No BS Just Horses - Happy New Year One And All

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

No time for waffle this week so I have gone in “early” by may standards, covering both Friday and Saturday – and cutting out the waffle as I continue to attempt to digest a large Christmas Dinner! All I can add is I hope you all had the best Christmas ever, aren’t nursing massive hangovers – and are looking forward to more chat and a lot more winners from yours truly in 2025 – enjoy!

Friday

The Coral Welsh National can be a horror for punters with winners at prices of up to 16/1 in the last decade, but I do like a challenge and I have gone back to the database to see if past results can give us any clues to the likely winner this year. In the last 15 years (14 runnings), I was surprised to read that 20/1 is the longest priced winner while every single winner in that time had completed last time out – and finished in the first six. All bar one victor was rated between 127 and 151, and all had last raced between 16 and 60 days ago. Add those into the mix and the original field of 16 soon shrinks to a more handleable three – Fontaine Collonges, Monbeg Genius, and Iron Bridge. Of that trio, only Iron Bridge has won off his current mark or higher (though to be fair that was a two horse race), and with Jonjo O’Neill junior riding, and a sold staying on third at Cartmel over three and a quarter miles on his return to action in November, he could go mighty close over this extended trip at an excellent each way price.  

The opener at Kempton is a juvenile hurdle where we have seven declared, headed by Newcastle winner Inappropriate, who comfortably beat the highly regarded Lavender Hill Mob on his hurdling debut, and is not one to easily over look. He has to give weight to the Paul Nicholls trained Nardaran, and I am hoping that will see the son of Waldgeist home in front. Bought for 135,000 Euros at the Arqana Sales after finishing third in a Saint Cloud maiden, he has been schooling well at home at Ditcheat and has a touch of class about him by all accounts, and if he is as good as they hope, then a winning debut is on the cards.    

In Ireland at Leopardstown all eyes will be on the return of Gaelic Warrior, who is reported to be jumping out of his skin at home for trainer Willie Mullins ahead of his seasonal return in the Grade One chase at 1.10pm. he is officially the best horse in the race, albeit by only by 2lb (from the 164 rated Captain Guinness who looks overpriced for those who fancy and each way bet), and if he is fit enough to do himself justice, he will need to win this to keep the lofty ambitions of the Champion Chase in March on the long-term agenda.

Saturday

Newbury put on one of the better cards in the UK this Saturday afternoon but sensible bets are hard to find with (hopefully) the one exception – The New Lion who has oozed class when winning his first three races, one bumper and two over hurdles, the latest over course and distance in late November when he scored by three lengths when eased home without really knowing he had been in a race. He has perhaps his toughest task yet with five of his six rivals a winner last time out and two of them also unbeaten, though he will need to pass this with flying colours if he is to continue to harbour serious Cheltenham aspirations.

Ireland for our other two bets this Saturday starting with that man Willie Mullins when he unleashes Kalix Delabarriere over hurdles in the 12.20pm for starters. His one run so far saw him quicken up nicely to take a Ballinrobe bumper in May, but he steps up to a more suitable trip of two and a half miles over hurdles this afternoon which should see him in an even better light. His trainer described him as “top drawer” in a pre-season stable tour which may tell us all we need to know, and if he wins here we can all expect ludicrously short quotes for the Cheltenham novice hurdles.  

The Savills Chase at 2.35pm is the big race of the day and to be fair to the Mullins team, he runs five of the nine here, making tactics close to impossible to fathom. Fact Or File was close to three lengths in front of Gold Cup winer Galopin Des Champs when they came home first and third at Punchestown in November at level weights, though that was over two and a half miles, and the three miles today should suit the second named better. That leaves us with a fascinating clash this afternoon which will undoubtedly see the winner as the favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, but who will come out on top. Official ratings tell us it will be Galopin Des Champs who is officially rated a stone better than his improving rival, and although he has won the last two Gold Cups, he is still only an eight-year-old and may have some improvement to come.  

Sean’s Suggestion

Kalix Delabarriere 12.20pm Leopardstown Saturday