I am going to start with the negatives and move on to something that will hopefully make you smile – though I do struggle most weeks to find what you would call a happy story I am sorry to say.
Wouldn’t you love to have been a fly on the wall when racings powers sat down and came up with the fabulous idea of having fireworks as the horses went to the start for the Epsom Derby – what bright spark came up with that idea I wonder, and where are they working now? I am sure many of you have been close to horses, but for those not so privileged I can only attempt to describe the anger of a certain Nicky Henderson at a yard visit in the rain one time when a member of the media (not me) dared to have an umbrella in sight of his horses – it was an absolute No No, and the person concerned was chastised like a naughty schoolboy. As you can imagine, if they can react to a stationary umbrella what would fireworks do to their fragile senses, and when you think hardly anyone could see them anyway (it was broad daylight), you have to wonder not only who thought of it, but who signed it off as well.
On to things more positive and was Desert Crown one of the best Derby winners of recent years – or just the best of a bad bunch? In the blue corner, we saw a beautiful animal floating along in midfield before showing a devastating turn of foot to put the race to bed in a matter of strides, before idling a little in front to come home two and a half lengths clear of the field. Ever the romantic, that is my view of the race, but in the red corner, there is a good argument that the runner-up was a 150/1 chance rated 105 whose only win was in a York maiden. The truth is we will only find out as the season unfolds, but to me, does it really matter as long as we continue to have some competitive racing among the better three-year-olds?
Talking of the classic generation, good or bad, it does look as if the rest of the year is going to be a corker – as long as the bean counters looking at stud and paddock value allow them to take each other on, of course. As well as Desert Crown and the unlucky third Westover we have Oaks winner Tuesday and unlucky runner-up Emily Upjohn to look forward to and as if that isn’t enough, French Derby winner Vadeni is their latest star. He ran away with the French Derby at Chantilly on Sunday (though how the European pattern committee planned the French Derby to be on the same weekend as ours is beyond me), though he looked a bit petite to me and I do suspect (with any amount of bias), that our classics form will prove to be considerably stronger as the season progresses.
Meanwhile, the HBF (Horserace Bettors Forum) ran a Twitter poll a few days ago on the raceday experience – I won’t bore you with the details here (mainly because I haven’t the time to turn them in to worthy statistics), but I will be running through a few replies on the podcast (see link below), so why not give it a listen?
Tired of reading – hear my opinions plus those of Ron Robinson (World Of Sport, Post Racing etc) here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/06/09/average-derby-winner-and-whose-was-the-dope-who-suggested-fireworks/ on the weekly podcast
On to the racing….
Friday
3.30pm York
Our only race in the UK to talk about today sees £34,000 to the winner of this Listed race over the York mile, though sadly a disappointing six stand their ground from a much bigger field at the early declaration stage. Mohaafeth is the highest rated runner for William Haggas and is clearly a decent horse, though his last six starts have all been over a mile and a furlong or more, including a running-on tenth to Lord North last time out at Meydan in the Group One Dubai Turf where he was slowly away before powering home when the race was all but over. He has a tongue-tie fitted for the first time today which will aid his breathing, and with every chance that market rival Valiant Prince will take them along at a good gallop, I am hoping the race will be set up for a closer which is what he will be over this reduced trip.
10.50pm Belmont Park (New York)
The New York Stakes (Grade One) is something a little different I felt it might be worth having a look at, and the $750,000 to the winner has certainly attracted a decent (if small) field of fillies and mares, though the fact that Chad Brown trans four of the seven declared makes life that little bit more complicated. Rougir is certainly interesting having won in France at Group One level for trainer Cedric Rossi in the Prix de l’Opera last year, and she proved that was no fluke when scoring on her second start in the USA here at Belmont over slightly shorter. She could go well but I will stick with Bleecker Street, a daughter of Quality Road who cost $400,000 as a yearling and has her first start at this level, but arrives unbeaten after six starts. Basically we just do not know how good she is just yet, with a Grade Two at Tampa Bay her most notable success so far, but you never know how good they are until they are beaten, and hopefully that will not be tonight!
Saturday
3.20pm Chester
With just the three runnings of this race past statistics won’t help us very much, but we do know that over seven and a half furlongs at the Roodeye, a low draw is seen as handy – though the facts don’t really back that up over this trip, and I am happy enough to include every stall in my calculations. Derby winning jockey Richard Kingscote is the man of the moment, and I think (or hope) he can get a tune out of course and distance winner Outgate here despite the burden of top-weight. He won a similar race here in May off 5lb lower in the handicap, and never really recovered after being hampered at the start last time out at Haydock before coming home in third. Left on the same mark here, a clear run ought to see a far better effort and although the draw is not imperative (as mentioned), he does pop out of the two stall which gives him every chance.
2.50pm Sandown
A Listed race over the five-furlongs for us here, but with good to soft ground predicted I am thinking it will play out like a six-furlong race this afternoon. Live In The Dream could go well here having won his only start on this going at Chester and with a one run one win record at Sandown, and he may prove to be the biggest danger to Mitbaahy. A son of Profitable he shows surprising speed over this trip when you see the stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree and won very easily last time out at Hamilton in a Class Two Conditions Stakes. Produced late on that day to win going away, he handled the cut in the ground there and races on a similar surface here (barring freak weather), and may well be a sprinter on the upgrade with a step up in to Group class hopefully just around the corner.
3.05pm York
Some better than I expected runners here on the weekend before Royal Ascot and a decent race is on the cards, though it still looks pretty competitive to me and finding the winner is no cakewalk. Although he needs to find a couple of pounds according to the official rating, I am going to side with Mandoob here for trainer Brian Meehan, who I have a lot of time for. Lightly raced for a four-year-old with just five career starts, he has won two of those (at Lingfield and Haydock), and ran perhaps his best race yet when a two-length second to the Royal Ascot bound Al Aasy at Ascot, with the third over two lengths adrift. Better still, that was his first start in over seven months, and his first following wind-surgery, and if he improves at all for that (and he should), then he has to be the value call this afternoon.
11.44pm Belmont Park (New York)
The final leg of the America Triple Crown and although I do not profess to having too much expertise in racing Stateside, it is a Grade One and thus worthy of more than just a cursory glance. I suspect it is a rarity to see the Kentucky Derby winner unlikely to go off favourite here, but Rich Strike was an 81/1 chance at Churchill Downs before running down the leaders late on to take home first prize. The general school of thought seems to be that was a fluke, but are we really saying every other horse in the race ran massively below form – or did the son of Keen Ice simply show marked improvement? I guess we will find out tonight, but as he looked as if he would do even better for the mile and a half he faces here, and connections deliberately missed the Preakness to have him fresh for this, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he can prove how good he really is – one way or the other.
Royal Ascot next week
Although I am on holiday next week I do still hope to throw a little something together for you (no promises) but until then, how about a little taster for you to at least consider (though if you have a punt, make sure it is with a non-runner no bet bookmaker please in case of a late withdrawal). Royal Scotsman is in the care of Paul Cole and his son Oliver and word is that they see him as their meeting banker. Admittedly the yard may not be the force of old, but the son of Gleneagles stepped up on a disappointing debut at Ascot (gulp) and ran away with his next start at Goodwood, but more importantly, he has improved again since. I am told (rightly or wrongly) that they have worked him with plenty of their better older horses and he has destroyed them all without turning a hair, and if that is the case, and with the likelihood of some powerhouse rivals from more fashionable yards, I will be backing him each way in the Coventry Stakes on the Tuesday afternoon.
Ascot Ante Post Suggestion:
Royal Scotsman each way 3.05pm Ascot Tuesday 14th June
Sean Suggestions:
Comments