Well I managed two out of three singles last week as well as a separate win treble, all at ridiculously short odds but you can’t have everything in this life, and I will happily settle for that I assure you.
This time last year I would have suggested it was time for me to be sent out to the paddocks had I even hinted at excitement over a Newcastle all-weather card, yet here I am, chomping at the bit ahead of what we hope will be the long awaited return of racing with a nine race card on Monday afternoon. Early entries show either fantastic support from owners and trainers or the need to get some income back in to the stables via prize money, but either way, I have been looking forward to seeing the final line ups which will be out at lunchtime today thanks to the current 72 hour declaration stage.
Having a punt will be even more “fun” than normal with the unknown fitness of all the runners whereas in past season we knew those who had arrived from a winter campaign may have had the edge. Step forward Sean the anorak, complete with a handy list of ten year statistics of those trainers who seems more adept than others at readying a horse to do their best after a three month or more sojourn. Those in turn are split in to two, one for profit (Tim Easterby is your man there with entries on Monday, all six of them), the other John Gosden who has a close to one in four strike rate which I find pretty impressive. Sadly, everyone knows about the Newmarket trainer’s skills and his runners will be priced accordingly, but the news is out there, and I can only pass on the benefits of all my hard work.
Naturally, I am already suggesting I have precious little clue about the Monday winners and like everyone else, I would love to know whose horses are in form and whose aren’t, but like everyone else I am just looking forward to some racing on home “turf”, but until then we can still focus on our International colleagues. Fabulous news to see that South Africa look likely to go ahead from Monday onwards (also behind closed doors of course), and that may well be enough to save their industry from demise which would have been disastrous for all concerned, so good luck to Gold Circle and Greyville if they do open the stalls next week as expected.
This weekend we may well be best to start off focussing on the Far East with both Hong Kong and Tokyo putting on racing of great interest, and at Sha Tin all eyes will be on the jockey title battle between Zac Purton and Joao Moreira and the debut of Australian import Lucky Express, who won two of his three starts as a juvenile at Bendigo and then Caulfield back in 2019 when known as Prince Of Sussex. Although absent for close to a year now her has been seen at the barrier trials not once but eight times as trainer John Size put him through his paces while allowing him to acclimatise to his new surroundings. Just like back at home, his fitness will be the key today in a tricky looking contest and also the great unknown but if he is to live up to his HK$8.9 million price tag, then he certainly needs to get competitive at this standard and above. His trainer does seem less than enthusiastic to be fair and debut winners are a rarity, but he looks a classy sort to me and at the prices, I am happy to take the chance.
Over to Japan next and their Derby will be run at Tokyo with a competitive field of eighteen runners suggesting an each way option may be the sensible way forward with the odds on Contrail likely to prove hard to beat, but a silly price in field of this size. Unbeaten after four starts including the 2000 Guineas, he may well be the latest superstar off the production line, but I can’t suggest a bet at that price (4/7). The quicker ground here should suit Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho Kinen runner-up Wakea more than the yielding he encountered last time out at Nakayama, and he has been quietly backed in the market this week. Christophe Lemaire keeps the ride on the son of Heart’s Cry though there has to be a concern regarding the trip on breeding, though connections obviously think otherwise. Freely available at 16/1 at the time of writing he has a decent place chance at the very least and is one to at least consider in a wide open race if you take out the jolly, of course.
Two more races to go and I cannot ignore the Classics, with the French 1000 and 2000 Guineas on Monday afternoon at Deauville. With plenty of the Andre Fabre team looking as if they would come on for the run, Tropbeau bucked that trend when taking the Prix de la Grotte at Longchamp three weeks or so ago. She will get the cut in the ground that suits her better than most and should go well in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches but my third suggestion will be a colt instead with too many fears over the likes of Simeen who looks unexposed.
At 2.50pm on Monday the boys do battle4 over the mile in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains where the betting seems to assume that a fitter Victor Ludorum will reverse recent form with The Summit, but I am not so sure. The son of Wootton Bassett did have a run under his belt that day but certainly wasn’t stopping when scoring last time out and although front runners are there to be shot at, if the wily and experienced Oliver Peslier may well be able to dictate matters from the off, in which case the 7/1 looks stonking each way value to moi.
Finally, the chance for something completely different and even an opportunity to hear my dulcet tones! I have started a weekly podcast with my friend Ron Robinson discussing all things racing (if you are after something intellectual I suggest you go elsewhere), it is just a bit of fun with the odd serious moment, and is downloadable here for those with nothing much better to do https://www.postracing.co.uk/podcast/the-post-racing-podcast-29-05-20/ - enjoy!
Sean’s Suggestions:
Lucky Express 10.50am Sha Tin Sunday
Wakea each-way 7.40am Tokyo Sunday
The Summit each-way 2.50pm Deauville Monday
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