ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
The Grand National is over for another year and that seems as good a place to start as any. I am not one of the naysayers going round saying “it isn’t the race it used to be” or words to that effect – past renewals were more exciting, there were more thrills and spills – and there were more casualties to go with it. Some would suggest we still send small children up chimneys with a shout of “those were the days”, but the World progresses and although I don’t always agree with some of the 21st century “improvements”, if we can limit casualties (priority one), and at the same time fend off the army of do-gooders and animal liberation fanatics, then it’s a job well done and a win-win scenario as far as I am concerned.
As for the race itself, with no prejudice involved someone needs to question why the Irish trained the first four home, and six of the first seven. I won’t wear the “better horses” or even the “better trainers” argument here – that works in level weights (or weight for age) races but NOT in a handicap – each horse who ran in the Grand National arrived with an official rating, which in in turn allocated a weight to carry on the day – so top-weight Nobel Yeats carried 11 stone 12, and the bottom weights all carried 10 stone 7, theoretically giving the majority an equal chance (some had to carry more than their mark which put them at a disadvantage). That aside, I repeat my question – why did the Irish dominate to such an extent? Sadly I do not have the answer (like most things in racing I suppose), but more importantly I am not seeing the question being asked anywhere else and it should be – are they getting in off a mark lower than reality, for example, or are their true abilities better hidden (seems unlikely)? Whatever the answer is, someone needs to be looking into it – NOT because the Irish won, I have zero problem with that – but as an investigation into why their horses outperform ours under almost every metric imaginable.
Meanwhile Chelmsford raced on Saturday with their first race at 10.00am which caught a few of us off guard despite knowing it would be coming. The idea is to free up space between races on the afternoon cards to allow the sport to sell the product to new (and hopefully) returning customers, and although not exactly popular in the industry (an early start for those traveling from the North, for example), I can buy into the concept. What I was more concerned about was the report via the Racing Post that attendances were surprisingly high at about 1000, and that included about 180 guests from the Japan Racing Association – so 820 attendees without them. I may be horribly off target here, but is that really seen as a good figure for a weekend card – looking at the football and both Chorley and Southport (in the National League North) have average attendances of 1070 – and there were considerably more football games supports could go to. Of course I accept fan loyalty within those statements, but I still have to go back to the old argument of too much racing – do we really need so much racing and perhaps so many courses (and I am not picking on Chelmsford for a second by the way), or should we be looking at a less is more attitude like the Irish do to create more competitive fields and a desire to go racing when the opportunity arises?
Lastly, (and I keep searching for good news stories to no avail), we have the announcement by The Jockey Club that they are being forced to cut funding by £750,000, which equates to £1.5 million by the time levy payments and entry fees are taken into account. Financial headwinds were the reason given, which may well boil down to negative media coverage for the sport (guilty as charged on occasion but I am only looking for solutions), lower than expected crowds (and thus revenue) from the Cheltenham Festival, and lower income thanks to the knock on effect of affordability checks as they are in their current guise (not enforced by the Gambling Commission but hey ho, the bookies seems to get away with doing what they want. Although not sport threatening in itself, it needs to serve as a timely reminder to the Gambling Commission, the government, and anyone else who thinks the reduction in racing income estimates were scaremongering, that the threat to our sport is all too real – and much as I don’t not expect them to completely back down, they may need further convincing of the knock-on effects they seem woefully ignorant of.
Tired of reading – this is 2024 after all – if so try the Podcast where you will get differing opinions from Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/04/19/underpants-brazilians-and-the-scottish-national-winner/
Saturday Racing
Newbury 1.30pm
The John Porter Stakes over a mile and a half is an early season test for some of the better staying types and with some decent if not quite top-class winners over the years. Ralph Beckett and Sir Michael Stoute are the only trainers to win this more than once in the last 10 years (twice each, to be exact), while only two favourites have come home in front in the same timescale, with 18/1 shot Grand Alliance winning last year to the bookies’ delight. Nine of the last 10 winners were aged four or five which rules out five of this field (assuming that run continues), leaving me with only five to choose from – and William Buick on board 14/1 chance Chesspiece for the Crisfords. He could go well, but the hope is that Arrest has improved from three to four in which case he will be a force to reckon with this season over middle distances. A winner at Chester (taking the Group Three Vase by over six lengths) and at Newbury (Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes) last season, he ran his best race in defeat when second in the Group One St Leger at Doncaster in September, behind the classy Continuous but ahead of Tower Of London who has won two races over further and over £2,000,000 already this year. That form looks solid to me, and he is not being overfaced here for his first start of the season – though we are guessing at his fitness level for his first start of the new turf season.
Newbury 2.05pm
The Fred Darling has always been seen as a solid 1000 Guineas trial for the fillies, though times change and the last horse to run here and go on to Classic success was fourth place Lahan in 2000, suggesting times have dramatically changed. We have only seen two winning favourites and have a frankly disappointing six runners this year despite its Group Three status, though it still looks a competitive affair. The hat-trick seeking Regal Jubilee heads the early betting after her Listed win on her final start, but she is officially rated 99 and will need to improve again to get the better of Relief Rally, who won the Lowther Stakes last season (Group Two), and sits next in the betting, while Folgaria intrigues as an unbeaten filly who has won five starts in Italy but has moved to Newmarket with Marco Botti. It really is a tough one to call but I was very taken with the debut victory of Elmalka who won her only start at Southwell in November. She missed the start that day and looked as green as grass but once the penny dropped, she showed a decent turn of foot to win by a length going away, and if she improves as much as I hope (and she will need to!), then connections can look to the 1000 Guineas next month with relish.
Ayr 2.25pm
I have never really understood how any “Champion Hurdle” can be a handicap but here we are with the Scottish equivalent over two miles, which has admittedly attracted a decent enough field in the hunt for the £56,270 on offer to the winner. Looking at the statistics and in the eight runnings in the last decade, all the winners had finished and come home in the first eight on their last start. Seven were aged five to seven, seven were 12/1 or shorter, seven came from the first eight in the betting, seven were rated 146 or lower, and seven were rated higher than 133. None had raced in the last 7 days, seven had raced in the last 60 days, and if we add all those together we end up with a shortlist of just three - Westport Cove, L’Eau du Sud, and Favour and Fortune. Of that trio Favour and Fortune has hurdling questions to answer which make him a dodgy suggestion, while the early betting suggests Westport Cove is not the Willie Mullins number one (Bialystock has that honour at present), so L’Eau du Sud it is. Second on his last two starts with a length second in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time out, he is out to go one better here and an added 3lb from the handicapper may not be enough to stop him.
Newbury 2.40pm
The Greenham Stakes is another recognised trial, this time for the 2000 Guineas, though you have to go all the way back to a certain Frankel in 2011 to find the last winner here who went on to Newmarket glory. The Hannon team have won this three times but they are the only stable to take this more than once in the last 10 years, making Son an outsider (25/1 as I write) to at least consider as an each way alternative. Zoum Zoum heads the betting at a pretty short price and he will need to be carefully campaigned this year as a gelding and thus ineligible for the Classics, and he should prove hard to beat if he is wound up for his return to action, but at the odds I would rather back Army Ethos each way at a bigger price. Trained by Archie Watson in Lambourn, he is rated 4lb or more higher than his rivals according to the official handicapper, and has the added benefit of a potential fitness edge having already had a run this year at Newcastle in early March. Beaten at odds-on that day, cheekpieces are added for the first time this afternoon as he steps up a furlong, and if they help him focus then he has every chance. An easy winner at Ayr on his debut in May 2023, he ran his best race when beaten a neck by favourite River Tiber in the Group Two Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in June but he picked up an injury in the process and was then off for close to nine months. I doubt he was 100% that day regardless of his odds (who pushes a horse too hard if they are returning from an issue) so I am expecting plenty of improvement today, though I have to be honest enough to say the seventh furlong here is a question mark when you have a deeper look at his pedigree.
Ayr 3.35pm
Four miles over fences for the Scottish Grand National to end with, and if we can find the winner here it will be a miracle! Once again I will start with the statistics, and again we have eight runnings in the last 10 years to work with (no point in going back any further in my opinion). Seven winners had finished in the first five on their last start (the other fell), so 100% of the finishers, no six-year-olds have won in that time (though the Mullins trained favourite looks to buck that trend), no winners were officially rated below 135, and none above 146 either. None last raced in the previous seven days, and all had run in the last 60 days, while trainer Paul Nicholls has won this twice. Once again we put that lot into the mixer and come out with a list of potential contenders of Beauport, Iron Bridge, Ballygriffincottage, Tommie Beau, Broken Halo, and Mr Vango – not bad at all from a field of 26! Although there is no guarantee the winner will come from the six, I am hoping it will, and at the early prices I have had a small (very small) bet on Broken Halo each way. One of two Paul Nicholls runners, he won last time out at Taunton and looks an interesting ride for Bryony Frost. He has won off higher marks in the past and will enjoy carrying just ten stone five this afternoon, and if he puts in a clear round (not guaranteed), the 40/1 is just a little too tempting!
Sean’s Suggestions:
Mirabad 2.32pm Wincanton Sunday – a promising hurdler who pulled too hard on his debut over obstacles at Wetherby but showed signs of ability that day and he looks all set for a big run here if he has been taught to settle.
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