***Don't forget my NH Stats book is still available on Amazon - just search "Trivass"***
The Breeders’ Cup last weekend all went pretty well personally with some winners (and more losers), and cannot pretend that Flightline was anything other than impressive in winning the classic, but fast as he was in the race, connections moved even faster when packing him off to a new career at stud after just the six starts, all of them winning ones. Incredibly, someone bought a 2.5% share in him (so a fortieth) for $4.6 million, valuing him at $184 million, and to me, that is just madness. I have always worried about the tail wagging the dog in racing (they should breed horses to race, not race horses to breed), and when you consider his career earnings were “only” £3,341,487 the maths confuses me totally with his breeding top-class, but not out of the ordinary.
That bring me neatly (and you thought this was written on the wing) to taxing stud farms here in the UK as an encouragement to keep horses in training longer, and make our racing more competitive at the highest level. Whenver racings finances are discussed (or lack of them) the powers that be roll out the age-old arguments of bookmakers (effectively us punters), racecourses, and even owners – but they rarely if ever mention the profits made by the auction houses or the stud farms. Surely a horse sold to stud for an exorbitant figure filets down to the winner who has to pay more at auction which in turn increases his or her needs for a bigger return in prize money – yet that aspect of the overall cost seems conveniently brushed under a carpet. Surely a tapered stud tax that reduces with a horse’s age would encourage owners to keep a horse in training, and provide some much-needed funds to the industry overall – or am I barking up the wrong tree daring to even suggest it?
Lastly on my chit-chat for this week, and I suggest you listen to the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk(available late Friday) for Ron’s vociferous views on the issues with low sun. Stealing his thunder I am confident we will find his argument is about races over hurdles or jumps when low sun sees numerous fences omitted and the race is turned in to a farce. As a punter I look through each race in detail and may even discount a dodgy jumper – when I think there are numerous obstacles they can make a mistake at – only to find numerous fences left out, and the race turns in to something we did not expect. I may be wrong, but I would take a guess that the sun sets at about the same time each day at the same time of year, so why can’t they run a bumper then where no fences are involved, and the low sun doesn’t really matter?
On to the racing:
Friday:
Cheltenham 2.55pm
I am going to focus on the Cheltenham meeting this afternoon and why not, it is the home of National Hunt racing after all, and you rarely see a bad horse sent there thanks to the competitive nature of almost every contest (ground permitting). Unlike many punters I don’t mind a veteran’s chase – after all, we have all the form over many years to work with regarding trip, going, track, and everything else we may need (famous last words). In this case we are talking a fraction over two and a half miles over fences for the 2.55pm and a quick look at the stats soon tells me that Ballyandy and Magic Dancer are the only course winners, though those victories were in bumpers and hurdles so that tells us very little. All of them have won over the distance, but only Elegant Escape, Ballyandy, and Kauto Riko have won off their current marks or higher over fences, which points me in their direction. Elegant Escape has field to finish in three of his last five starts which sets alarm bells ringing, while Kauto Riko unseated at Carlisle and hasn’t won since February 2020. That leaves me with Ballyandy, who had a pipe-opener when third at Perth in late September, and had the speed to win bumpers and over hurdles at two miles, and that may give him the edge this afternoon.
Cheltenham 3.30pm
Just the seven runners for the Grade Two Hyde Novices’ Hurdle but a real who’s who of the training ranks with most of the top yards represented. Hermes Allen looks likely to go off at a short price for the bang in-form Paul Nicholls stable after he hacked up on his first start under rules to win by 27 lengths at Stratford, making all and coming home unchallenged. He cost connections a ridiculous £350,000 after winning his point-to-point at Kirkistown in November 2021 and earned £4,085 before deductions over hurdles, so he only needs to win another 84 similar races to pay that back – and that doesn’t even include training fees. If he does live up to his price tag then he ought to win this before going on to bigger and better things, though do keep an eye on the currently unbeaten Weveallbeencaught who is held in high-regard at the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard.
Saturday
Naas 12.20pm
Trainer Willie Mullins has won four of the last nine runnings of this contest suggesting that bumper winner Eabha Grace should go well on her first start over hurdles, but making a profit backing the Mullins horses seems to get more difficult every year, and I doubt she will provide us with any value. Low Mileage could go well at a big price for the Dempsey team whose horses are always worth a second look, but on this occasion I will side with Hiddenvalley Lake, who has his first start for Henry De Bromhead. Once raced in a Ballndenisk point-to-point, he looked the likeliest winner before being carried out by a loose horse at the last, but that did not stop connections paying £200,000 for him at the December 2021 sales. He hasn’t been seen in action in over a year but is reported to have been schooling well at home and if he is fit enough to do himself justice, he should hit a place at least this afternoon.
Cheltenham 12.35pm
I won’t even pretend this is a race I like the look of with three unbeaten horses, three unraced over hurdles, and others with any amount of improvement to come. Perseus Way could be the dark horse here having won on the Flat at Newbury for Owen Burrows last time out and a market watch may give us the best guide to his chances, but with the Paul Nicholls string in such good form, I will stick with Blueking D’Oroux. Already a winner in France he is reported to have strengthened considerably over the summer and with glowing reports coming out of Ditcheat about his abilities, he looks the one they all have to beat in a contest that may be full of future winners.
Naas 12.55pm
A disappointing turnout of five at the most here (Lunar Power may head to Dundalk Friday instead) and it looks like a straight fight between Triumph Hurdle runner-up Fil Dor for Gordon Elliott, and Fred Winter winner Brazil for Padraig Roche. According to the official ratings Brazil should come out on top at these weights, and he does have the advantage of a recent run when second at Tipperary last month, but hopefully, class will tell. Connections still hope they have a Champion Hurdler on their hands, and if that is the case, he will need to give the 9lb away this afternoon and still come home an easy winner.
Cheltenham 1.45pm
I love to watch these novice chases as we all make notes for future reference and this looks a class renewal of a race won by some decent sorts over the years. Five and six-year-olds have dominated in recent years which concerns me slightly as I go for the year older Pentland Hills, highly regarded in the Nicky Henderson yard and the winner of the Triumph hurdle and the Doom Bar Hurdle in 2019. Minor issues have seen him lightly raced since, but he won on the Flat at Haydock in September on his first start in two and a half years and could be back to his best. A walkover at Huntingdon denied us our first chance to see him over fences, but he is expected to take high rank over fences this year and may well make a winning start under Nico de Boinville here.
Cheltenham 2.20pm
Here we go again with a bit of profiling for the Paddy Power Gold Cup as we look to see if we can find a shortlist that will hopefully contain the likeliest winner. Looking back over the last 25 runnings for clues, and we haven’t seen a winner older than nine which instantly rules out Slate House and Coole Cody. Only one winner has carried more than 11 stone nine so I am happy to overlook Mister Fisher, Editeur Du Gite, and Simply The Betts, while only one winner has been officially rated below 136 – so bye bye to Storm Control, Galahad Quest, and Deyrann De Carjac. All bar one have come from the first 10 in the betting, so using early prices (I don’t have a choice) that leaves me with “just” the six horses on my new shortlist. Every winner raced in the last year so we can also reluctantly lose Happygolucky, so in theory, the winner will be one of French Dynamite, Stolen Silver, Ga Law, Il Ridoto, or Midnight River. Of those, two haven’t been seen in over 200 days and although that isn’t something that will stop them winning, it does make it a bigger ask, and I will pick between French Dynamite, Ga Law, and Midnight River. Seven year olds have a better record than their younger rivals, and that is just about enough to point me to Midnight River. Trained by Dan Skelton whose horses are in good form, he strolled home on his return to action at Stratford, and although upped 8lb by the handicapper, may have more to come after just the five starts over fences.
Wetherby 2.28pm
Five fairly unknown quantities to assess for this introductory hurdle with four of the five declared a winner last time out – and the fifth a decent second. I was impressed with Matata when he own as he pleased on his hurdling bow at Fakenham and he may well prove to be the biggest danger to Throne Hall who I feel is overpriced at the forecast 5/1. Decent on the Flat with a rating of 94, he made a winning start over obstacles at Uttoxeter despite guessing at some of his hurdles, and if he has learned from that education, he can only improve. If this gets tactical as small field can, he has the speed needed to put this lot to bed, and at the prices, he may be the best value on the day.
Lingfield 2.35pm
Judicial won this race in 2019 and arrives in winning form after scoring at Beverley in September and he could run in to a place, while Irish raiders Logo Hunter and Harry’s Bar came home second and fourth in a group three at Dundalk last month and are entitled to have some say in where the prize money goes here as well. All three can go well, but if Summerghand arrives at his peak, he could be the one they all have to beat. The eight-year-old won the Ayr Gold Cup in September and went close to following up when a fast finishing second in the Group Three Bengough Stakes at Ascot, and if he can get going earlier here he may be able to pounce close home assuming we see a decent early pace.
Lingfield 3.10pm
Evania has done nothing wrong with two wins from two starts, but she does need to find a lot more here and a place may be the best connections can realistically hope for. Rewind 18 months and we are all talking about Bolshoi Ballet winning the Derby after his six-length success in the Leopardstown Derby trial, but he trailed in a 17 length seven and has raced abroad ever since. A win in the Belmont Derby (New York) saw some retribution and he hasn’t been disgraced at Grade One level since, while blinkers are added for the first time here in a race he will need to win before he embarks on another International campaign that may well take in Hong Kong in December.
Sean’s Suggestions
Each Way double - Hiddenvalley Lake 12.20pm Naas and Pentland Hills 1.45pm Cheltenham
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