Cheltenham Tuesday (all each way)
1.30pm
The roar of the crowd is something to hear when the tapes go up for the first race of the four days, but finding the winner won’t be quite as easy to predict. As I have already suggested Tellherthename in a podcast I did I cannot desert him now, with Ben Pauling describing him as his best ever novice. He has plenty of speed to call upon as needed and although likely to try to make all, he can be produced from off the pace if something else goes off at a suicidal gallop. An easy winner at Huntingdon last time out, he arrives at the top of his game, and although the Irish will be difficult if not impossible to beat, he looks to have an each way chance.
2.10pm
The Arkle Trophy puts the best first season chasers up against each other on their road to fame and fortune, and with winners such as Altior, Shishkin, Edwardstone, and El Fabiolo in recent years, the standard is very very high. At the moment the Irish dominate the betting with Gaelic Warrior heading the early betting, though interestingly his two wins over fences have been over further, while his last success over hurdles saw a win at three miles – so will he have the pace needed for the two miles here? That looks a big question mark to me, big enough to take him on with Quilixios, the winner of the Triumph Hurdle here in 2021 and with a two out of three record since switching to fences including an eye-catching display of jumping last time out at Naas. I can’t say this looks the best Arkle on paper by a long stretch, and if there is a chaser with a touch of class about him in this line-up, he may well be it.
2.50pm
Our first handicap of the week and one that has seen winners at prices up to 28/1 in the last decade, though interestingly seven have succeeded at 10/1 or less. This is not a contest I have too much interest in to be honest, so I have reverted to the historical stats to try and find the winner, so wish me luck. In the last 15 years, it is noted that 14 have been priced at 40/1 or less, and horse who completed last time came home in the first six, all were aged six to 11, none had run in the last 15 days and none were rated higher than 151. Sadly that only gives us a shortlist of 15 (losing eight) so our next stop has to be their handicap marks, though be warned, such methodology cannot make allowances for improvers! To my shock, only TWO of my remaining horses have ever won off their current marks or higher, and both are priced as if they have no chance. Eklat De Rire is a very lightly raced 10-year-old with just the 11 career starts, eight of those over fences, and with three wins at Punchestown, Naas, and Wexford, the latest in 2021 off a mark of 152. Lightly raced since, he showed signs of a return to form when second at Fairyhouse last month, and racing off a mark of 146 this afternoon he looks overpriced at 33/.1 and will be carrying a little of my cash each way – just in case. For anyone interested, Lord Du Mesnil is even better off at the weights having won off 149 (rated 140 here), but he has less excuses for recent efforts than the suggestion.
3.30pm
Words cannot express my disappointment at the absence of Constitution Hill, but that apparently opens the way for State Man to make his mark for the Willie Mullins stable. The fact that they didn’t ever look for an alternative engagement for last season’s nine-length second shows us all how highly they regard the seven-year-old who has won all bar two of his starts over hurdles since arriving from France (and one of those was a fall two out at Leopardstown when in contention), but at odds-on it may be worth taking a risk on Gordon Elliott’s Irish Point. Don’t forget his handler also trains Zanahiyr who was four lengths behind today’s jolly last year, yet word from the stable has it that Irish Point is seen as different gravy and at 9/2, if we can find a bookie paying a quarter the odds (shop around) we at least get our money back if he hits the places
4.10pm
From odds-on to odds-on next when Lossiemouth looks all set to add to the Mullins tally at this year’s Festival. Plenty had been suggesting she should take on State Man in the Champion Hurdle but this looks easier pickings up against her own sex hence her skinny price. She is the one they all have to beat, but she has her first race beyond two miles and a furlong here, and surely her opponents will look to at least test her stamina? Add in bigger prices for more reward just to hit a top three spot and I will take a risk to small stakes on dark horse Lantry Lady instead. One of a small but select team for Henry De Bromhead, she is very much an unknown quantity after two wins from two starts at Gowran Park over the minimum trip. Her mother was an unraced half-sister to Annie Power so the added half mile ought to bring about plenty of improvement, and at 20/1 I can see her getting involved in the finish, and possibly even coming home in front.
4.50pm
5/1 the field as I write tells us all we need to know about how competitive this is, but then what did we expect for a Juvenile hurdlers handicap? Three winners at 33/1 and one at 80/1 and just the one winning favourite in the last 10 years screams punters beware, but decisions have to be made, and I have eventually come down on the side of Liari for that man Paul Nicholls. He seems to be aiming a more select team at Cheltenham this year and the Cracksman gelding arrives here unbeaten over hurdles after wins at Wincanton, Aintree and Musselburgh. 10/1 looks acceptable for an each way play today, though I am wary of the unexposed Batman Girac who will appreciate a fast run race so he can be produced late on, though quite frankly anything seems possible!
5.30pm
If any UK based trainer is set for a good Festival then Ben Pauling may be the one, and he has a solid chance here with the four-timer seeking Henry’s Friend who will be my each way suggestion. He stayed on again to get back up at Ascot over three miles last time out to suggest the added three quarters of a mile here may play to his strengths, though he won’t have it all his own way with some serious opposition including Embassy Gardens who may be the one to beat for (you guessed it) the Willie Mullins team.
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