I failed to get much of a mention of Equinox into my last article, but having read the opinions of others better qualified than me (they do exist), people are beginning to suggest we may be talking about the best horse of all time. Now as you will all know I believe that title goes to Frankel (though I am very biased), and perhaps I refuse to accept his equal can be born in my lifetime, but time may tell I am very wrong – we shall see. Japanese owned and trained, the four-year-old broke the course record at Meydan when taking the Dubai Sheema Classic but better still, he was never off the bridle and could have won by far further had he needed to pull out all the stops. That said, we have to remember the going was clearly faster than the official description of Good (every race except the Dubai Turf and the Sprint clocked a better than average time), and that runner-up Westover has a mixed bag of form to his name), and for me, the jury is still out. Sadly, it seems beyond unlikely we will see him in Europe let alone the UK thanks to our prize money issues, and he (like Constitution Hill) seems all set to prove me wrong, but until he does, I will simply watch his exploits with interest.
Meanwhile, can anyone explain to me whether the race planners actually plan anything in advance because if so, what on earth are they up to? Last Saturday saw the much hyped start of the new turf Flat season at Doncaster which hopefully to better weather over the months ahead, closely followed by the same venue on Sunday – but on Monday we had two all-weather cards and one over jumps, which I saw as a bit of a disappointment. Surely if you are rolling out the marketing machine at great expense for a new season you keep the ball rolling over the days ahead, but no – we had a single meeting on the turf flat from Thirsk on Tuesday, one from Nottingham on Wednesday – and none on Thursday again as we reverted back to the all-weather with Chelmsford and Southwell plus a couple of meetings over jumps. Being and old fogey I liked the old days when you could tell what season you were in but not, it all seems a bit of a mess.
Next in my list of question marks I have noted some horses being heavily backed all morning from huge prices downwards before showing amazing improvement to come home alone and land the odds. I am not quite daft enough to name names (lawyers are far too expensive), but I am aghast that feeble explanations for the improvement are seeming accepted by the authorities when perhaps further investigation is needed. Now I love to see an old-fashioned gamble landed as much as anyone (especially if I got on at the better prices), but the other side of the coin is the protection of those not in the know. What chance has the form studying punter got when a horse who has never got within 30 lengths of the winner in 10 outings is suddenly backed from 40/1 to 3/1f and wins pulling a cart – if that was in the City someone would be screaming insider trading and I do feel the powers that be need to do something, or at least be seen to be looking into these things with more vigour.
On the brighter side did you see what happened at lowly Bath his week? ARC basically increased prize money for the day and ended up with most races massively oversubscribed to the extent that literally hundred were balloted out and did not get a run. Good for Bath, good for punters, and good for the racegoers – but if ever racing needed evidence that prize money is one of the main reasons for small fields, they got it at Bath and in spades.
Next up, my thanks go out to Laura at OLBG for sending me an e-mail with Worldwide jockey earnings in a neat little chart that even I could understand. Suffice to say Frankie Dettori is the only UK jockey who appears in the top 50, with Japan the dominant force. Yutake take heads the list having won over £756 million for his owners, and when you consider he probably gets at least 10% (plus a riding fee), you can easily understand why he hasn’t retired just yet! Eight of the top 10 are Japanese with the 10th ranked still winning over £308 million, while Puerto Rican John Velazquez has won over £387 million, most of it in the USA, and tops the non-Japanese list by some margin. To put those numbers in to perspective, Frankie has won £170 million or so in his long and distinguished career and gets on to the chart at number 42, though Christophe Lemaire is the leading European born jockey at number 11 with £298 million – seems like I am in the wrong job.
Lastly, out comes the begging bowl (no its not for money yet) – can you all fill out the HBF survey please – the more replies we get the more confident we can be that we are working on behalf of the punter in the street and it won’t take that much of your time?
Oh, and my latest books have now been published – one for Aintree (so hurry up if you fancy a copy) and one for the UK Flat – all stats based as always but well worth consideration at the very least!
Bored of reading like me? Go to the podcast https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/04/07/itv7-comp-equinox-is-he-all-that-and-japanese-jockeys-earn-how-much/ to hear my thoughts and those of Ron Robinson of Postracing fame!
On to the racing….
This week we are going to have a look at the ITV 7 for something a little different – though by definition they are tough old races so I’ll be happy with a winner or two!
Saturday
Haydock 1.30pm
Plenty of distance winners but not a course winner amongst them makes life that bit more tricky, but I note that younger horses historically do well here, and with only one winner carrying more than 11 stone, I will focus my attentions lower in the handicap. Bubble Dubi would be the obvious choice after an easy win at Stratford last month but he steps up in class and has an added 5lb from the handicapper today, suggesting the 4/1 currently on offer is of very little value (famous last words). He is lightly raced and could have more to offer but I will be taking a chance on Aggagio who is on a retrieval mission after being sent off favourite when third at Fontwell over further last time out. Already a winner at Fontwell, Leicester, and Hereford over hurdles this year, and six times a winner on the Flat, he gets in here off just 10 stone four less Caoilin Quinn’s 5lb claim, he could well have enough class to at least hit the frame today at a double figure price.
Musselburgh 1.50pm
As things stand Musselburgh could yet put on a card racing on the quickest ground we have seen in the new Flat season to date - though it is still good to soft so punters beware. The Johnston yard have won three of the last four runnings of this mile handicap and they have two entered here here in Lion Of War and Finn’s Charm, and I prefer the first named of their pairing as he at least has some form on ground with plenty of cut in it. Neither have been seen this season so there wellbeing is an unknown factor so I will risk switching my allegiance to Dunfries, who won readily enough at Southwell to suggest he is going the right way. Sent off a 6/1 shot that day I am hoping that means he wasn’t fully wound up, and although he hasn’t raced on a surface like todays, he is related to some decent sorts in Germany where the ground is invariably similar or worse than he will be facing here.
Musselburgh 2.25pm
Gweedore won this last season and is back for more but he is rated 7lb higher in 2023 though to be fair, jockey Billy Loughnane is the man of the moment, and claims 5lb of that back today, though the five stall is not likely to give him any advantage. Autumn Festival won five on the bounce at the end of last season, three of those under Danny Tudhope and the last of them over this course and distance, and if David O’Meara has him fully wound up he may have even more to come. Only a four-year-old, he doesn’t mind a softer surface which is a positive, and he only has 3lb more than his last success, and if he can get to the lead bright and early, he may lead them all a merry dance.
Haydock 2.40pm
We go over fences for our next race on Haydock’s mixed card, and it’s a big field with 15 runners and I seriously suggest you hunt down a bookie paying a place for the first four home. We haven’t seen a winning favourite in the seven runnings of this contest, and although Alan King has won it twice, he doesn’t have an entry for 2023 so that’s no use to us I’m afraid. Only one winner has carried more than 11 stone two which part explains why Dan Skelton’s Jeffery’s Cross heads the early market, but a good look at his form is another decent argument we can use. Although put in his place when beaten 19 lengths by Coolvalla at Fontwell in December, he was giving the winner 3lb which with hindsight was an impossible task. The winner has gone on to win off 13lb higher at Exeter and is now rated 135, a full 23lb higher than the Skelton horse today. He has proved tricky to win with having come home second on all four starts this season which is a concern, but he arrives here fresh after a decent break and deserves his place as the likely favourite.
Musselburgh 3.00pm
Interestingly four-year-olds have a terrible record here and are without a win in the last 10 renewals, and if that trend continues, we can put a line through five of the 14 entries. This is a race I really don’t have any strong opinions on to be brutally honest, and I would be no more surprised if any horse I chose came home first – or last – in this field. The fact that Water of Leith is a 50/1 chance probably tells you all you need to know, but he does seem to have more going for him than his price implies. Trainer Jim Goldie has his horses running to form more than most with a 67% RTF figure according to the Racing Post, and the five-year-old fits the age grouping and has had a run recently when well beaten at Newcastle last month. If he strips fitter for that run he could surprise a few if he handles the softer going, though if you bet more than 10p each way you need your head examined like me!
Haydock 3.15pm
These ITV7 races don’t get any easier, but I am hoping a wind operation works miracles with My Bobby Dazzler, second in a similar race at Chepstow last time out when staying on well after being left with far too much to do. He runs off the same mark this afternoon suggesting there is no reason he can’t go well once more, and with the Mel Rowley string in fine fettle he seems to have plenty in his favour. Add in the fact that he looks to be in the right weight range based on recent winners and he has only had the three races this season making him fresher than some, and there is every hope he can sneak into a place assuming he gets the rub of the green.
Musselburgh 3.35pm
Four of the last five winners have carried nine stone or more, suggesting the fancied bottom weights may be up against it here, and if that is the case, then Pleasant Man comes into calculations. Placed on his last four starts over hurdles, he is a rare runner on the Flat for trainer Paul Nicholls but won a similar race at York off just 2lb lower when trained by Roger Charlton in September 2021, and clearly has plenty of ability. He will be fitter than most after a second at Hereford in February and with Kevin Stott booked to ride, looks to have a pretty decent chance this afternoon.
Randwick 7.35am
Not a race I plan to have a bet in, but well worth a mention as the ex Andrew Balding trained multiple Group One winner Alcohol Free makes her Australian debut having been sold at the Tatts December Sales for an eye-watering 5.4 million Guineas. Now in the care of the legendary Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and with James McDonald in the saddle, she starts off at Group One level in this mile event for fillies and mares where she races at level weights with the rest of the field. Naturally, I have no idea if she has settled into her new surroundings, or is ready to go, or has other targets hence the lack of a bet, but I will be watching her debut with interest to see how our better form compares to that the other side of the racing world.
Sunday Bonus!
Fairyhouse look the place to start this Easter Sunday with a high-class card to look though, and although the betting suggests Willie Mullins’ Ashroe Diamond in the one to beat in the 2.35pm, I am not so sure. At first glance she is the yard’s number one with Paul Townend in the saddle, but I was quite taken with stable companion Night And Day when she took her maiden at the second attempt at Clonmel in January. She pulled clear with ease to score by 22 lengths that day and lets not forget, she is owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, who have Daryl Jacob as their retained rider. Naturally she needs to take another step forward to land a contest of this magnitude at 2.35pm, but she is not here to make up the numbers and at 8/1 or bigger (with any luck), I am looking for a big run at an each-way price.
Mighty Potter was half a length in front of Appreciate It at Cheltenham when third in the Turners Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen, ruining plenty of Irish bets in the process where many saw him as the banker of the entire week. He could well bounce back to winning ways here, but 11/8 seems skinny enough, and I am hopeful of a change of tactics on the Mullins runner. He can be a bit clumsy at his fences and if he does that again, our bets may well be sunk without trace, but I note he has put in his best efforts when making all the running, and after being covered up at Cheltenham that may be the way forward. If he is allowed to bowel along at or near the head of affairs he may be able to get into a better rhythm, and if that is the case, he could yet gain his revenge in the 4.55pm.
The bumper (National Hunt Flat race) that rounds off the card at 5.30pm may well prove very informative over the years ahead, and I will be watching the market with plenty of interest. Grand Slam Slam is well-bred as a son of Blue Bresil related to plenty of winners and a 170,000 Euro purchase unraced and seems one to watch, along with Dee Capo who cost even more at 230,000 Euros, but I prefer to rely on what we have seen on the track, and that leads me to Brighterdaysahead, a winner on her only start to date when hacking up at Gowran Park, and as a filly, she gets weight from all her male rivals today. Add in jockey Harry Swan, the son of legendary jockey Charlie Swan and his ability to claim 5lb from the saddle and I can see a huge run here barring any newcomer being out of the top drawer.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Each way each and an each-way treble
Night And Day 2.35pm
Appreciate It 4.55pm
Brighterdaysahead 5.30pm
All at Fairyhouse Sunday
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