I am daring to have some down time over the next few weeks with a couple of jollies to Spain and my annual excursion to the Durban July in South Africa, so please forgive me for a shorter than normal article this week, and the possibility of nothing for the next few weeks – we all need to recharge our batteries sometime and now I have hit the big 60, I can’t put all the hours in I could in my youth!
I do plan/hope to write a little something in depth for Royal Ascot (or alternatively you could buy my Royal Ascot Stats book here https://tinyurl.com/27vf2hnh , though if you don’t order quickly, Kindle may be your best bet in case they can’t deliver in time.
Talking of Royal Ascot (did you see how smoothly I did that?) I do feel at this stage there is room and enough time for a brief chat over some of the main contenders – though obviously I would be far happier if I knew what ground we would be facing come raceday!
For many this is the biggest week on the racing calendar (those who have never been to Cheltenham, at a guess), and although I can get frustrated by the excessive emphasis on the fashions and the celebrities (most of whom I have never heard of), the racing is straight out of the top drawer and is not to be missed.
I cannot even contemplate going through ever race at this stage (the handicaps are an unknown quantity at this time for starters), I can give you a heads up on a race a day to whet the appetite before we reach any final conclusions nearer to the off time – though please only pace any early bets with non-runner no bet rules with your bookmaker - plenty of these have multiple entries at the meeting.
*** Please note – I have NOT used my own stats book for the comments below because at this time the runners and odds are unknown and they form an integral part of how past statistics work ***
Podcasting – I am at it again with “my partner in crime” Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame and our thoughts can be heard here (free of charge) https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/06/16/the-dash-farce-the-derby-and-some-royal-ascot-pointers/
Royal Ascot Tuesday
Queen Anne Stakes
It was interesting to read Charlie Appleby bigging up the chances of Native
Trail after a Newmarket gallop on Wednesday morning – when he trains the current 7/4 favourite in the shape of Modern Games. I have always been a fan of the son of Oasis Dream who should get the quicker ground he thrives on, and although only second on his return at Newmarket, he looks to have thrived since then. 13/2 or thereabouts looks an each way play to me with James Doyle expected to be in the saddle, and lest we forget, he did win the Irish 2000 Guineas last season after a second in our equivalent, and on his day he is clearly top class
Royal Ascot Wednesday
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
This race is all about Luxembourg and Adayar if you believe the betting, and it may well go the way of one of that pair, but which of the two I ask myself, and I have come down on the side of Derby winner Adayar. Although he is clearly a little fragile with just the two runs last season, he retains all his ability and won on his return at Newmarket and is reported to have thrived ever since. A recent piece of work was described as spectacular by some and if he is at his very best, he looks the one they all have to get past. Sir Michael Stoute now relies on Champion Stakes winner Bay Bridge in the absence of Desert Crown, and he fits the bill at 11/2 as I write, but he may have to settle for the minor placing if the front two run to form.
Royal Ascot Thursday
Ribblesdale Stakes
It really is guesswork at this stage who will or will not show up for this mile and a half Group Two contest for three-year-old fillies, but if Dermot Weld thinks maiden winner Azazat is up this class, then she almost certainly is. The wily trainer knows the time of day and very rarely overfaces his horses so the fact that the daughter of Camelot is ready to step up dramatically in class hopefully tells us something, and although she has always raced on softer going at home in Ireland, she is bred to be even better on this much quicker surface. Stamina appears to be her forte so I expect her to be ridden near to the pace to avoid being caught flat-footed late on and at a huge price, assuming she turns up on the day, there will be horses who finish behind here if I am calling this correctly.
Royal Ascot Friday
Coronation Stakes
No prizes for picking Tahiyra here as Dermot Weld’s filly looks all set to follow up a mightily impressive win in the Irish 1000 Guineas last time out. Everyone knew they felt our Guineas came too soon for her but she still did well to finish second to Mawj at Newmarket with the rest seven lengths or more adrift at the line, but she showed improvement to toy with her opposition at The Curragh to win hard held at odds-on. Her conqueror is all set to re-oppose which makes life interesting, but the faster going may be in the Irish raider’s favour and of all my “picks” here, she looks one of the more likely to run in her nominated contest.
Royal Ascot Saturday
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
As everyone knows by now I am a big champion of international racing and hats off to the connections of Wellington who has travelled over from Hong Kong to test his abilities against the best of the European sprinters. It will always be a troublesome experience with a long journey, strange stables and staff, and a different time zone, all of which are unknown quantities, so we can only look at the form book. In my opinion (and it is all about opinions), both Hong Kong and Australia have more strength in depth in their sprinting ranks than we do, so we can also expect bold efforts from Artorius, Cannonball, and The Astrologist (if they run here as opposed to elsewhere at the meeting), but Richard Gibson’s looks the one to me. A six-year-old gelding with 12 wins and close to £6 million in win and place prize money, he has kept running in to Lucky Sweynesse at home, who has beaten him on six of their last seven meetings, but he has hit a top three spot in four starts this year, and with the winner officially rated the best sprinter in the World at present (and the third best horse of all after Equinox and Golden Sixty), connections have every reason to hope for a huge run.
On to the racing….
Saturday
2.00pm York
With no offence intended to any individual concerned, starting off the ITV 7 with a Ladies Amateur Jockeys Handicap seems a strange move, and although I will be made to look stupid as the favourite romps home, this is not a race I would pick to have a bet in if I had a choice. In the last 10 runnings no jockey has won this more than once, and the only trainer to double up (Jim Goldie) doesn’t have a runner this year, so it’s back to the drawing board. Serena Brotherton is normally my “go to” jockey for such events but there is a question mark over the trip for Yorkshire Lady, so on this occasion I am switching allegiance to Kayleigh Stephens’ mount Saratoga Gold. Third on his return to action at Newmarket off 1lb higher in the handicap, I felt he didn’t get home over the mile and three-quarters that day returning from a break, but he should strip race fit this afternoon. He has won seven races in all, five over this trip, and although he needs a career best off his current rating, he looks to have as good a chance as any in the race.
2.15pm Sandown
From one handicap to another, this time over a mile and a big field without a single last time out winner in the line-up to call upon. We haven’t seen a winning favourite since 2017 but I am hoping that may change assuming the Sir Michael Stoute trained New Dimension keeps his place at the head of the market. A lightly raced four-year-old, he won first time out at Leicester on his only start as a juvenile, and had a shortened campaign last year with a second and a fifth before being gelded in July. One run since saw him weaken close home over further to finish fourth at Yarmouth, but even then I got the impression he may have more to offer. Ryan Moore rides, and he won this in 2016 and 2017, the first of those for Sir Michael, and at 6/1 as I write he looks likely to prove hard to keep out of the frame.
2.35pm York
Oh dear, it’s silly bet time! As I have mentioned before, once you see something you cannot unsee it, and even at odds of 20/1 (now 7/1!) I am sorely tempted to have a little each way on Wild Lion here. He has already won a couple of races on the all-weather and wasn’t beaten that far in a decent handicap when last seen at Meydan despite finishing tenth. Saeed Bin Suroor has his horses running well which is a bonus, while cheekpieces are added for the first time to help him concentrate, suggesting he could hit the frame for us here at a decent price.
2.50pm Sandown
Havana Pusey could go well here despite her lowly rating with every chance she still has a lot of improvement to come, while Tajalla arrives unbeaten, but faces quick ground for the first time and is anything but guaranteed to act on it when you look deeper into his breeding. Perdika is the best in at these weights according to the ratings but she has been sent over to France for her last two runs suggesting connections may have been searching for a bit of cut in the ground, so it may be best to side with favourite Great Statehere. Richard Fahey in in among the winners recently and the son of Havana Grey has gone from strength to strength, winning his last three, the latest at York in Listed class. That does mean he has to give 3lb or more to all of his rivals, but he arrives at the top of his game, and seems difficult to oppose.
3.05pm York
Stamina is the name of the game here with a mile and three quarters to cover but it does look to be at the mercy of the Gosdens trained Israr, a short-head second in the Group Three Aston Park Stakes on his return to action, and effectively dropping in class here. He stayed on well that day and had one time 2021 Derby favourite Bolshoi Ballet behind him in third, suggesting the form has a decent look to it. Thanks to race conditions, form danger and course and distance winner Roberto Escobarr has to give him 5lb which may prove a big ask, though to be fair trainer William Haggas did win this in 2017 and 2021 and will know exactly what is needed.
3.20pm Chester
A tricky handicap where at first glance I was interested in Marco Botti’s Royal Dubai, but a combination of top-weight and a stable that could be in better form were just about enough to put me off. Lower down the weights James Doyle rides Monte Linas for the Crisfords and at 14/1, I feel he has an each way shout. A winner on his Chelmsford debut, he has found trouble in running on both starts since with a two length second at Chelmsford and a two length fifth at Chepstow, but he makes his handicap debut off what may be a lenient mark of 83 this afternoon, and if he gets a clear run he may surprise them all.
3.40pm York
Spirit Of Applause is worth a second glance for Tim Easterby who has won this three times in the last 10 years, but the bigger question here is where will the pace be once the stalls open. High drawn horses are responsible for three of the first four in the betting suggesting there will be plenty of speed on that side headed by favourite Quinault who is looking for his fifth win on the bounce, but he has another 5lb now and will need to improve again if he wants to continue that run. I am hoping there is enough early speed on the other side as well. Last season’s winner did come out of the 19 box, but prior to that they broke from stalls 3,3,5,1, and 7, giving me hope that the lightly raced Garner has a chance. Two runs at two saw the son of Recorder come third at Lingfield before winning his maiden at Nottingham for the Charltons before heading to the sales this February where he changed hands for 30,000 Guineas and moved to the care of Archie Watson. He returned with a win after making the running at Lingfield to win very comfortably, and although this is his handicap debut, he may have a bigger chance than his odds suggest.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Each way each and an each way double
New Dimension 2.15pm Sandown and Monte Linas 3.20pm Chester
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