Japan Cup 2024 - A Strong European Challenge For A Change

This time last year I headed off to Toyko to see the final race of the great Equinox, and this year I have been lucky enough to be invited back by the Japan Racing Association with every chance we will have three or four European challengers for the main event – exciting times and a trip I have been looking forward to.

For those unfamiliar with the race, we are talking about a Grade One over a mile and a half on turf, and with 500,000,000 Yen (£2.55 million) to the winner in prize money plus potential bonuses. As a European I can safely say we haven’t been sending our “A” team over in recent years, though the recent retiree Sir Michael Stoute does sit joint top of the training tree having won this with Singspiel in 1996 and Pilsudski in 1997. Why we don’t target such a valuable race in a country where they spoil and welcome the connections is beyond me I’m afraid – but that was then, and this is now as we launch a very strong challenge for 2024 with a Derby and a King George winner for starters.  

Arriving on Wednesday night, my first trip Thursday morning was to trackwork at silly o’clock (I am NOT a morning person these days, trust me), and it was an interesting comparison to others jurisdictions with less horses working than, for example Hong Kong, but we were still lucky enough to get a decent if distant view of Derby winner Auguste Rodin (Aidan O’Brien),  King George winner Goliath (Francis Henri Graffard), Grosser Preis von Baden winner Fantastic Moon (Sarah Steinberg), and Le Nomade (also Francis Henri Graffard and racing on the Saturday card) – more and stronger interest from Europe than last year, perhaps proving just how unbeatable Equinox was aways going to be.

Despite sitting nodding wisely with the other scribes as we watched them gallop in the rain, I learned very little other than they still all have four legs, (thankfully). Unless you watch them work on a daily basis, how can you possibly tell if they are working better or worse, but what I could do was listen astutely to their connections in the post gallops interviews.

Francis Henri Graffard - seems confident

First up we had Monsieur Graffard and jockey Christophe Soumillon. Call me childish if you like, but there was something amusing about questions being asked in Japanese, translated into French and then answered in English, but whatever the language there seemed a lot of confidence behind the King George winner, who has travelled well, is working well, and is here as his post Ascot target with a prep race in between to put him spot on – or 150% as Francis described him.

I did like their attitude I admit, with his American owner joining the fray and extremely enthusiastic about taking on the world with the son of German Derby winner Adlerflug, though I am not sure how diplomatic he was to tell the Japanese media that everyone knows the best turf racing is in Europe!   

Next up was Aidan O’Brien who to be fair is very generous with his time to us media, sitting quietly and thoughtfully as each long question in Japanese was translated to English for him to answer. Although saying all the right things as always, and reporting Auguste Rodin to be in fine fettle, the usual enthusiasm seemed strangely absent – though he could have been tired, of course.

The one and only Aidan O'Brien

Unsurprisingly, there were more questions about Auguste Rodin’s Japanese sire Deep Impact than there were about the actual horse, but we did find out there will be a retirement ceremony for Auguste after the race and before he heads off to stud – setting conspiracy theory alarm bells ringing in my head – is that the reason he runs here, with the additional publicity increasing his value for his next career?  

Lasty, we had both Frau Steinberg and jockey Rene Piechulek, representing Germany and Fantastic Moon, and they seemed politely positive, though my main source of amusement was hearing the German language peppered with the occasional “Fantastic Moon” or better still, “turn of foot” – little things please little minds I suppose?

Sadly, we only get to physically see the “foreign” horses and their connections, and as we have all learned to our cost over the years, there is such a thing as home advantage, and that needs to be taken into account before any conclusions are made - thankfully, there is just the one race to deal with.

Decision Time.

Despite some light rain, as I write we are expecting a decent surface come race day, probably on the fast side of good by the time we get to Sunday afternoon (24th November).

The King George form confuses me totally with Auguste Rodins’ connections attributing his poor showing to softer ground – and race readers putting the quicker ground down as the reason future Arc winner Bluestocking got beaten – so which one was it?

 I am inclined to think that the O’Brien colt can have an off day and that may be the truth of the matter in July at Ascot, and they are duty bound to have him at his peak for his swansong – but will that be good enough, or has the bubble burst, that is the big question and we won’t know the answer until after the race?

Japanese horses are as good as any in the World these days, and I can only applaud them for continuing to see a mile and a half as a true test for the thoroughbred, unlike Europe where we continue on a slippery slope of breeding for speed, but who is the best of their contenders?

 If the betting is to be believed, then Japanese Oaks winner Cervinia is the one to beat after the daughter of Harbinger followed that victory with success in the Shuka Sho, but she is up against the boys here and may not find these rivals quite as simple to deal with.  

Do Deuce sits next in the betting, and I get the feeling that the five-year-old could prove too good for all of these. His latest win in the Tenno Sho had to be seen to be believed coming from second last and miles off the pace to win going away at the line without needing to be hard ridden, and a repeat of that may be more than enough, though those with a weak heart may be best avoiding a bet if he is ridden here with similar restraint!

As for the Europeans, I am wary that the big field won’t suit them as much, but I will come down on the side of Goliath to come out best of the trio, though to be honest, all things seem possible.

80,000 people will be inside Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday afternoon, and thousands will have queued all night after the Saturday card finishes to get a decent viewpoint – that is what racing means to the Japanese public, and if I could buy some of that enthusiasm to bring home to the UK, I would risk trying to smuggle it through customs.

Sean’s Tips for the Japan Cup Sunday 24th November 2024

1pt to win Do Deuce

1/2pt each way Goliath

Sean Trivass is a guest of the JRA but has written this article independently – with a review of the day and the race to follow.

On to Saturday's racing next....

Busy doesn’t even start to sum up my week as I am in Tokyo for the Japan Cup AND continuing to beaver away looking for winners to pay for the sushi! Haydock put on a card I am genuinely sorry to miss with the opener a prime example as six of the seven runners won last time out, but there ought to be better value to be found elsewhere and I am going to start with a risky one in the Graduation Chase at 1.50pm. Everyone knows the Skelton team have started the season like a scalded cat, and it is rare for a Saturday to go by without at least one televised winner – but can Deafening Silence keep that up I wonder. Currently a 12/1 shot in this small field, the seven-year-old won his last two starts over hurdles (and was only beaten a length in the other), but it is over fences where they expect to see him at his best. Highly regarded at home ahead of his chasing debut, this two miles five will bring about plenty of improvement, though it is over three miles later in the season we will see him at his absolute best.

I am guessing I must have missed the news where one of Bravemansgame’s legs fell off, because if not, I cannot for the life of me understand why he trades a 16/1 shot ahead of the Betfair Chase at 3.05pm Yes I have noted my old mate Ahoy Senor is in the field, and he is duty bound to win the one day I am not on him, but the value call surely has to be the Paul Nicholls trained nine-year-old with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle while Harry Cobden rides at Ascot. Two runs at Haydock have seen the popular chaser win over  two miles five and finish second in this last year when sent off odds-on (how times change in this sport), and although he meets 2023 winner Royale Pagaille on the same terms, this will be his second start after wind surgery which may (hopefully)  make all the difference. Is he a good thing or a certainty here, absolutely not, but should he be as big as he is – same answer – and if eight or more hold their ground, he looks excellent each way value.

It seems fair to say that Jeremy Scott would not be the first trainer name on many people’s lips, but he has already done a fantastic job with Golden Ace, who has her first start of the season in the Ascot Hurdle at 2.45pm. The winner of her four starts over hurdles with an eight length wide-margin victory at Cheltenham when last seen in April, she is officially rated 144, which leaves her with a little to find even at these weights,  but I doubt we have seen the very best of her just yet, and any further improvement may see her land the NAP hand.