As always there is plenty to talk about in the wide world of horse racing, and I start today with the “no-hoper” - who won at Catterick on Tuesday afternoon at odds of 11/4 joint favourite, having been freely available at 16/1 overnight. His previous form figures were more scrabble than horse racing, PU, 16th, 22nd, PU, PU, 10th and PU – beaten 223 lengths, 146 lengths, and 100 lengths in the races he did complete. Wind surgery and a tongue tie are apparently the reasons behind his dramatic improvement, and he did win with more in hand than the official margin of a neck, but my issue is not with his success but with the lack of questions asked afterwards. A quick look on the BHA website will show you the Stewards didn’t even ask for an explanation, and what does that tell you and me about how us punters are treated? I don’t for a moment suggest anything untoward, and in fact it was an amazing training performance by trainer Ryan Potter to get him to complete, let alone come home in front, but if this sport wants to attract newcomers then detailed explanations should have been sought as a result like that (especially for those who do not follow the markets) do not paint the sport in the best light.
Next up, one of my friends headed off to Cheltenham last Saturday (lucky him), and after reporting in, I wonder why anyone bothers? Many of you may be tee-totallers, but I’m not and a £6.80 per pint must have been served by someone wearing a Dick Turpin mask – that is daylight robbery. I accept they have to make money BUT people have already paid an entry fee, then they have to buy a race card if they want to know who is running, colours etc – and there really is no need to rib them again. Add in exorbitantly priced food (I am told £7.50 for a pastie or a hot-dog) and you are hardly likely to encourage repeat custom, but it doesn’t end there. Despite covid protocol and signs asking for your vaccine pass, no checks were made, and on the train back from the course, there was (apparently) a chorus of abusive football chants that I could not repeat here. Racing has always had to try and tread a very thin line between “bums on seats” to keep the money ticking over, and keeping the genuine racing fan happy, but for me (and my friend), that has now gone too far with a race meeting basically a glorified stag or hen party for some if not most of the crowd, and although I support the majority of new initiatives (Sunday Series, for one example), the race courses need to make sure they do not alienate their bread and butter punters, and at the moment I am convinced they have that balance all wrong.
To end with, the Bryony Frost debate won’t be going away any time soon, so sadly it still requires a little further discussion. I have been surprised by the number of females in the sport (am I still allowed to say that?) who have come out in support of Robbie Dunne, not for what he did, or what he said, but feeling the punishment fails to fit the crime. Unsurprisingly, the Gordon Elliott incident is much quoted (a six month ban that saw the majority of the stable horses running under a different name), while Robbie is stripped of his livelihood for a year and a half, and many are asking, would the ban have been as long had he bullied a male jockey and if not, why not?
Bored of reading – feel free to listen here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2021/12/16/bryony-frost-and-the-price-of-a-hot-dog/
And on to the racing….
Friday
Ascot 2.20pm
Ascot put on the best card this afternoon and the 2.20pm may only have the five runners, but I suspect we will learn an awful lot ahead of Cheltenham with a field of this quality if not quantity. Every single runner won last time out, two arrive here unbeaten (so something has to give) and a third is yet to taste defeat over hurdles – a race to savour and watch without a doubt. Jonbon was mightily impressive on his debut over hurdles at Newbury and looks all set to go off at odds-one here, but that was a maiden hurdle and the time was close to 19 seconds slower than average and although he could be the class act everyone hopes, the Nicky Henderson yard are only managing a strike rate of 15% which hardly fills me with enough confidence to take such a short price. Knappers Hill remains unbeaten after three bumpers and two starts over hurdles and is another to consider, but Nigel Twiston-Davies is as shrewd as they come, and if he thinks I Like To Move It can give five pounds or more away to these rivals, I suspect he has a plan. Three wins from three starts over hurdles gives him a small experience edge, and last time out he made all to at Cheltenham to win the Grade Two Sharp Novices’ Hurdle, so this is a standard he has already been successful at (hence the added 5lb). He made all the running that day and may well do so again here, and at the forecast prices as long as he finishes in the first two, we ought to draw a profit.
Ascot 2.55pm
Hopefully you will have noticed by now that I have no issue in opposing a favourite when I can find good reason, but there are other races where it makes no sense, and the 2.55pm at Ascot this afternoon is one of those. Pic D’Orhy was travelling better than the rest of the field before taking a tumble four out at Newbury last time out, and although that is not a good thing to see on a novice chaser’s CV, in his case it may yet be a good thing. Some horses need to make an error before they learn to tread that bit more carefully, and I am rather hopeful that will be the case here. Trained by Paul Nicholls, he was rated as highly as 154 over hurdles so we know he has an engine, and if he puts in a clear round here the six-year-old ought to be able to make all and come home alone.
Saturday
Navan 2.20pm
A disappointing line-up when you consider the battalions of Irish novices who will be targeting Cheltenham in March, but something has to win it and I am going to take a chance on Frontal Assault, decent over hurdles and not disgraced on his debut over fences when third at Punchestown, beaten just over a length despite far too many mistakes. If he jumps as badly again I doubt he can win, but I am assuming he will have been extensively schooled since then, and if that is the case he could prove too good for the likes of Busselton and Cile De Niege.
Haydock 12.55pm
I am going back in! I tipped and backed Nina The Terrier last time out at Newbury when she fell at the last when she was going well enough to suggest she would have had a big say in the finish. This race doesn’t look any deeper at first glance, and although there may be more to come from the lightly raced sorts, on form alone she looks by far the likeliest winner here.
Lingfield 2.00pm
James Tate is certainly getting a decent tune out of Garden Paradise recently with a career best effort last time out in Listed class at Kempton when seeing off the odds-on Siskany by a comfortable three lengths after making all the running over a mile and a half. His previous win was over even further so the mile and a quarter may be the question mark here, but if he can get away smartly and build up a lead, we know he won’t be stopping close home. Luke Morris rides this track as well as anyone and can dictate matters from the front, and although I am wary of both United Front, and Regal Reality, there is every reason to expect a big run from the son of Night Of Thunder at these weights.
Ascot 1.15pm
We haven’t seen a winner aged over seven in the last decade and if that statistic stands up, we can put a line through four of the seven runners – if only life was that easy! Pencilfulloflead looks the one to be on for me, with two wins from four starts over fences (at Galway and Punchestown), followed by a close-up second to Colreevy at Limerick and a third to Eklat De Rire at Naas when the three miles plus on heavy ground proved too much for him. He has won first time out each season so far, proof that he goes well fresh, and with then likelihood of further improvement as he gains in experience, he should prove hard to beat here.
Ascot 2.25pm
For many this will be seen as the race of the day, and to be honest, I am inclined to agree with them, it should be a proper Christmas Cracker, albeit a week early. Paisley Park won this last year but hasn’t looked the same horse in his two starts this season with a third at Wetherby and then at Newbury, though he does try a tongue-tie for the first time today to aid his breathing, and 1t 10/1 as I write, he has to be considered as an each way option. Thyme Hill is the best here according to official ratings and raced too freely too early on his return at Auteuil when a distant fifth on heavy going and he may strip a lot fitter for his first start since winning at Aintree in April, while Champ is presumably here to get a race in to him before he returns to fences, but is a class act and could surprise a few of them here. Buzz could not have been any more impressive when hacking up here over shorter last month and if he gets the three miles, he looks the one on an upward curve. He did win the Cesarewich on the Flat over two and a quarter miles so it seems fair to suggest stamina is his forte, but the stouter breds will put that to the test here and it will be interesting to see if he gets home – or not.
Ascot 3.00pm
One of those races where I start with the statistics before drawing any conclusions, and with 21 renewals on my database of choice, there is plenty ot work with. There has only been one winner over the age of nine which interestingly rules out the current favourite as I draw up my shortlist, as well as three others, so on to the next filter. Zero winners bigger than 50/1 takes out Dinons, while only one winner has completed and came home outside the top six last time out – and voila, I am left with just the five remaining horses. Of those (Grand Sancy, Jerrysback, Storm Control, Annsam, and Checkitout) trainer Paul Nicholls is the only represented handler with a winner (two to be exact), but they came from 24 runners in total, and I will be with Jerrybackeach way. Trainer Philip Hobbs has had nine runners in this race over the years, and placed with five of them, so with close to zero confidence, he is my suggestion here.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Nina The Terrier 12.55pm Haydock
Pencilfulloflead 1.15pm Ascot
Frontal Assault Each Way 2.20pm Navan
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