ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
If I started anywhere other than a recap of Arc weekend then I would be taken out and shot, and what a weekend it was despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin it with intermittent rain. Saturday is always seen as “next best” but Aidan O’Brien may well disagree after his horses took four races on the card, three ridden by stable jockey Ryan Moore and the other by Christophe Soumillon. Ryan’s were all sent off favourite with two odds on meaning punters would not have got rich on the day, but those at Ballydoyle won’t give a jot as they picked up over £500,000 in win prize money in one afternoon – nice work if you can get it.
Moving on to Sunday and I am still licking my wounds as you do when you have a bad day at the office, but that takes nothing away from the winners on the day. We started with a 33/1 shock as Zaragana got beaten in the opener which wasn’t the best of starts, while Camille Pissarro took the next – as the O’Brien second string, but in a race I passed over – thankfully. The Brits had the first nine home in the Prix de l’Abbaye which may say more about the quality of the French sprinters than it does about ours, and although I feel pleased for the connections of winner Makarova, I doubt I would back her in the replay, having finished behind Bradsell (second here) on her previous starts. I am never too upset if I cannot see why I missed a winner (and I can’t in this case), though how I missed Bluestocking is a different question. Supplemented at great cost (the clues were there), Ralph Beckett’s filly just keeps on improving and was always assured a successful career as a broodmare when she retires, but this was easily her best run yet. Why French Derby winner Look De Vega ran so badly (13th) is beyond me other than he simply isn’t as good as they once hoped, while my ante-post bet on Al Riffa also went in the bin. I am not convinced it was a good Arc to be honest (though I may be talking through my pocket), though we will hopefully see the winner next season to find out how good she really is.
More good news (hoorah) for those of us without the money to head to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup with ITV announcing a two-hour show on the evening of November the 2nd. I suspect we can largely thank the hype with City Of Troy taking in the Classic on dirt for the enthusiasm, but what do we care if we get to see it live. I can’t stand the “World Championship” tag (European horses are at the end of a long season which has seen the downfall of many a challenger before), and the Japanese only send a small team if any at all, but it is still class stuff – even if I have to spend added hours looking at dirt form come the day. Anything that brings our sport into the public eye has to be a good thing, and I urge you to tune in and watch – the better the viewing figures the more racing we will get in the future.
In a week when most things seem to tie back to the Arc, what do we all think of the rise and rise of jockey Rossa Ryan? Still only 24 if google is to be believed, and with many years left in front of him, he already sits second in the jockeys’ championship and proved his worth on board Bluestocking last Sunday. A natural horseman according to those who know more than an armchair jockey like me, it may only be a matter of time before he gets called up by Godolphin, Juddmonte, or (in my opinion more likely), Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore, if and when Ryan Moore decides to call it a day. Young, stylish, and very much on the up, his is a career I will now be following with even more interest with every chance he has further improvement to come.
Lastly , and before we move on to the racing on Saturday, what do we all make of the sums being paid at the sales this week, with Amo Racing coughing up 4.4 million Guineas on a Frankel filly and a further 2.5 million Guineas on a full-sister to Arc winner Alpanista in a spending spree totalling £12.6 million – with more expensive purchases on a daily basis. Add in Sheikh Mohammed spending millions on other yearlings including 2.9 million Guineas for a Dark Angel sister to Queen Anne Stakes winner Charyn, and German Derby winner Palladium joining Nicky Henderson for a possible career over jumps for a record 1.4 million Euros, and you can forgive outsiders for thinking all is well in the World of racing. Personally, I have no issues how anyone (legally) spends their money, and if I had won a rollover Lottery I would be there bidding against them, but it doesn’t look good to the public as racing goes with a begging bowl for money from the Levy, owners moan there is insufficient prize money, racecourses claim they can barely break even – and top owners spend telephone numbers for horses that may not live up their her breeding – a strange world, eh?
Fancy a listen instead? Sean chats with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here and its free!
Saturday Racing
1.15pm Newmarket
A Group Three to start our day and the intriguing runner has to be Peace Man, the winner of his last three starts from May to June 2023, gelded in October the same year – and not seen since. He is one to watch this afternoon but after 470 days off the track I can’t be backing him, not with Lead Artist in opposition. The Gosdens (who also train Peace Man) have always held the son of Dubawi in very high regards, and in reality, he hasn’t really won as many races as they would have hoped – so far. He did win the Bonhams at Goodwood in August over a mile, and was then beaten two lengths by seven furlong specialist and Group One winner Kinross in the Group Two Park Stakes at Doncaster last month, but he is bred to be perfectly capable over the nine furlongs this afternoon, though I would be hoping the ground dries out a little by race time – soft ground may not be in his favour.
1.50pm Newmarket
Two-year-olds over a mile and a quarter on good to soft ground (at the time of writing) is a major stamina test, and as the Zetland Stakes has no distance winners in the field, we are going to have to second guess via form and pedigree. Sadly, that points me towards current favourite Shackleton, the mount of Ryan Moore who presumably had the choice of the two O’Brien runners. Second on his first two starts, he made it third time lucky in a Curragh maiden when winning by two and a quarter lengths, running on strongly to go clear of the field over the mile and a furlong. That is the sole thing that draws me to him here, not the actual form to be totally honest, with stamina seemingly his strong suit, and if he improves again, even the 9/4 as I write may prove to be excellent value after the race.
2.25pm Newmarket
Delacroix is a fairly short-priced favourite for the Autumn Stakes after coming home second at odds-on in the Group Two Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown last month, but I am not overly taken with that form and prefer the odds about Charlie Appleby’s Silver Peak, a winner at Haydock last time out on only his second start. Yes, this does represent a big step up in class for the son of Dubawi who cost 1.25 million Euros as a yearling, but his trainer has won this race for the last four years on the bounce as has jockey William Buick, and I am hoping if not confident that he may be a lot better than we have seem so far.
3.00pm Newmarket
Every year the Aidan O’Brien camp unleash a so-called wonder beast, and sadly I have learned to turn a deaf ear, as they can’t all be world beaters can they? The Lion In Winter is the latest off that particular production line, and he heads to the Dewhurst Stakes unbeaten after two starts at The Curragh and York, the latest when winning the Acomb Stakes by a length and three-quarters from Wimbledon Hawkeye, who franked the form when easily winning the Royal Lodge Stakes here at the end of September. He did miss an intended engagement with a minor injury, but I cannot believe Aidan would send him here if he was not fully recovered, and although I doubt he is as good as they may suggest he is, he is already antepost favourite for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby 2025, and he will need to win this to justify those lofty aspirations.
3.40pm Newmarket
One handicap today and that means a chance to break out the statistics - -sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t, but we had had some big priced places recently so need to change the pattern. Two and a quarter miles is a serious stamina test that suits some and not others, and I am hoping we can find a decent option at an each way price once more. I am using 15 years of results for this assessment (14 runnings) and the first thing that strikes me is that we have only seen one solitary winner drawn higher than 24 which seemed a good starting point, until we ended up with 25 runners! All of them finished in the first six on their previous start which came as a bit of a surprise to me, while the odds don’t help us much with winners from 4/1 at the low end up to 66/1 for those who like outsiders. Twelve winners were aged seven or younger BUT we haven’t seen a successful three-year-old since 2009 so I am happy giving that age-group a swerve, 14 were rated 86 or higher and 14 were rated 101 or lower so that gets rid of plenty, and 14 had last raced within 120 days (none in the last seven). Add all those together and we come up with a shortlist of just the four horses (Evaluation, Sea Of Sands, Sixandahalf, and Trooper Bisdee), so my next stop is to look at their handicap marks. Sea Of Sands is the fly in the ointment having won a Group Three in Germany in 2021 and a maiden hurdle in September at Listowel but at 9/2, he can win without carrying my money. Evaluation races off 5lb higher than his last win at Wolverhampton in April which makes him one to consider, but I keep coming back to Sir Mark Prescott’s Trooper Bisdee as my each way suggestion. One of only three distance winners in the field having scored at Pontefract in June, he is the only one on my shortlist with the guaranteed stamina, and at 25/1 or thereabouts, he will be the one I will be backing – each way of course.
4.50pm Newmarket
The booking of Ryan Moore to ride Craig Lidster’s Alfa Kellenic seems to have swayed the market fairly dramatically as the three-year-old is trading as short as 2/1 as I write which seems over the top for a horse stepping out of handicap company and into Listed class for the first time. That said, she is still probably the likeliest winner having won her last six starts and racing up the handicap from an opening mark of 70 in June up to the 101 he races off here (though it isn’t a handicap, of course). Rage Of Bamby would have been my each way alternative had he been bigger than his current price, but the suggestion is in such good form she is hard to oppose, regardless of the odds on offer.
Sean’s Suggestion:
The Lion In Winter 3.00pm Newmarket
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