An interesting week as always in this sport (that’s one of the many reasons I love horse racing – news every single day), though I am still hurting about the terrible run put in by Capeland last Saturday letting me and everyone else down in the process. Although it may sound like me crying over spilt milk (very possible I suppose), but I do wonder why a horse who we knew was fit after he won last time out, and representing a yard in great form (Paul Nicholls) drifted for 6/1 to 18/1 in places before the off before trying to duck out at the first and then pulling up when never in with a chance of mounting a challenge? It never ceases to amaze me that if a horse is gambled on and wins, questions are asked, yet a horse drifts like a barge and the silence is deafening? I am most certainly not a conspiracy theorist of any kind BUT things like this make your average punter scratch their heads, and I do feel they need looking at to ensure the honesty of our sport.
Meanwhile on Saturday, what did we all make of the return of Buveur D’Air when second to outsider of three Navajo Pass on bottomless ground at Haydock? To disagree with Nicky Henderson may not be the done thing in the racing world, but why he would run a horse after over a year off in such atrocious conditions is beyond me, and it came as no huge surprise to see him blow up late on and be beaten at odds on. Naturally, we were all disappointed with the run and expected more, but Nicky is adamant he is being trained for one race and one race alone (the Champion Hurdle) and that he will come on considerably for the outing. As someone holding an ante post slip priced at 33/1, I cannot pretend I wasn’t gutted that he failed to win a race that would have been a cakewalk in his heyday, but he did come home in one piece which is the main thing, and lives to fight another day with a place still a possibility at Cheltenham come March (or is that wishful thinking).
Rant over and plenty of decent racing this weekend to get our teeth into (yet again) so let’s go to work!
Saturday Racing:
1.58pm Fairyhouse
Some fair competition at last for the currently unbeaten Gauloise as the daughter of Samum step up a quarter of a mile today which seems sure to suit. Bought after winning a bumper at Lignieres in April last year she has won both starts over hurdles fairly easily without really catching the eye, and we can but hope that her rivals today give her a real test so we can get a better idea of just how good she really is. A win in Listed company at Thurles last time suggests she will comfortably hold her own in this class but there are some half decent horses in this field who may yet make her pull out all the stops, giving us a chance to witness how she jumps under that bit more pressure. Mighty Blue looks a serious rival to me even if she was put in her place by the selection last time out, and when she learns to settle earlier in her races, she could go on to be half decent. If that is today then we have a race on our hands as she is four pounds better off for three lengths here, and I will take her for second spot, with Royal Kahala one of many other dangers and another worth keeping a careful eye on for both today and future contests.
1.30pm Doncaster
Fingers crossed this meeting gets the go ahead and a chance for us all to see just how good Shishkin is ahead of the Arkle in March, where he is already a ridiculous odds on shot, close to two months in advance of the festival. His only two career defeats were in his first point to point at Inch, and when he fell in a maiden hurdle at Newbury, but other than that, he has an exemplary record. The head winner of the Supreme Hurdle last March, he has been in scintillating form over fences with two comfortable wins at Kempton, the latest in the Wayward Lad chase on the 27th of December. He faces a different challenge this afternoon but seems equally happy on all the extremes of going, making him a very potent weapon indeed, but I won’t be backing him at a silly price here, though I might throw him in to a short price accumulator for a bit of a laugh, as the truth is, I can’t pick between the rest of them for the forecast either.
2.05pm Doncaster
Some very decent mares have taken home first prize over the years including Annie Power in 2014, Vroum Vroum Mag in 2017, and Lady Buttons in both 2019 and 2020, and it will be interesting to see if anything of that high quality comes out of this season’s renewal. At the weights, second favourite Miranda comes out best in on the ratings and she is worthy of serious consideration today. She won despite errors at Ludlow in early December and wasn’t disgraced with a length and a quarter fourth last time out at Musselburgh, though she steps up in class here and may need to do a little bit more to come home in front (like jump fluently, for example). Floressaheads the early markets for Nicky Henderson and has a very similar profile with a win at Newbury and a fourth at Kempton, but they were in Listed class followed by the Christmas Hurdle when outclassed behind Silver Streak, Epatante, and Ballyandy, but she really ought to find this lesser class contest back against her own sex much easier pickings. For reasons unknown the handicapper seems to have ignored that run (I would rate her nearer to 148 than 143 on the pure form of that effort), and I am willing to back that thought up with a bet today on the mount of Nico De Boinville.
2.40pm Doncaster
This looks a seriously competitive renewal with an unlucky thirteen declared at the two day stage, and the favourite trading as big as 9/2 in the shape of Flash Collonges. Trained by Paul Nicholls, who last won this back in 2012, he tries this trip for the first time but certainly wasn’t stopping over shorter when winning by over eight lengths at Wincanton, despite swerving left, though that must surely worry his supporters as it does me? Bobhopeornohope is as game as they come and looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip and is harder to gauge than some making him a fly in the ointment in this field, as is Emir Sacree who can only improve for his first run for Nicky Henderson when winning at Ascot after 635 days off the track, and ought to be in the mix if staying this trip as expected. With so many possibilities it really is tough to call but I do wonder why The Cob is as big as 20/1 for trainer Ben Pauling (who has won this twice in the last five years with Barters Hill and then Nadaitak), suggesting he clearly knows the sort needed, and the rapidly improving Fern Hill who is my each way suggestion at 12/1. Three runs over hurdles have seen a third over an inadequate two miles at Uttoxeter, followed by two wins at Wetherby over two and a half miles or so and then two and three quarter miles when staying on to regain the lead close home. Clearly a battler when needed, I am convinced he will be even better suited by the three miles plus this afternoon and at the prices, he looks to have a decent chance of a place at the very least.
3.15pm Doncaster.
Another unlucky for some thirteen runners in this once a week handicap, and once again we will have a go at solving it via a bit of maths and stats – sometimes it works, most times it doesn’t, but that’s handicaps for you. Looking back at the last twenty runnings (Yes, I am an anorak) and I note that only one eleven year old or older has ever won this race, meaning I will risk putting a biro through Give Me A Copper, Yorkhill, Guitar Pete, and Taking Risks, leaving just the nine possible winners lol. Interestingly no horse rated above 151 has been successful either (Mister Malarkey), while 15 or the 20 winners have been in the first six in the betting – not a perfect stat but I am running out of ideas. I am now down to a shortlist of Cap Du Nord, Canelo, One For The Team, Aye Right, and Musical Slave, so time to see where they sit at the weights. Not one of them has won off their current mark, meaning they are all being asked to put up a career best effort in my eyes, but Aye Right is within five pounds of his best winning mark and is a distance winner to boot, making the 12/1 or so about him my idea of a risk each way all to the smallest of stakes.
Sunday Racing:
1.15pm Naas
Plenty of short priced winners of this event over the years with six of the last ten odds on and another favourite (5/4) as well, and 5/1 the longest price in a decade, so one for the favourite backers perhaps? Without a course winner in the field, we need to look at two by the look of things in what looks to be a match between Beacon Edge and Bacchasson who ought to have this between them if everything runs to form, of course. The last named represent Willie Mullins who has won two of the last three runnings and is unbeaten this season with successes at Clonmel and then Punchestown, one over fences and one over hurdles, both pretty easily to be fair. He won’t be far away in receipt of seven pounds from Beacon Edge, Noel Meade’s improving sort who ran his best race yet when failing to give seven pounds to the classy Honeysuckle in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle in late November, form which to me looks marginally the stronger. At the age of seven I am hoping he has even more to offer and he will be my selection this afternoon, though I will also be keeping a very close eye on the ex-American Winston C who has some solid form over there and could be the surprise package this afternoon, though I am pretty sure he will have never seen ground this soft before in his entire life, during training or on the track.
3.15pm Naas
One glance at the early betting and I can say the bookies are not giving anything away at this stage with the first four in the betting priced at 5/2, 3/1, 7/2, and 4/1 – not very generous there I am afraid to say. Escaria Ten looks likely to start favourite come Sunday afternoon after his very easy win at Thurles last time out where he only really made the one bad error, buy the Gordon Elliott yard are only just starting to find their way back to form, and he may be best taken on under those circumstances. Pencilfulloflead is another to consider but is in the same yard which raises a few questions and I very narrowly prefer Eklat De Rire for Henry De Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore. A moderate maiden winner over hurdles, he looked different gravy on his chasing debut at Punchestown when running on strongly over this trip to win going away again at the death, and although sent off the well supported 2/1 jolly that day, it was his first run in nine months, and he seems sure to strip fitter now. 7/2 still isn’t a decent price and I may not even have a bet myself, with rank outsider Miss Pernickety knawing at my brain as an each way alternative. She has a stone and more to find with most if not all of these, and only gets seven pounds from the majority, but I keep asking myself why Joseph O’Brien is allowing her to line up in such exalted company? She won despite her jumping and not because of it at Naas last time out, flashing her tail in the process which is hardly a positive sign in any book, yet I seem drawn to her as an each way alternative (to pennies), and will be sulking for the rest of the day should she come home in front unbacked.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to Cheltenham podcast instead here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/01/27/the-cheltenham-or-bust-podcast-27-01-21/ and the weekly podcast here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/01/29/cheltenham-has-gone-and-doncaster-looks-dodgy-but-weve-got-it-covered/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Not on the going they are facing this weekend I’m afraid!
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