I can write this with a huge smile still but only because its midday Tuesday and I am yet to witness how well (or more likely badly) my options at Goodwood ran this afternoon. Before the inevitable doom and gloom sets in, I can approach this afternoon’s seven races with eager anticipation so without further ado (and while praying for the rain to stop as there is nothing that looks worse than a limp soggy panama), we have the Wednesday card to look through. *Stop Press – Nicklaus wasn’t given the best of rides in the opener on Tuesday in my view and if anyone cares to let me know why Tom Marquand steered him in behind a wall of horses which ended any hopes he may have had then I am all ears? * The 6/4 winner and the 18/1 forecast (in the wording) in the Vintage Stakes so all is pretty in the World again!
1.50pm – Another handicap to open proceedings and as I write just the twenty runners over the stamina sapping distance of two and a half miles plus with the possibility if a bit more cut in the ground if the rain expected materialises. Lil Rockerfeller won this last year with some ease but an added nineteen pounds from the handicapper will make his life that bit more difficult and it is hard to imagine the other jockeys will allow him quite so much rope at the head of affairs this time however hard he tries to go from the front. Plenty nearer the bottom of the weights will have their work cut out running from out of the handicap (carrying more weight than their official mark thanks to race conditions), leaving me with a race I really don’t have any strong feelings about. Zubayr will carry my pound each way for what it is worth after winning last time out over hurdles at Southwell in a pretty ho contest though no blame would be attached to anyone giving this race a swerve and having an extra Pimms in the Goodwood bar.
2.25pm – A second handicap on the day but this one is over a mile and a half and restricted to three-year-olds. The point there is that they are still effectively babies in horse terms, and we need to try to balance the abilities shown so far with the weights allocated yet allow for the chance of further improvement with maturity and experience. Plenty here fit the bill headed by Desert Icon and the intriguing Kosciuszko who steps up in trip and makes his handicap debut for John Gosden. A running on two length fifth at Newbury may not look too much to write home about but he is reported to be working well at home on the Newmarket gallops and seems sure to come on for his first start in ten months, though I wish Frankie Dettori wasn’t in the saddle as his popularity seems sure to adversely affect the price. Sir Ron Priestly is another who should go well and will be running on strongly off the expected fast early pace, but my suggestion has as good a chance as any on paper at least and I am yet to be persuaded to change my mind.
3.00pm - Speed from start to finish is the order of the day for the five-furlong Group Three Molecomb Stakes for two year olds, a race won last year by Rumble Inthejungle and without a double figure victory in the last six years suggesting market leaders have the best chance. This season we have a truly International field with Joseph O’Brien sending two over form Ireland, Matthieu Palussierre sending a pair over from France, and Wesley Ward’s well regarded Maven from the USA looking to maintain his unbeaten record. All have each way prospects as you would expect, especially the last named, but any further rain may well scupper his chances (and perhaps his participation), and a chance is taken on the Clive Cox trained Hand On My Heart (currently available at odds up to 11/1). Held in some regard at home he made all for a winning debut in a decent looking contest at Windsor, and with Ryan Moore on board he seems likely to either lead again or perhaps track and worry Maven all the way, with his extra stamina taken to win out as they flash over the line this afternoon.
3.35pm – Maybe I am getting older and more miserable over time but am I the only one who thinks this could be a pretty poor renewal of the Sussex Stakes. Admittedly I was lucky enough to witness the success of Frankel in both 2011 and 2012 and Kingman the year after that, but I am fairly confident in saying that nothing of that calibre is in the field this year. Too Darn Hot trades at a skinny price after an easy win over a furlong shorter at Deauville last month and deserves his place at the head of the betting for trainer John Gosden but he is nowhere near as bullet proof as his price implies after early season defeats at York, The Curragh, and Ascot. Circus Maximus is the obvious danger for trainer Aidan O’Brien and won’t go down without a fight judged on his St James’s palace Stakes victory at Royal Ascot and the finish really ought to be fought out by that pair with the rest looking to have a few pounds to find on this season’s form. If I have it right (for once), then I Can Fly will be used to try to draw the finishing speed out of the jolly by the O’Brien camp leaving Circus Maximus to pounce late under top jockey Ryan Moore, though I freely admit the reverse forecast is a tempting alternative to a straight win bet.
4.10pm – Another contest over the fast five furlongs here at Goodwood though this time we have a Class Two event restricted to juvenile fillies. P J McDonald is a far better jockey than the majority of the media give him credit for and Mighty Spirit looks to have a pretty solid each-way chance for trainer Richard Fahey and deserves a win after four places from her only five starts, but I am hoping she has to settle for a place again behind Mark Johnston’s Mrs Bouquet. The winner of three of her five starts, the daughter of Toronado looks very well bought at £10,000 and has already won more than twice that amount, including two in three days in mid-July. Typically for the stable she is as tough as they come but better still she can front run to avoid any trouble in behind, and she stays an added furlong suggesting if anything wants to take her on from the off, she won’t be downing tools late on in the race, regardless of the early fractions.
4.45pm – Fillies again here but this time over a mile and a quarter and a handicap as well. It is interesting to see Sir Michael Stoute allows Vivionn to take on his Chelmsford conqueror Naqaawa on only slightly better terms and it may well be that they expect him to do even better now she is back on the grass. Moment Of Hope looks interesting for David Simcock off bottom weight but stays further and could find things happen a bit too fast for her over this trip after winning over further at Wolverhampton last time, and I have the narrowest of preferences for her stable companion Lady Of Shalott, who has only been upped five pounds for a clever win at Newmarket on the July course at the end of June. She was eased home that day by Harry Bentley and has Jamie Spencer in the saddle this afternoon and if he gets the timing of his attack right this afternoon, she could well surprise them all today.
5.55pm – A seven furlong handicap rounds off the Wednesday card and I wouldn’t blame anyone if they retired to the bar rather than get involved in what looks an unfathomable contest. The forecast favourite is Lyndon B at a tissue price of 6/1 which only reinforces the difficulties we face as punters and if I do bet, it will be to the smallest of stakes. Light And Dark is the one who will be lumbered with carrying my cash each way here after a very promising win on his handicap debut last time out at Newmarket over this trip. I was delighted to see Godolphin stick with jockey Callum Shepherd who has been on board the Shamardal colt for his last two starts, though he does need to find plenty more after the handicapper over reacted with a draconian eleven pound rise in his handicap mark. Yes that will take some shrugging off, but he has only had the four career starts and I am hoping there may yet be even more to come as he gains more experience.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Zubayreach-way 1.50pm Goodwood Wednesday
Kosciuszkoeach-way2.25pm Goodwood Wednesday
Hand On My Heart each-way 3.00pm Goodwood Wednesday
Circus Maximus 3.35pm Goodwood Wednesday
Mrs Bouquet 4.10pm Goodwood Wednesday
Lady Of Shalott each way 4.45pm Goodwood Wednesday
Light And Dark each-way 5.15pm Goodwood Wednesday
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