One last day to go and although the racing has been top class, I cannot pretend it has felt the same without the crowds. The below par field numbers have got me thinking “why”, and it does make you wonder how many owners enter their horses just to get the badge for Festival Week, and now they can’t attend, what is the point? That is clearly just me stirring the pot, but when the best races for the best prize money only attracts 6 or 7 runners then questions surely need to be asked, and it will be interesting to see if betting turnover is down with so many races putting off the each way punter?
Thursday was as interesting as any other day at Cheltenham with Envoi Allen falling in the first when I swear I could hear the sigh of relief from bookmakers around the Country. Suddenly the race meant very little with the would be superstar out of the contest, though Chantry House won the race fair and square in the end, and I did mark him down as the main danger for what this is worth now. Unowhatimeanharry was up there for most of the race and wasn’t disgraced for a thirteen-year-old but faded late on as the Irish, seemingly insulted by the Brits “daring” to take the opener, struck again with 12/1 Mrs Milner this time for trainer Paul Nolan and although I admit I failed to give him a second glance, he did it well and deserves all the plaudits. How Allaho kept up what looked like a suicidal gallop to win the Ryanair under Rachel Blackmore is beyond me and I expected the closers to pick him off up the home straight, but not a bit of it as the 3/1f came home alone, though we did land out each way bet with Fakir D’Oudaires who finished second despite a bad mistake at a crucial stage.
In the Stayers Hurdle my fate was known far too early with Lisnagar Oscar taking a tumble at the seventh but what a run by winner Flooring Porter who made all and pretty much came home alone. Still a relative baby as a six-year-old, if they can keep hm sound he could well come back for a couple more years with solid chances, though I doubt they let him have that kind of soft lead any time soon. For a handicap that looked tough enough on paper, 9/4 for the The Shunter was a joke of a price but boy did he land the best (and the bonus) when taking the Plate, though I make more money with my each way on Top Notch (third at 50/1), and I will happily take that to the bank. I can’t pretend the Mares’ Novice was a race that particularly quickened the pulse before the flag fell, and it only got worse when my selection was never even sighted, but what can we say about the imperious Rachel Blackmore? I don’t do the politically correct debate (you can’t win on that one regardless), and it is of no relevance to me where she is female, male, or anything else for that matter – all I care about is that she is a genius in the saddle. If anything, she is being hard done by with all the “how fabulous for a woman” debate, the fact is she is a brilliant jockey whether she is riding from the front or weaving her way through the field, and she should be feted as such. Her win here on Telmesomethinggirl was made to look simple enough from the saddle but she is an artist without a doubt, and looks all set to be crowned leading jockey at the Festival by the end of this afternoon.
Why ITV can’t show all the races is beyond me, but the last was watched elsewhere as the Irish, with plenty of money in their pockets after dominating the meeting so far, lumped on the Jack Kennedy ridden Mount Ida who was sent off at odds of 3/1 before running the strangest of races. Suggesting he took a while to warm up to his jumping would be a polite way of putting it, and he was trading at 12/1 and bigger on the exchanges mid race when seemingly detached from the field before running them all down to win going away. One of the strangest races of the week so far, but a winner is a winner and I am more than happy with how things have gone – so far.
And so, for the last time for 2021…
Cheltenham
Friday.
Triumph Hurdle 1.20pm
Just the eight runners for a pathetically small Triumph field, though every one of them came home in the first two last time out, with half the field currently unbeaten over hurdles, so something has to give. Zanahiyr heads the market for Ireland, who are dominating so far as expected, and his form was boosted when Saint Sam came home second off a big weight in the Fred Winter earlier in the week. He looks tough to realistically oppose so in to the acca he goes, though don’t for one moment think there aren’t any serious dangers. Tritonic represents Alan King, last successful in this race in 2007 with Katchit, and he seems sure to go well, though I have not been as impressed with his jumping as some, and he will need to do better to get competitive when the taps are turned on and sadly I would not fall over in shock to see his hurdling fall apart late on. Adagio has done very little wrong and is seen as David Pipe’s best chance of the meeting, while I feel Quixilios ought to be the favourite on what we have seen so far and the 4/1 was a tempting proposition, but 12/1 for a Willie Mullins horse is just that bit too tempting and I will be on Haut En Couleurs each way. Once raced in France for trainer Gabriel Leenders when winning by a head at Auteuil, he was bought privately and moved to Ireland and makes his stable debut this afternoon, but has been the subject plenty of very positive rumours over the last few months. Now we all know the racing saying of keeping your eyes open and your ears closed if you want to find more winners but when there is a buzz about a horse that trades at 12/1, I am as big a mug as anyone else, though my stakes will be reduced accordingly.
County Hurdle 1.55pm
The horse I really fancied (as did his trainer) fails to make the final line-up which is a bit of a dampener on my fireworks, but then again, this is a race I hardly expected to solve without a little help. Last season saw the first winning favourite in a decade with others successful at up to 33/1, so time to look at the stats and see if they throw up any useful patterns. The first thing I noticed was the fine record of runners last seen in the Betfair Hurdle in this contest and that leads me to Gary Moore’s Fifty Ball who was second there. Only upped four pounds for that 11/1 looks too big to me and he should run well, but in the end I have come down on the side of Gowel Road who is only a novice, but strongly fancied by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard. Freely available at odds of 12/1 I have to temper my enthusiasm with the knowledge that Nigel is rarely if ever know to talk down any of his horses, but he feels this is his best chance of the week in which case that could well be each way value. The winner of his last two starts at Newbury he has a bit of character about him but they have sensibly added cheekpieces to try and keep him on the straight and narrow, and a mark of 137 looks more than fair. A lack of experience is a concern after just four career starts but his second to Bear Ghylls on debut stands out on the form book and if he gets a fast run race to attack from as expected he won’t be too far away at the finish – Sam Twiston-Davies rides.
Albert Bartlett Hurdle 2.30pm
Three miles for novices next and on paper, this looks likely to be a really tightly fought contest. The first three in the early betting are all trained in Ireland which is no great shock as they have been dominating all week, but I think we can keep the trophy at home for a change with as strong a line up as we can possibly muster. Barbados Buck’s is the shortest priced of the home based challengers for Paul Nicholls and he has done nothing wrong recently with wins at Southwell (twice) and Kempton, but this does, to me at least, look a much bigger ask. He is (unsurprisingly) related to the amazing Big Bucks’ who won the Stayers Hurdle on numerous occasions but he hasn’t looked at that level yet and at 6./1 he looks a little short. With Adrimel a doubtful stayer in a truly run race to these tired old eyes, I am pretty much forced toward Alaphilippe who has heart and ability as witnessed by four wins from five starts this season, the latest at Haydock when winning easily over this sort of trip. This is that step tougher but he seems to keep on improving, and at 8/1 or thereabouts he looks to have every chance, though I am also intrigued by the supposed Willie Mullins second string in N’Golo who takes a huge step up in trip in as first time hood and could go well at a far bigger price IF he gets the trip, which is obviously the great unknown in the equation.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 3.05pm
There was a tie when this was seen as the one big race of the entire week but it seems to have lost a bit of its lustre over the years with the novices getting more attention than those who have been there and written the book. Somehow, Al Boum Photo has failed to attract the public adoration you might expect of a dual Gold Cup winner, but he heads the market again in 2021 for Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend and deservedly so with this race his seasonal target. His route to Cheltenham this time is exactly the same as last with a win at Tramore before heading to Prestbury Park, and assuming he comes on for a very easy win in January, he ought to take all the beating again this year and could well join the very select band of triple winners. Unsurprisingly, for a race worth over a quarter of a million to the winner, he has a strong field to beat and I could go through them all explaining why they have a chance of some sort. Champ has had an unusual preparation after finishing second over two miles on his one start this season at Newbury, but I just get the feeling this has all been a bit rushed and that he has had anything but an ideal run up to the race. Royal Pagaille literally jumped in to the Gold Cup picture with a runaway win in the Peter March Chase at Haydock but that was on very different ground to that expected here, and although he did well giving lumps of weight around, he didn’t really beat very much and for that reason I will pass him over. Native River would be a popular winner for Colin Tizzard but may be better on a softer surface and has it all to do to reverse 2020 form with Al Boum Photo on this ground, while second favourite A Plus Tard only just caught Kemboy at Leopardstown and at a third of that rival’s price cannot be suggested as any value. All in all, it is a complicated enigma of a race but one the bookmakers look to have about right, and as I cannot find a good reason to oppose Al Boum Photo – I won’t.
St James’ Place Hunter Chase 3.40pm
Not everyone’s cup of tea but then not the race it normally is with amateur jockeys stood down during covid, and horses trained in the bigger yards unlike the old days when Famer Brown used to be in charge of the favourite, but some call that progress. As we have all seen by now, the Irish are dominating proceedings but I am not sure how that explains the favouritism of the 141 rated Billaway ahead of the 146 rated Bob And Co – oh yes, the Willie Mullins factor. As I am a glutton for punishment I am going to have not one but TWO bets in this race (small as they will be) with a win bet on Bob And Co (class act and with Paul Nicholls) and an each way on point to point winner Mr Mantilla who could be anything – or a carthorse. The fact is, the seven-year-old has won five of his six starts in Ireland, the latest at Stradbally in an open event for handler Vincent Devereux, but today is his first start under rules – and his first run for D J Jeffreys who’s stable is just down the road from the track at Stow-on-the-Wold. Of course backing him is a shot in the dark but his ability is there for all to see and more importantly, he isn’t being massively overfaced just yet either and at 25/1 or bigger I can’t resist a tickle at that price.
Liberthine Mares’ Chase 4.15pm
I am loving the look of this race even if I am struggling to find the winner with so many class mares going to war over the two and a half miles. Once again (yawn), Willie Mullins dominates the market with the Mark Walsh ridden Elimay shading favouritism from Colreevy in what should be one heck of a contest between the two. At this trip I have the narrowest of preferences for the last named I suppose, and will add her to Zanahiyr for the acca, but the 12/1 about Magic Of Light is just too tempting. She won’t be getting any better at the age of ten, but she is the highest rated in this field, ran a great race over hurdles as a pipe opener when second to Roksana at Ascot, and as I suspect they will go off too fast, her ability to win over further will be an asset when the others start to wander up the Cheltenham hill, and if Jessica Harrington has her spot on as expected, she won’t be far away with a clean round of jumping.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle 4.50pm
The finale of the entire week, and a chance to breathe again for those who have been flat out at the coalface for what feels like quite some time now, but clearly isn’t. Ending with a Conditional jockey’s handicap seems like their way of making sure they empty our pockets once and for all, and I have been forced to turn to the dreaded stats in the hunt for the winner. In brief I have deleted any horse priced bigger than 40/1 (no winners in the twelve runnings), as well as any horse aged older than seven (ditto). No winners that raced in the last 15 days (bye bye to the well fancied Langer Dan), and none who hadn’t raced in the last 90 days, and all of a sudden the 24 runner field is down to a slightly more manageable ten. My next filter was their last run and I note that every winner has either completed in the first five home or unseated, and that gets rid of another three. Finally, zero past winners have carried less than eleven stone one to success, and that means, if stats are repeated, the winner will be one of Eglantine Du Seuil (28/1), Gentleman De Mee (9/2), Fire Attack (10/1), First Lord De Cuet (25/1), and Frontal Assault (16/1), and when I have finished playing with forecasts and tricasts to pennies, I will also have a bet on Gentleman De Mee who is the dark horse here, though Bryan Carver may also go close on Eglantine Du Seuil at a huge price.
Sean’s Suggestions (all Cheltenham)
Double
Zanahiyr 1.20pm, Al Boum Photo 3.05pm.
Win bet – Al Boum Photo 3.05pm
Each Way – Gowel Road 1.55pm
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