each way), with his trainer seemingly confident of a big run. Second last time out at Turffontein he should be cherry rip now (with any luck), and if that is the case and he gets a clear run (trust me, this is usually a pretty rough race as they fight for position up the relatively narrow straight), then we could well get a good return for our money.
3.05pm Ascot Sunday – Valiant Fillies’ Stakes
An interesting race to watch at the very least and one that really ought to go to Falmouth Stakes runner-up Billesdon Brook at these weights. Richard Hannon’s filly was only beaten a neck that day and does have too many second places on her record for my liking (six to be exact) but she has also won seven times and more importantly, won’t mind the forecast good going. That comment does not necessarily apply to William Haggas’ unbeaten Miss O Connor who has a four from four record, but all on a far softer surface and with no guarantee she doesn’t need cut in the turf to give her best. She may well have more to offer this season and could well make me eat my words but as things stand, she still has a few pounds to find and may have to settle for second spot this afternoon for the first time.
3.40pm Ascot Sunday – Princess Margaret Stakes
Not a race I would normally even consider with a short priced Aidan O’Brien trained Ryan Moore ridden favourite, but when I spot something that could be value, I have to share it with you (like it or not). More Beautiful heads the market after a win in a Naas maiden followed by a ninth in the Queen Mary Stakes when one paced late on over a furlong shorter, but good as she clearly is, her price looks laughable at this stage of her career. She trades at 5/4 at the time of writing yet way down the list I can’t help but notice On My Way at a far bigger 20/1. Sent off a 13/2 shot on debut she made all of the running form the off at Chelmsford before coming home two and three-quarter lengths clear despite running green, suggesting she has plenty more to offer in the long term. That form frankly isn’t good enough to win this so she needs to do more, but would she be that price were she not trained by Jayne Chapple-Hyam with John Egan in the saddle? Swap those names for (as an example) John Gosden and Franke Dettori and I suspect 4/1 would be her SP at the off, and if she can get away smartly once again, she may be able to overcome the one draw and lead them all a merry dance.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Dhahabi 1.40pm Newmarket Saturday
Soqrat each-way 2.10pm Greyville (South Africa) Saturday
On My Way each-way (very small stakes) 3.40pm Ascot Sunday
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