ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Lucky you.
I have had a very busy week culminating in a meeting to discuss Open Banking with one of the likely/possible providers where I at least had the chance to put forward the punter view that basically said if we won’t hand over bank statement, we aren’t going to bend over and allow access to our banking details! I am hoping (time will tell) that they took on board all my thoughts and objections (it was a very amicable informal meeting to be fair) and will take them away to try and formulate a workable solution, though we all know punters are a funny bunch (aren’t we just!), and we won’t be going down without a fight.
That does mean I am short on time so with apologies, that’s your lot for waffle this week (I’ll be back in full flow next week, don’t you worry)
On to the racing….
Saturday
2.00pm Epsom
When you see the short-priced favourite hasn’t won in over a year despite five races, alarm bells should start ringing, and although I will cover this race, I cannot pretend I have 100% confidence – because I don’t. Running Lion heads the early betting for the Gosdens after her second in the Group Two Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her return, but she was put in her place by the winner that day, and hasn’t won outside of Listed company – yet. She clearly won’t go under without a fight, but at these weights surely Chic Columbine is worth an each way play? She is officially rated 3lb inferior to the Gosden filly but as a three-year-old, gets 12lb form her older rival, and has won on the soft going twice and heavy once – so any further rain (who knows) won’t hurt her chances. She won a decent Listed race at Saint-Cloud in March and was then unsurprisingly outclassed when 12th (beaten six lengths) by Rouhiya in the Group One Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) but drops in class this afternoon and at a double figure price she could go well and even win.
2.35pm Epsom
Older horses hold sway here in recent years with four eight-year-olds successful in the last10 years, and I am sorely tempted by Sean (great name), who has been running respectively in Group races in Dubai and can be forgiven a poor effort on dirt at Jebel Ali. He seems to handle almost any going with wins on heavy, soft, good to soft, and good, and may find this company less exacting at an each way price, even if he is “only” seven years old. Royal Scotsman failed to win last season but competed exclusively in Group One company including a third in the 2000 Guineas on soft ground and is another who can go well despite a poor run in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, while Sir Michael Stoute’s Regal Reality won this last year and is back for more – at the age of nine.
4.30pm Epsom
I feel morally oblige to cover the Derby but it isn’t a race I will be betting heavily in with more questions than answers. Aidan O’Brien has won this five times in the last 10 runnings which is a remarkable statistic, and he has three in here, Euphoric (second in the Leopardstown Derby Trial), Los Angeles (unbeaten winner of the same race), and City Of Troy, last season’s top two-year-old, but a bitter disappointment when sent off odds on for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Money talks in racing as it does in much of life, and I cannot help but note that Ryan Moore, in for his winning percentage if he can come home in front, doesn’t desert City Of Troy despite the obvious claims of his stablemate. Whether I am caught up by the Coolmore marketing machine or not is up to you to decide, but Aidan is as open as any trainer with the media, and seemed to suggest he may have left the son of Justify ”undercooked” ahead of his return. If that is the case we MAY see him back to his best here, and on breeding there is every reason to think he could be far happier at this extended trip and at the latest price of a drifting 7/2, I am mug enough to go in again. Those looking for a bigger price could do a lot worse than the one raced Voyage (each way) who really took my eye when winning at Newbury, while Ambiente Friendly would be a popular winner for the likeable James Fanshawe after his impressive win in the Lingfield Derby trial.
Sunday
3.05pm Chantilly
I cannot ignore the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) from Chantilly (possibly the most beautiful racecourse in the World) this afternoon where I am all over Ghostwriter like a rash. He had no luck at all in the 2000 Guinaas, starting slowly before stumbling after clipping heels, unbalanced when hitting the dip at Newmarket, and then running on to be beaten less than five lengths at the line. Upped in trip here I am really hopeful he can make amends despite the very different way French races are run (a crawl and a sprint nine times out of ten), and if he gets the run of the race I am hoping he can get the better of a very strong home defence for this million pound contest
Sean’s Suggestions:
Ghostwriter to win 3.05pm Chantilly Sunday
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