It would be remiss of me not to start this article with some kind of comment on the Christophe Soumillon incident which I am sure you have all seen on numerous replays. As you know, he has been banned by France galop for 60 days and lost his job with HH The Aga Khan, but do you think he was hung out to dry with such a severe punishment – or should he have been banned for life as some seem to think? The first thing to mention is that I do not ride – so my opinion is based on watching racing and thus comes from a base of ignorance, but it is (apparently) fairly standard behaviour to ride with your elbow out if you are looking to discourage your opponent from leaning in to you (which IMO Rossa was from the little I have seen, and I am told he bumped Christophe’s horse three times before the incident), and even more interestingly, there are plenty of jockeys out there standing up for the Belgian despite the injury risks his move created. I am positive that with hindsight Soumillon would not repeat his actions, and it has to have been unlucky to actually push a jockey out of the saddle so easily (he caught him off balance at a guess), meaning 60 days and the loss of a very lucrative retainer seems punishment enough to me.
While we are talking French racing, I was lucky enough to be at the Arc last weekend as a guest of France Galop, and I have to say I enjoyed it far more than my last visit decades ago. Once again the Brits and Irish took over the place with the majority of the crowd from across the sea at a guess, and our runners certainly did us proud, taking four races on the Saturday and a further three on the Sunday, including the Arc itself of course. I have been racing for about 40 years now, all around the World, and I have rarely if ever seen the sort of reception afforded to Sir Mark Prescott, Luke Morris, Kirsten Rausing, and Alpinista after she won the big race, with loud applause, three cheers, and beaming smiles from everyone – even the connections of the horses she beat. It was most certainly “I was there moment” as the grey became the first Arc winner for trainer, jockey, owner, and sire Frankel, and better still, she held off Vadeni under Christophe Soumillon close home – can you imagine the headlines had he won the race!
Looking to the future and we have the Persian War Hurdle from Chepstow this afternoon (Friday), reminding me that the jumps season is upon us – though personally I always see it as starting on the 1st November. That gives me the chance to nominate the horses I am most looking forward to seeing over the months ahead, and although I doubt we will get rich following them, I can’t wait for the return of Constitution Hill over hurdles, and Jonbon over fences, both in the care of the remarkable Nicky Henderson. Both are reported to have grown and strengthened over the summer (which seems incomprehensible for Constitution Hill), and if that is the case then I am quite happy with the fact that I just took some of the 5/1 for Jonbon for the Arkle, and some of the 7/4 about his stablemate for the Champion Hurdle in what could be a fascinating match-up with Honeysuckle at Cheltenham 2023.
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On to the racing:
Saturday
Newmarket 1.50pm
The Zetland Stakes over a mile and a quarter is a serious and rare stamina test for the two-year-olds but that is what we have here, with Charlie Appleby’s Royal Lodge Stakes third Flying Honours already trading at a pretty short price. He may yet prove far too good for these, but at the prices I would rather have a small each way bet on the Sean Woods trained Band Of Steel, currently trading at odds of 20/1. The son of Golden Horn made all for an easy win at Wolverhampton last time out, but it’s the booking of Ryan Moore that catches my eye as he rarely rides horses without some kind of chance. He does need to improve I admit, but if he makes the running again, there are few if any better at setting the fractions than Ryan, and they may find if difficult to run him down close home.
Curragh 2.00pm
It will come as no great shock when I tell you trainer Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last eight runnings of the Group Three Staffordstown Stud Stakes, and he looks all set for another with Be Happy, the winner of her only start with ease, despite looking as if she would learn plenty from the experience. With Ryan Moore at Newmarket, Wayne Lordan keeps the ride which I see as a positive as he knows the daughter of Camelot having been on board for her Cork success, and although there are plenty of rivals with potential, I suspect she may be the best of the lot.
York 2.05pm
It never ceases to amaze me how these end of season contests attract large fields, yet a matter of weeks ago we were talking three and four runner races at the weekend – go figure? Anyway, rant over and we have a field of up to nine in action for the Listed Rockingham Stakes over six-furlongs, where we have the standard mixture of exposed horses and two with plenty of room for improvement. Although once again I can see why we have a fairly short-priced favourite in the shape of Alpha Capture, a winner at Carlisle and a short-head second at Doncaster, I am more than happy to take him on with the Johnny Murtagh trained Bay Of Plenty. The gelded son of New Bay caught the eye when winning on his only start at Naas, travelling well before being denied a run not once but twice, and then quickening up from out of nowhere to be comfortably on top at the line. He was as green as grass as well making this a remarkable victory, and although the form may not add up to a hill of beans, he won’t be travelling over from Ireland for the duty free fags, and he may go mighty close at a decent each way price.
Newmarket 2.25pm
Just the six contenders for the Autumn Stakes but with one (possible) exception, they do look well-matched. Silver Knott heads the early betting but his bubble was burst when last of three in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last time out when the softer going didn’t suit – but there is no guarantee it will be much quicker here. In my view the form of Holloway Boy is the stronger with his second to nostrum looking better by the minute and he may be the biggest danger to Epictetus, the Gosden’s once-raced son of Kingman who impressed when taking his maiden. Already quoted for the Epsom Derby 2023, that may be beyond wishful thinking, but he did travel well throughout that day, and looks the sort to just keep on improving with more experience.
Curragh 2.35pm
This is not a race I like to be honest, but it is Listed class so I have to deal with whatever is put in front of me. All I can say add that three-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, so I will start there, leaving me with a choice of seven for what it’s worth. None of them exactly set my pulse racing, and for that reason and the forecast prices, if I have a bet at all, it will be a small each way one on Tartan Skirt, who is potentially overpriced. An easy winner of her maiden here over C&D in October last year, she then ran a stinker in a Naas handicap in a race I feel may be best ignored. Owned and trained by the astute Michael
O’Callaghan, she has her first start of the year and is tried in blinkers for the first time to help her focus, and although she could finish first or last, she seems as good a selection as any.
Newmarket 3.00pm
The Dewhurst Stakes looks to me to be the best two-year-old race of the season by a long way, and whoever wins this may well go into the winter as the 2023 2000 Guineas favourite. When to see that Goodwood Vintage Stakes winner Marbaan is the 25/1 outsider of the field you can be confident there is strength in depth here, with Richmond Stakes winner Royal Scotsman at 20/1 this is going to be some contest. Trainer Charlie Appleby seems supremely confident that Naval Power is the one to beat as he looks for his fifth win on his fifth start, while Nostrum is also unbeaten with two easy wins, the latest over this course and distance. With Issac Shelby apparently out as I write (shame, he would have been my selection), my hands are tied and that leads me to end up on Naval Power, whose breeding suggests he has more stamina than his rivals, and with the likelihood of a test from the start via Chaldean, he may outstay his more precocious rivals in a race I would rather watch than have a bet in.
Newmarket 3.40pm
A two and a quarter mile handicap with 23 runners is a big ask for anyone to solve but I do like a challenge, and they don’t get much tougher than this. Naturally, I will be delving through statistics looking for clues (we call it profiling), and the first interesting one is that we are yet to see a winner priced shorter than 9/2 in the last 25 runnings – and if that is maintained this year, we instantly lose both favourite Ahorsewithnoname and second favourite Run For Oscar which puts the cat among the pigeons. No winner has carried more than nine stone ten (bye to Ranch Hand), but after that we are playing with the percentages – it is that open. Only one winner was aged ten or older (farewell Oh So Sleepy), and only three had finished outside of the top-six on their previous start (night night to Rock Eagle, Scaramanga, Moliwood and Mukha Magic). 21 winners came from the top 13 in the betting (I am struggling now – can you tell?) which gives me a new shortlist (on current prices), of Evaluation, Gibraltar, Baby Zeus, Favorite Moon, Going Gone, Vino Victrix, Zoffee, Inchinor, HMS President, and Prince Imperial. Only four winners have carried more than nine stone four which helps me get rid of Favorite Moon and Going Gone, so now I will look at the trainers past records in this race followed by their current form. Of the eight remaining, only three trainers have won this race (Willie Mullins, Hughie Morrison, and Alan King), and of those three, the RTF figure (Running To Form) reads 68%, 42%, and 31% (in that order), so its Willie Mullins for me – but we still have both Gibraltar and Baby Zeus to choose from. I am (eventually) going for the first named thanks so Saffie Osborne claiming 3lb off his back, though the truth is, what a nightmare race to even consider having a bet in!
Newmarket 4.50pm
Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight runnings of this Listed sprint for fillies and mares, and if that continues, we can put a line through eight of the 15 runners which is a decent start (though not guaranteed, of course). The interesting one for me is Roger Varian’s Manaafith, who won her last two starts in 2021 and her only race so far over a furlong further on the all-weather at Kempton. She travelled well throughout considering it was her first start in 10 months before quickening clear in a Class Two handicap, and although this is a step up in class, she appears ready for it. The drop in trip is a concern, but connections should know better than me, and a fast run six at this level may be just what the doctor ordered.
Newmarket 5.20pm
With Godolphin represented by four runners here it must be odds on they take away the spoils, but I think fellow Emiratis Shadwell Estate can take this with the fast-improving Alflaila. Owen Burrows trains the son of Dark Angel who has already won four timers including his last two starts at Pontefract in Listed class, followed by the Group Three Strensall Stakes at York where he won by over two lengths going away from his rivals late on. He seems to be progressing with his racing and won’t be far away here with a clear run under the excellent Jim Crowley.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Bay Of Plenty each way 2.05pm York
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