I’m a bit of a busy bunny this week I am sorry to say, so my views on current events will be “off the cuff” via the podcast which is linked for you all below, leaving me to focus all of my time on finding some more winners (did you back the 22/1 winner I suggested each way last weekend)?
The one thing I will comment on is the very sad legal case between Freddy Tylicki and Graham Gibbons over the riding incident that left poor Freddy paralysed. I am hoping all this is about insurance payouts because if Freddy wins the case the I am quietly confident Graham does not have the cash under his mattress to pay the compensation, but either way, there are no winners here. If Freddy wins, will that put people off taking up riding if they know they are open to court action for any incidents, and if Graham wins it’s the same, who would want to be a jockey knowing a life changing injury can happen at any time – and nothing will be done about it. All I can say without taking sides is perhaps it should be mandatory for all jockeys to have significant insurance (£2 million as an arbitrary figure), just in case – after which they could sign a waiver not to sue their fellow jockeys or anyone else, as the insurance would prove them with sufficient cover?
Bored of reading – feel free to listen here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2021/12/02/12-1-winner-of-the-royal-bond-and-seans-on-a-roll-literally/
And on to the racing….
Friday
Exeter 2.05pm
An interesting two mile three furlong novice chase to start off Friday afternoon, and one dominated in the last ten years by five and six year olds, with all of those winners priced at under 10/1, suggesting the bookies will be treading very carefully. For me this appears to rest between the top two on the card, but the interesting thing about either horse is that their respective stables are both struggling for winners in the last two weeks, which could yet be an issue. I am a big fan of Harry Fry who is one of racing’s “good guys” and Boot Hill seems sire to go well after being given a pipe opener when a close up third over hurdles, but if Adrimel can get back to his best, he could be the one they all have to beat.
A point-to-point win was followed by two successes in bumpers and three more over hurdles at up to Grade Two level, though he did let his supporters down when pulled up at both Cheltenham (in the Albert Bartlett after losing a shoe), and then at Aintree (in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle). That said, his breeding has always suggested he would peak over the larger obstacles as a half-brother to Auteuil winner Gus De Gene and he is also closely related to Welsh Grand National winner Halcon Genelardais, and first time out may be the best time to catch him, though I doubt there will be much between the two of them with a clear round.
Sandown 2.25pm
Two and half miles over hurdles next today in a race won by 5/4f Star Gate last season for Evan Williams, though he has nothing in the final line-up in 2021 despite putting forward an early declaration. Just the five runners this year though every one of them came home in front last time out which makes life interesting, though I have come down on the side of Viva Lavilla who looks overpriced to me. If I am reading the race correctly, both favourite Brave Kingdom (Paul Nicholls) and Fair Frontiers (Kim Bailey) will want to make all the running, and that may well mean they go off too fast together and set the race up for a closer over the last hurdle. My suggestion is unbeaten after a point-to-point and a maiden hurdle and is stepping up in class, but the Skelton stable remain in great form, we don’t know how good he really is yet, and he will be travelling sweetly in behind looking to pick up the pieces should the front two fail to get home up the Sandown hill.
Saturday:
Aintree 12.20pm
A Listed race restricted to mares here but punters be warned, only two favourites have won in the five renewals, and considering the small fields, that could yet be a telling statistic. Elimay is the glaringly obvious choice though yet again, I doubt we will find any odds against, and if we do, that would only suggest she is not fully wound up for her return and make me think again anyway. The Willie Mullins yard are beginning to get going now and she seems to be getting better all the time over making her difficult to oppose. Annie Mc who looks her biggest danger and soft ground should suit both animals but with their relative fitness unknown, if I have a bet at all it will be on whoever is sent off favourite on the day.
Aintree 1.30pm
Juvenile hurdles are notoriously difficult to predict with the potential for any amounts of improvement as they gain in experience over the hurdles, and with four of these a winner last time out we have that issue to face here. I can just about see why Gavin Cromwell’s White Pepper trades as favourite after his easy maiden win but 7/4 is far too skinny for my liking and I will take an each-way chance on Addosh instead. She does have to give weight away thanks to winning a Class Two event at Market Rasen, and has been unlucky in both starts since, unseating at Wetherby and falling at the last at Cheltenham. She was going well enough on each occasion to suggest a win and a place were on the cards had she got round, and barring mishaps here she ought to prove difficult to keep out of the frame.
Aintree 2.05pm
Two odds on shots in a row won this in 2018 and 2019 but were followed by 16/1 chance Lake View Lad, making this three mile one furlong event that little bit more interesting that your average Grade Two Chase in early December. Dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll will no doubt prove popular with the on-course crowd and when he is in the right mood he is more than capable of winning this, and at a double figure price, I wouldn’t try to put anyone off an each way bet. Favourite Protektorat is yet to win over further than two and a half miles and his rivals will be well aware he has stamina questions to answer, while Native River is a personal favourite but may prefer the ground to be even softer than he will face on Saturday afternoon.
Navan 12.33pm
Trainer Willie Mullins has won six of the ten renewals of this Grade Two Novice Hurdle, though amazingly he doesn’t have a runner this year despite his massed battalions of high-class options. That at least leaves the field open for someone else, and Ginto may be the one to take advantage for Gordon Elliott after he ran away with his maiden hurdle here over course and distance. On paper his biggest rival is probably Joseph O’Brien’s Eric Bloodaxe and that may be the forecast for you, while he holds Mr Fred Rogers on a line through Shantreusse who he beat eight lengths in a bumper here in February, while his stable companion only beat the same horse by a length and a half over hurdles when scoring at Punchestown last month.
Navan 1.43pm
When the original early declarations came out for this race I will feely admit I started getting excited! Appreciate It, Dreal Deal, and Ferny Hollow would have made a three-horse race worth watching, but the final line-up sees two of the three give the race a swerve and Dreal Deal with a bit of a “gimmee” (famous last words). In September 2020, he won a handicap hurdle here off a mark of 84, and then rattled up five further successes in a row before going to the well once too often when seventh of twelve (and the last to finish) in the Mersey Hurdle (Grade One) at Aintree. His prowess over fences is of course unknown, but he did some home third and second in his two point-to-points (beaten a length in the last one), and with the better ground ideal for him and not necessarily for others, he may well be up to winning over fences at the first attempt.
Sandown 1.50pm
I am a huge fan of Sandown and have been to see this race many times, though whether another Altior or Allmankind is in this field, only time will tell (but I doubt it). Edwardstone would probably win this hard held if it was over hurdles and is a big danger to Third Time Lucki, but his jumping still looks a bit suspect despite a win last time out at Warwick and I am wary that he may get caught out by the fences up the home straight that come in quick succession. Dan Skelton’s horse, on the other hand, has jumper fluently in the main despite pulling too hard in both wins at Cheltenham, and we all know those fences take some jumping. If he learns to settle a little better to save something for the Sandown hill then he looks the one to be on here in a race that looks easier to win than it has in recent seasons.
Sandown 2.25pm
I will upset a few people by saying I don’t think this is the deepest Tingle Creek ever seen, a race named after an all-time great who was ridden back in the day by my good friend Steve Smith-Eccles, the teller of many brilliant racing stories (many of which could never be published here). I am suspecting odds on about Chacun Pour Soi here for the Willie Mullins yard, and if he is at his best, rightly so. Seven wins from ten starts over fences include five Grade Ones with the Champion Chase at Punchestown in April his last start, and when you add in a length and a half third in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham last March, you can hopefully see why he looks very difficult to oppose, with Nube Negra my suggestion for those who fancy backing the forecast.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Chacun Pour Soi 2.25pm Sandown Saturday
Dreal Deal 1.43pm Navan Saturday
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