Well that was a strange week if ever there was one with the bookmakers almost competing with each other to shoot themselves in the foot – nice work boys and girls! In whatever order, BetVictor had a punter win a huge sum of close to half a million pounds from a Lucky 31 (to £2 stakes) and promptly stopped accepting the bets. Whoever runs their PR department is either very young or has chosen to forget that over the last thirty years or so they have been a bookmaker cash cow with the odd mishap – we have all done them (mine are to 10p mind), but how many times have we come up with all four – exactly. Unsurprisingly they have reversed their decision but for me that was damage done with punters once again treated with complete disdain.
Next up Paddy Power decided to trade their own prices all the way up to the off instead of copying market prices but hands up who thinks that will see a better deal for us punters? I cannot imagine the conversation that went “punters will be far better off this way boss” followed by “OK let’s do it” can you, and although I genuinely suspect this is step one of the demise of starting price as we know it, the punters seems sure to be the ones to pay the price as usual.
On a happier note I went to the Breeders Cup media call at Newmarket on Wednesday where we had a chat with the lies of Sean Levey and Ed Crisford, as well as a certain Aidan O’Brien. It will come as no huge surprise when I tell you we learned very little from the Irish maestro other than the clear wellbeing of magical and although that is hardly an inspired suggestion, she will carry my money come race day next weekend.
Sean Levey was good company to be honest and he seemed to think he has a better chance than the odds imply on board the Richard Hannon trained Billesdon Brook though why they have to run against each other to ruin my day is beyond me. Sadly, that leaves me with just the one solid bet at this early stage as Simon Crisford’s A Ali looks all set to take them on in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Apparently, this has been his target for some time (always a good thing), and he seems sure to get the rattling fast going he seems to need to be seen at his best. Already a winner of three Group Two races this looks a step up in company but if he gets the conditions he needs he seems sure to put in a huge effort at odds around the 6/1 mark.
On to the racing this weekend and with Doncaster looking less and less likely as the rains fall I will focus my attentions on Cheltenham who put on a decent looking card reminding us all that the jumps season is pretty much upon us. The opener sees plenty of “old friends” back on the track but is not one I would like to try and call this early in the season, but I will start with a small (silly) bet on Effernock Fizz in the 2.35pm over the two miles. 40/1 or bigger makes precious little sense to me for a horse rated six pounds below the 7/4 favourite who has to give the suggestion eleven pounds. I fully understand when I miss things, but the handicappers ought to be far smarter than me and although possibly outclassed, the weights suggest he has a bigger chance than those insulting odds imply.
If my previous selection wins then I may become a very rich man as I intend to add in 12/1 chance Two Taffs in the Pertemps hurdle due off at 3.45pm. Lightly raced recently and the subject of a wind operation since finishing second here over fences, the Skelton yard are pretty shrewd and off a mark of 138 today there is a chance he is thrown in on his chasing form and assuming any improvement.
In the hope of at least one winner here (it seems fair to say the other two can be labelled hopeful), I give you Kinross in the Horris Hill at Newbury at 2.50pm. The heavy going is a worry, but he made such an impression when hacking up by eight lengths at Newmarket that the going becomes a risk worth taking, and he may well be the best horse Ralph Beckett has had in his stable for some time.
Horses To Follow:
Putting forward a winner may look like the easy way out (perhaps it is), but I was at Newmarket on Wednesday and I was very taken with the performance of King Leonidas when winning his maiden for John Gosden by a couple of lengths. The win at odds of 13/8f surprised nobody I suppose but he travelled so well throughout and could be called the winner a long way out despite racing from way off the pace. Only connections will be aware of how much improvement there is to come but it was his debut run and I think he will prove to be group class at the very least next season.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Effernock Fizz Each Way to small stakes 2.35pm Cheltenham Saturday
Two Taffs Each Way 3.45pm Cheltenham Saturday
Kinross 2.50pm Newbury Saturday
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