And the good news is – we are recording a podcast again this week, so you don’t have to read all my waffle and BS before you get to the horses – you can just tune in here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/09/30/its-arc-weekend-and-ron-and-sean-have-it-all-boxed-off/ and listen to my dulcet tones if you want to – or not if you have something better to do, of course.
This week Ron and I will be discussing recent drink related issues at the racecourse, Frankie’s Magnificent Seven 25 years on, the potential effect of a future whip ban, Ballydoyle hype, and the 2021 Arc – so of any of those are of interest, have a listen, I promise to try to keep on subject this week, though no guarantees!
Friday Racing:
3.05pm Ascot
There is a quarter of a length between 6/4 favourite Scope and 4/1 chance Mandoob on a line through Yibir (who beat both of them), but I am yet to be convinced that either of them are at their very best over this extended trip, and I am happy to take a chance on the upped in class Chalk Stream who would be a very popular winner at Ascot for The Queen. Last seen running away with a mile and a half handicap here last month, he deserves a crack in better company, but Newmarket trainer William Haggas has sensibly decided Listed will do for now, though he looks to have Group class written all over him. His last three wins have seen varying tactics employed and he can make all the running if necessary here, and he only had to find 5lb more improvement to take this according to the official ratings.
5.15pm Dundalk
A low draw is seen as a necessity here at Dundalk over the five furlongs and that makes life very easy here, in theory at least. Forecast favourite Ladies Church is drawn in the 12 stall (of 14) and will need to be very special to win from there, while second favourite (and my preference), Geocentric comes out of the favoured one box. Trainer Ger Lyons and jockey Coin Keane won this last year with Frenetic which is a positive and the son of Kodiac was one place in front of the jolly at The Curragh in August before a third to Vertiginous when pulling too hard for his own good at Ayr last time out.
6.45pm Dundalk
The same pairing I have gone for in the 5.15pm here have the favourite this time around with the once raced Markaz Paname, who quickened up nicely to win his maiden at Cork and could be anything. He is not easy to overlook here either, but I note the Aidan O’Brien horses are now back to their best, and he relies on Leinster House. Another win a one from one win record, he dead heated over a furlong shorter when getting up close home at Naas. He raced awkwardly that day and did well in the circumstances and as a son of War Front may well take to the all-weather better than some.
Saturday Racing:
Longchamp 12.23pm
All eyes here will be on the unbeaten Manobo who strolled home by an easy ten lengths at Saint-Cloud in a Listed contest over a mile and a half last month, and that was when returning from a 100 day break, and as things stand we have no idea just how good he is. A son of Sea The Stars out of a Nayef mare we don’t know for whether he will stay or won;t this mile and seven furlongs, but he wasn’t stopping in France and if he does stay, we may have the next Stradivarius on our hands for all the Cup races next season
Longchamp 1.33pm
Firstly, I had one of my best days racing ever in Spain (on the beach) a couple of years back so good luck here to Spanish raider Rodaballo, though if he isn’t hopelessly outclassed here I will l be surprised. Real World has been a revelation since coming back from Dubai and has rattled off three wins in a row at Ascot, Newbury and York, but rattled is the word with two of those wins on lightning fast ground, and there is a doubt he will be the same horse on the softer going expected here. Dilawar looks interesting and is the one with the most improvement to come by the look of things, but I will take a chance on The Revenant in the hope he can bounce back to his best. Ten wins from 15 starts prove he is a class act with a Queen Elizabeth II Stakes success at Ascot last October topping the list, and he arrives here fresher than most after just the two starts this season. He hasn’t been seen since May but has been saved for this race (hopefully) and will get the softer ground he needs to be seen at his best which is a bonus, making him each way material in my eyes – if nothing else.
Longchamp 2.15pm
Much as I hate to tempt fate this does look l like a race we can win with Stradivarius and Trueshan the obvious standout contenders. Although I am a big fan of the Gosden’s seven-year-old I have felt he was going backwards this season, and with the rains falling it may be better to side with the younger option for Alan King, though I say so with zero confidence. A winner last time out at Goodwood he should go close, as should last year’s winner Princess Zoe, but the truth is I do not like the look of this race one iota, and won’t be opening my wallet on this occasion.
Longchamp 2.50pm
They don’t get any easier to solve, do they? Valia is better off at the weights with Joie De Soir, but the last named may have more room for improvement as a three-year-old, so who knows what order they will come home in? Both should go well but I have tossed a coin in my head and come down on the side of Andre Fabre’s daughter of Fastnet Rock if only because I am in awe of the trainer in another race where I rather doubt I have a bet.
Longchamp 4.00pm
Another interesting race with Megallan a class act if he handles the ground, but unbackable in my eyes having struggled whenever he has encountered a softer surface. Dubai Honour has form on good to soft which is promising and he certainly enters calculations, as does Magny Cours who is decent but far too short in the betting for my liking. Saiydabad gets my final vote after a narrow win last time out after a typical heart-stopping Soumillon ride, and if the ground isn’t too soft, he should go well and is backable at an each way price.
Ascot 2.40pm
This looks all about Hukum to me as the one true Group class runner in this field. He has already won three times this season at Goodwood York and Newbury in this grade and has also run with distinction here at Ascot when third to Wonderful Tonight in a Group Two, rounding off with a neck second to Hamish at Kempton when he may well have choked on the kickback from the all-weather surface. Back on turf he is hard to oppose with second favourite Title stepping up in grade after easily winning a Class Two handicap, which in my view isn’t good enough to win here barring further improvement.
Ascot 3.15pm
No real draw bias that I can ascertain and a decent sprint on offer – may the best horse win. Glen Shiel is the best horse here by a few pounds on official ratings and he should go well having won the last time he ran at this level back in August last year at The Curragh. He has been competing in all the best Group One contests without success recently with a six length tenth of 11 at Haydock in the Betfair Sprint Cup last month but he really ought to find this far easier pickings, and looks the one they all have to beat with any further rain a bonus. Boosala is a big danger and held in the highest regard at the Haggas yard by all accounts and he could be anything, but this still looks a big ask on what we have seen so far and returning from nine months off the track.
Newmarket 2.55pm
An interesting race full of horses I have a lot of time for which made decision making that little bit more difficult for me. Tahlie intrigues on her first start since joining Roger Varian and looks sure to go well but she was behind Mother Earth when eighth at Deauville in August and there is no reason to suspect she can reverse that form. Aidan O’Brien’s horses appear to be coming back to form after a lull by his high standards, and her form is there for all to see. The winner of our 1000 Guineas she was then second in the French equivalent, third at Ascot in the Coronation Stakes, second to Snow Lantern in the Falmouth Stakes, won the Prix Rothschild at Deauville, and hampered when third last time out in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. My worry is that she has had a long hard season, but she oozes class and may well add this to her CV before a future in the breeding barns. Saffron Beach is another to consider but she looks more likely to challenge for the places than win but she won’t go under without a fight, that’s for sure.
Sunday Racing:
Longchamp 3.05pm
Is this one of the best Arcs on paper in many a year, or is it only me? It is very very sad in my book that the rains have fallen (not exactly unusual, I know) with the majority of the better form on offer achieved on a far quicker surface. Running down the runners (not all of them, don’t worry), and Adayar did win the Derby on good to soft, and at Nottingham as a juvenile on soft, and that form makes him a major player here. Tarnama has won in going with cut in it as has Hurricane Lane, but I am worried about Snowfall whose best form (with the exception of the Oaks) is on a better surface. Love has never run on soft let alone won on it, while my long terms selection Chrono Genesis has won on yielding in Japan, but seems better suited to a quicker surface. I still hope he will go well and may still back him each way, just in case, but it’s decision time I guess! I am wary that Hurricane Lane may have had his speed blunted by winning the St Leger over further, remembering the Arc can often be a stop start affair followed by a sprint finish. Adayar has both speed and stamina making him my number one pick, and strolled home over a mile on soft ground as a juvenile, suggesting conditions will not count against him here. He may well become the first three-year-old since Enable in 2013 to take this contest, though I will also back Chron Genesis each way as I believe he is the best horse in the race – if he handles the conditions.
Sean’s Selections:
Geocentric 5.15pm Dundalk Friday
Manobo 12.33pm Longchamp Saturday
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