Dear oh dear – I honestly try so hard to look for good news stories for you all, and the chance to put a smile on a few faces, but racing seems to excel at one thing more than any other – getting things wrong!
Last Saturday night saw the Dubai World Cup meeting and to everyone’s amazement, Godolphin walked away empty handed. Back in the day a Mr Frankie Dettori rode plenty of winners in the famous blue colours but this Saturday he got the Bob Baffert trained Country Grammer to the front where it mattered in the Dubai World Cup, winning over £5 million for connections and a tidy sum (perhaps 10%) for himself as well. I have no issue with that at all – but after the race Frankie was fined 50,000 Dirhams (£10,365 ish) for excessive use of the whip having used it an unlucky 13 times (though interestingly Pat Dobbs was only fined 2000 Dirhams (£144.50 ish) for using his whip exactly the same number of times on board Brraq in the Kahulya Classic for pure bred Arabians on the same card – go figure?
My point here is that when the balance of payments in my bank account is minus £10,000 in one column and plus £500,000 in the other, who isn’t going to break the rules? I have said it before and I will say it again – how can it be right for any jockey (I am not picking on Frankie here) to break the rules yet still keep the race – imagine how you would feel as an owner (or punter) if your horse was beaten a short head or a nose by a jockey breaking the rules while your jockey kept within the limits – why should they keep the race, and you go home with nothing, when it has already been officially acknowledged (by the fine or a ban) that the rules have been broken – madness in my eyes, but I do know not everyone agrees with me.
On to the racing….
Friday
3.30pm Ayr
There are people out there who love a good handicap and I can see that – if you have the time to focus on one or two races a day and tear them apart horse by horse looking for every intricacy – but those of us having to cover every meeting just do not have that luxury – and we rely on stats, though on this occasion they have told me absolutely nothing. Every horse fits the age profile, the form last time out, the odds, the lot, so all I have left is trainers in my book. Brian Ellison has won with three of his seven runners in this race over the years, making Nietzsche sorely tempting, but Dan Skelton has an even better record – five runners for three winners and two additional places. Beakstown is his runner this year, and although disappointing when only sixth at Kempton last time out, he clearly didn’t get home over the three miles that day, and ought to be a lot happier dropping back to this trip
Saturday
Leopardstown 2.35pm
Of the last 10 runnings two have gone to Dermot Weld, four to Aidan O’Brien, and the last two have headed the way of Jim Bolger, who won this last year with Poetic Flare, who went on to win the English 2000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes as well as placing in numerous other Group One events. Mctique represents the Bolger yard this year, but he needs to step up on what we have seen so far that includes a head win over a furlong further in a maiden and a sixth to Luxembourg in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster. Using juvenile form to assess races the following season is always a risk business, but Dr Zempf has produced enough on the track to get the vote for now. Second to Ebro River in the Phoenix Stakes here in August and beaten less than three lengths when eighth to Perfect Power in the Middle Park Stakes after pulling too hard, if he has trained on, then he has the form in the book to take this barring exceptional improvement from any of his rivals.
Leopardstown 3.10pm
With an 80/1 winner last season and just the one favourite and a joint favourite in the last 10 runnings, caution is very much advised. Contarelli Chapel is a bit of an unknown quantity after winning her maiden at Naas before running badly when possibly in season next time out, and she certainly looks the sort to do better at three. Agartha was well placed last season by Joseph O’Brien and won the Group Two Debutante Stakes at The Curragh as well as coming home second in the Group One Moyglare Stakes, but I am on a recovery mission with Sacred Bridge. The daughter of Bated Breath won her first four at up to Group Three level but looked as if she was over the top in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket when only eighth, a long way off the winner despite being sent off the 13/8 favourite. She still holds entries in both the English and the Irish 1000 Guineas and will need to win this to take up either of those engagements, but if she is back to her best, I see no reason why she cannot get back to winning ways.
Leopardstown 3.45pm
Whoever wins this will no doubt leapfrog a few rivals in the antepost market for the Epsom Derby, but I remember Bolshoi Ballet being talked about as the next big thing after taking this last year, and although he did win in New York later in the season, he was firmly put in his place in Surrey and was never the horse the hype suggested from the Ballydoyle marketing machine. If there is a star in this line-up he has certainly kept it pretty well hidden so far, with Buckaroo the highest rated after a maiden win at Galway and a solid fourth to El Bodegon in the Criterium De Saint-Cloud last October. I am thinking that is by far the best form on offer and although the going seems likely to be quicker here, he ran well in the Champion Juvenile Stakes here despite no luck in running, and that was on good ground. Although I doubt he is a Derby winner in waiting, I do think he is by far the best horse here, though I will also be keeping a watching brief on Vina Sena who is a bit of a dark horse after one run and one win on the all-weather at Dundalk.
Ayr 2.25pm Listed handicap
Much as I like the race and the runners and connections, I do have to question how it can be called the Scottish Champion Hurdle – and then be a handicap, meaning the best horse is anything but the likeliest to win (Milkwood has to give 20lb to the bottom three, for example, which equates to about a 20 length head start). Last season we saw Milkwood win this off a mark of 142, but he an added 8lb this season which will make his life that bit harder – though I am confident this has been his aim all year. Once again we turn to statistics to see if we can find any pattern, however tenuous, and I note that 15 horses have arrived here having failed to complete last time out without producing a winner – so that waves goodbye to Alqamar who unseated Charlotte Jones at Wetherby last time out. Only one winner has been older than nine in the last 24 years so I will also take out Voix Du Reve, while only two came home outside of the top 10 on their last start, which suggests Kihavah has his work cut out as well. 31 horses have tried to carry more than 11 stone six to success – and none have managed - it so I will begrudgingly put a line through Milkwood, and that’s as far as the numbers will take me, and I am down to the remaining five. Socialist Agenda has to carry 6lb more than his handicap mark thanks to race conditions so I can ignore him (in theory), and it’s time to look make a decision. With Brian Hughes continuing to ride as well as ever, Donald McCain in good form with a 30% strike rate at the time of writing, and Barrichello the youngest of the remaining quartet and open to the most improvement, he will do for me as my each-way play.
Ayr 3.00pm
Same again really – good prize money, perfect jumping ground, sensible entry fees – and just the five runners. Remind me again why owners get so little sympathy when moaning about the lack of opportunities? Paul Nicholls has won three of the nine runnings so far and he sends Il Ridoto on the long journey North after his eighth to Global Citizen in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. I am willing to forgive him that run on heavy ground with his better form on a sounder surface, including his one win over fences at Newbury on good to soft in November. He does have a few pounds to find on official ratings but should be a better horse on this ground and with Bryony Frost riding him for the first time, I do expect a far better performance.
Ayr 3.35pm Scottish National
Up to 24 runners, 27 fences to jump, and four miles to travel for the Scottish Grand National – a spectacle I agree, but a race for betting purposes – do me a favour! Once again its all about the numbers for me (it doesn’t work every time as we all know, but now and again it throws out a good priced winner), so let’s set the wheels in motion and shovel more coal on the computer to see what the number crunching comes up with.
The first and perhaps most intriguing filter has to be age – 17 six-year-olds have tried to win this in the 24 years of stats I have to hand – and none have been successful (though six have placed). If that trend continues then we can say goodbye to the early favourite Kitty’s Light, which is either an inspired move – or pure stupidity - only time will tell on that one. I hate to put a line though Vintage Clouds, but he is 12 and that is just too old (zero winners from 25 runners – and stats are stats), and we move on, albeit with a heavy heart. Next up I note all bar two of the winners completed last time out and came home in the first six, so we can lose Streets Of Doyen (pulled up), Strong Economy (fell), Fantastikas (seventh), and One More Fleurie (17th), and now we are down to “just” the 18 to look through – give me strength.
Next stop was official ratings, and only two have won this off a rating lower than 132, so I will dispose of History Of Fashion, Court Master, Ask A Honey Bee, The Ferry Master, El Paso Wood, and Cool Mix, while only two have won off higher than 146, so bye-bye to Hill Sixteen as well. All bar two winners had raced within the last 60 days so I will remove Fidux and Jersey Bean, while all bar two had been in the top 17 in the betting (I am clutching at straws now), getting rid of Prime Venture.
That leaves me with a not so shortlist of eight horses (who knew this was so tricky), and it’s time to look at the form of the horses! Looking at the ratings and the three I like are Ashtown Lad, The Wolf, and Chirico Vallis, and they race off marks the closest to those they have carried to success in the past. Of the trio, I prefer the chances of The Wolf each way more than the others, if only because he ran on so well when second at Musselburgh and may just have the stamina to go well against these rivals
Sean’s Selections:
Buckaroo 3.45pm Leopardstown Saturday
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