Cheltenham Friday
1.30pm
Two weeks ago this looked all over bar the shouting, but there has been a worrying lack of confidence behind Nicky Henderson’s Sir Gino in recent days and as I write we can all back him at 9/4 – IF he even runs with the Henderson horses running way below par and numerous withdrawals by the yard already. Even at his new bigger price I cannot suggest we take that chance, and common sense suggest we should look elsewhere for the winner. The softer going remains a concern for many of these and bets should be reduced accordingly but there are whispers coming out of Ireland that Salvator Mundi (each way) could be the surprise package here. Once raced in France on heavy ground when second to Sir Gino after being pounced on close home, he is now with Willie Mullins and although unraced in 11 months or so, if he wasn’t fit enough then surely they would not send him here? 10/1 looks a reasonable price as I write, and with sever question marks hanging over the favourite, he will be my alternative as an each way play.
2.10pm
The County Hurdle is looking as fiendish as ever, with the likelihood of a full field seeing plenty of hard luck stories by the time they pass the post. The last 10 runnings have seen winners at odds of 11/1, 25/1, 8/1, 20/1, 33/1, 12/1, 11/2f, 33/1, 11/4f, and 33/1 so whatever your fancy, don’t let the prices put you off! In the last nine runnings the score is Willie Mullins 4-4 Dan Skelton (with Peter Fahey responsible for the other one, which are pretty amazing statistics for a race this competitive. All the “facts” tell us is we haven’t seen a winner older than eight in the last 15 years, or a seven-year-old funnily enough. No one else has won it more than once in the 15 years covered so we do need to at least consider all the Elliott ad Skelton horses even if there are seven of them. King of Kingsfield heads the market for the Elliott team after his third to Ballyburn at Leopardstown, form which gives him every chance off this mark, but I am going out on a limb and suggesting top-weight Pied Piper (each way). The six-year-old likes it here at Cheltenham with his form at the track reading 1,3,1,2, including a third to Vauban in the Triumph Hurdle in 2022 and a head second to Faivoir in this race last year, suggesting he saves his best for the Festival, and if I am correct and he has been saved to arrive here fresh, he could shock them all.
2.50pm
I do suspect the current wide-open market for the Albert Bartlett is more about unknown running plans, and once the final declarations are known we will see a much shorter priced favourites – bookmakers like to do that sort of thing! Paul Nicholls broke the recent Irish stranglehold when Stay Away Fay took this last year at odds of 18/1, but with just the one single figure priced winner in the last 10 renewal, that wasn’t too much of a surprise to many. 10 of the 15 declared arrive from Ireland which tells you more about the quality of our horses than anything else, but it is heavily odds-on they take the prize, though with none of these a winner last time out it’s a difficult one to second guess. Home trained runners Captain Teague and Gidleigh Park are decent animals in the own right and could have some say, but its another Mullins horse for me with High Class Hero (each way) a spot of value at 7/1. I assume Paul Townend has chosen market leader Readin Tommy Wrong which is a hint in itself, but if this turns into a stamina test you have to worry about any horse yet to race over further than two and a half miles under rules with an added four furlongs here. At least my suggestion has won over two and three quarter miles with an unbeaten run of four over hurdles, and if he brushes up his hurdling, he could well hit the frame.
3.30pm
One last Championship event for this week and it’s the big one – the Cheltenham Gold Cup, three milks two and a half furlongs over fences for the best chasers, and with £625,00 or more in total prize money, with £351,688 to the winner – nice work if you can get it. Galopin Des Champs took this last year for Willie Mullins by seven lengths from Bravemansgame and he is back for more, looking for a hat-trick after a pair of Grade One victories at Leopardstown. Priced at around the 5/4 mark to double up, he is clearly the one they all have to beat, and at the age of eight, there is every chance we have not seen the best of him just yet. He will be carrying the weight of the Irish money this afternoon, though if the ground remains on the soft side (or worse), then I will be backing Nassalam (each way) at a massive price after Gary Moore’s gelding strolled home to win the Welsh Grand National last time out, giving him every right to be in the line-up for this even more prestigious event.
4.10pm
The Hunter Chasers get their chance for five minutes of fame in the St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup, with an interesting mix of those from the point-to-point field full stop – and those who headed there towards the end of a career under rules. Premier Magic won this last year at a huge price (66/1) and hasn’t been beaten in three starts since, the last two in point-to-points, but he won’t be that sort of price now, and we may be better off looking elsewhere. Billaway has the form to go close, but no 12 year-old has won this in recent years which is a concern, and the may be more to come from Its On The Line who has improvement to come at the tender age of seven. Bought by legendary owner J P McManus after winning by a head after idling in front at Naas last month. I won’t be having a large bet with 5/2 a skinny price, but as I cannot find a suitable alternative, he will do for me in placepot and multiple bets if nothing else.
4.50pm
Just the two races to go for another year, and a Mares Chase next up on the list, with two and a half miles for the fairer sex to travel. Just the three runnings of this race so far and with every one of them going to Ireland, we have a decent starting point in our hunt for the victor. Despite odds of 9/4 (twice) and 15/8 we haven’t actually witnessed a winning favourite yet, though it is crystal clear we need to be searching near to the head of the market. The jolly was second in 2023, fifth in 2022, and second in 2021, so in the never-ending search for value, I will be backing second favourite Allegorie De Vassy (each way), mainly for stamina reasons. Favourite Dinoblue is a class act but she has raced 13 times in total, all over two miles or so except the once when she was beaten over 10 lengths over this trip over hurdles, and if the ground remains on the sticky side, there is a concern she won’t get home. The suggestion ,on the other hand, has hit a top three spot in all eight races over fences, with the majority over this distance or further, and at 9/2 I’ll find a bookie offering a quarter the odds knowing a place will make us the smallest of profits, and a win a decent one.
5.30pm
And so we come to the end of another Cheltenham Festival, full of highs and lows throughout, and this time a chance for the Conditional jockeys to shine in the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle over two and a half miles. Once again I will start with the statistics from the last 15 years, and I note that every winner who completed on their last start had come home in the first six. All were aged five to seven, all were priced 40/1 or lower at the off, all were rated 134 or more, all had raced in the last 90 days, and none had raced in the last 15 days. All came from the first 12 in the betting (for what that’s worth), and if we apply those as rules, then we have a shortlist of only four – Quai De Bourbon, Better Days Ahead, Yeats Star, and What’s up Darling, with all of them trained in Ireland Naturally, I will be playing them all in forecasts and tricasts (to pennies) just in case those stats hold up, but the coin has been tossed and it has come down on the side of What’s Up Darling (each way) at odds around the 18/1 mark. He makes his handicap debut this afternoon off a mark of 137 which may underestimate his true abilities having won a Grade Three at Navan last November, and run respectably enough when fifth in the Grade One Royal Bond at Fairyhouse and second in the Grade Three Red Mills Trial at Gowran Park last month. There is reason to believe that he is better than your average handicapper, and with his pedigree suggesting the step up in trip will be ideal, he looks overpriced to me.
Comments