Back to something that remotely resembles normality this week after the farce of “Glorious” Goodwood where the rains just kept on falling, the formbook was turned on its head, and the last day was abandoned straight after the Stewards Cup – something I cannot remember happening in my long career in the sport. As I am no fan of the Shergar Cup (I understand trying to get new fans to the sport but for me “teams” just doesn’t ever work) I have allowed by compatriot Ron Robinson to pick the races we will cover (which worries me) but before then, we have a few things that need further discussion.
The going is a bit of a stuck record with most of us to be honest, but my main concern is the apathy shown to all us punters who do, at least partly, fund the sport via the levey and racecourse attendances. Time and time again we get told one thing, be that by the clerk of the course or the racing media – only to watch the racing, note the times – and realises that the official going report is little more than a work of fiction that J K Rowling would be proud of. Goodwood last week was a prime example with everyone realising it was way softer than we had been told, but what help is that to the majority of punters who have placed their bets way before the races started? I genuinely appreciate it that as things stand it isn’t that easy to give an accurate report (race courses cover a big area), but I also feel that we are being treated with utter contempt – trainers and owners get to watch the first race or two before drawing their conclusions and have the ability to walk the track themselves if they want to – the rest of us do not have that luxury and quite frankly, that just isn’t good enough.
Talking of Goodwood, and what exactly can we take out of the meeting for future reference – assuming we finally get some decent ground again? Very few impressed me to be honest, though that may in part be down to me sulking after working out how I felt a race would be run, then watching a long list of non-runners change the whole complexion. The Tom Marquand ride on Quickthorn was sublime, but makes the form of the Goodwood Cup irrelevant as they surely won’t ever let him have that kind of lead again (famous last words), while Big Ebs was a good winner for the likeable Mick Appleby – though he did have to suffer an interview with Matt Chapman for his sins. What do we all make of Paddington? Clearly he is a very decent colt, no doubt about that, but he won a sub-standard Sussex Stakes on atrocious ground by a length and a half in a time 10 seconds slower than average – and suddenly everyone thinks he is an Arc horse? Firstly he has never raced beyond a mile and a quarter (on good ground), and his stamina will be tested over a mile and a half on soft ground in Paris – though to be fair he is bred to be better over further but if that is the case, why wasn’t he sent to a Derby? Seriously, I intend to pretty much bin all the Goodwood form unless it stays on the soft side, regroup and start again – and I suggest you all do the same.
Lastly, since we last “spoke”, the Gambling Commission have reached out with another piece of consultation – but seeing as it looks like they didn’t listen to the last one, who knows what joys this will bring? In my view they have already overstepped the mark with the white paper saying winnings are not to be included in calculations when it comes to affordability checks, a paragraph being conveniently ignored. That was always going to be a sticking point (when does money in my account become “mine”), but six monthly checks and potential issues if you decide to leave your winnings in your account seems a step too far. I know plenty of punters who follow systems of some kind (I should know, I have written a few), and they work on a long term profit, with emphasis on the long term. Of course there will be losing runs as well as winnings ones, but the objective is to make a profit at the end of the day – so what happens if I am backing 33/1 shots in handicaps over five furlongs (for want of an argument), and have £100 a time on 21 consecutive losers, breaching the £2000 threshold? Sod’s Law they will step in, and put a hold on my account – just before the next one wins that would have given me the profit I expected. Basically, I detect a complete misunderstanding of the punters mentality, a point made clear by Philip Davies MP who was quoted on Monday describing the Gambling Commission as “They must be the most out of touch regulator there is in the country, and that’s a strong field” – not mincing his words, but not inaccurate either.
On to the more important stuff (and don’t forget the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/08/11/gambling-commission-whats-the-answer-winners-25-1-16-1-9-1-last-time/?fbclid=IwAR2hdGMJC20s-sBgqrCFshbR_i4uHdksQtkPvUgpdqetkmAQRKxA0P03DT4
if you prefer a listen)
Saturday Racing
2.25pm Haydock
A one-mile Class Three handicap kicks off our action this afternoon in a race where we have not seen a winner at a double figure price in the last 10 runnings, though we did have 10 different trainers and 10 different jockeys, so not a lot of help there! Five winners were four-year-olds and four were three-year-olds gives us a starting point, and I can see the race being set up nicely for Isle Of Jura. He has won his last two starts, one each at Newbury and Newmarket with the second so impressive that the handicapper had a fit – and he has to run off a mark of 97 this afternoon. That said, both Poet Master and Kathab like to front-run and if I have read the race correctly, they will set things up nicely for a closer and none look in better form that the suggestion.
3.05pm Newmarket
A mile and a half on a surface with plenty of give in it may prove a step too far for some of these, but that remark simply does not apply to Charlie Johnston’s Edge of Darkness. Like most of the stable’s horses he never lacks for effort or fitness, winning his last two at Thirsk with the latest over this trip on a soft surface – so no worries about the ground then. He has been out up 4lb for the latest success but looked as if he idled a bit close home and I feel he could have won by further, and he may land his hat-trick under Jack Mitchell. Sadly there is no such thing as a cert in a handicap, and I am wary of both the improving maiden Tajanis and top-weight Sea Grey in a first-time visor, but decisions have to be made, and I am happy enough with my selection.
3.13pm Redcar
A six-furlong sprint always requires a bit of luck in running, but as four-year-olds have won eight of the last nine runnings, that leaves me with a pretty small list to work with. Vaccine showed improved form to win narrowly last time out, but as the trainer’s explanation for that was how much he loves Pontefract I am willing to give him a swerve, while Bobby’s Blessing was beaten over eight lengths in a better race at Hamilton (admittedly after being eased once his chance had gone), and arrives with something to prove. That leaves us with top-weight Shaladar, beaten a nose off 1lb lower in a Class Four at Leicester when beaten on the nod. This will be the biggest weight he has ever tried to carry, but he has won carrying nine stone eight and placed off nine stone nine, so there is still hope for those of us backing the Kevin Ryan gelding.
4.15pm Newmarket
Famous last words but I do like seven-furlong contests, just a touch too far for the sprinters, and a bit too speedy for the milers, sometimes creating a specialist group who excel at this trip, and this trip alone. Once again the last 10 runnings have seen 10 different trainers winning first prize, and (you guessed it) 10 different jockeys as well, but if Parlando is ready to go after over a year off, we could see a big run at a huge price. A son of Dubawi out of a Street Cry mare, he won over this trip on his debut at Leicester for Charlie Appleby before finishing second over the mile at Kempton when going down by a neck. Sold on for £105,000 at the sales last March and now in the care of Ian Williams, he has been gelded since and may have more to offer. Admittedly, a mark of 85 seems high enough on what he has achieved so far, but his new connections are pretty shrewd, and I will be watching the early markets with interest for any signs of confidence.
5.20pm Haydock
Seven furlongs again here for this lowly Class Five handicap, and with five distance winners we should be in for a competitive renewal. Destined hasn’t won over the trip yet, but he nearly got up late on over a furlong shorter at Thirsk and is worthy of more than a passing glance, but in a race I really don’t like for some reason, Glory Sky looks the one to be on. Sean Levey heads here for four rides, three for Richard Hannon, and the son of Cotai Glory looks his best chance of walking away with a winner. He has got better with every start, fourth at Bath, second at Beverley, and getting off the mark last time out at Kempton over this trip by a couple of lengths, he gets in here off a mark of 72 for his handicap debut and as I am pretty hopeful there is improvement to come, he looks as good a pick as any in a tricky race.
5.50pm Haydock
And seven furlongs again (who does the race planning or isn’t there any), and another Class Five, though this time it is for older horses so in theory we have more form to work with. Ugo Gregory has won three times over the trip and although he does look exposed at the age of seven, he has won off higher marks, and won’t mind any give in the ground. Ignore his last run when the going was like a bog, and he did win the race before at Beverley which gives me some hope! Lockdown Lass looks a complete nutcase but has still won three times, and if she ever puts all her nervous energy into the race then she can win again, though hopefully not today.
8.07pm Ayr
Someone is taking the mick with yet another race over seven furlongs (which bright spark thought of that, all on the same day with a limited pool of horses best suited by the distance), but we deal with whatever is put in front of us. First Greyed was more impressive than the official winning margin of a neck last time out at Beverley after being caught short of room before being threaded through to get up under Connor Beasley. Shane Gray takes over in the saddle this afternoon and he races off 3lb higher, but that may not be enough to stop him following up if he is in the same form tonight.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Isle Of Jura 2.25pm Haydock
Giudecca 5.45pm Lingfield
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