Just when you worry about where to start it all kicks off with what looks like some kind of row between Paddy Power (owned by Flutter) and the racecourses – though who knows what really goes on behind the scenes? One of the nation’s favourite bookmakers has decided to limit their BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) offers, bit not on a race by race basis as you might expect – but on a meeting by meeting basis instead. Rumour had it this was all something to do with a fallout with Arena and all their racecourses were expected to be BOG free from now on, but apparently that may not be the case – or it is well hidden if it is. Just what they expect to gain by this move is beyond my little brain at present – as far as I know the levy money is split according to the number of races etc so the tracks won’t lose any more than anyone else if the betting volumes drop, but racing itself could suffer with reduced income – are they trying to kill the golden goose? More will be published in the coming days (I know as I write the Racing Post are publishing something Wednesday afternoon), but this certainly doesn’t look like a good thing for punters who like the option of BOG when they can get it, though Ron will no doubt be telling me its all about the gambles going on each and every day, and PP looking to limit their prospective liabilities. Update: Flutter are now citing commercial concerns etc etc but I still get the feeling there is more to it than that.
Onwards with the silly season and what do you all think about the banning of a Coral advert – after just the TWO complaints? In brief, they showed people enjoying themselves (not allowed in 2022), the excitement of a horse race (as it should be), and they didn’t even portray anyone having a bet – yet apparently this encourages problem gamblers and has to be taken off air – give me strength. Joking aside (and to me, that is a joke) this may be the tip of the iceberg, and if booker adverts are to be banned in the near future as I suspect, what will racecourses do to replace the sponsored contests? As I write we are talking Wednesday afternoon (nothing special and not cherry picked) where we have three races sponsored by alcohol companies (I like a drink but I would wager a lot more people are killed by alcohol than gambling each year), three by the racing channels (will they still be allowed – I doubt it), and the entire evening card by Unibet. Make no mistake, this could well be a very slippery slope and at a time when the racing industry just doesn’t need any more problems.
Finishing on a lighter and brighter note, congratulations to the connections of Highfield Princess who won the Group One Arc prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville on Sunday afternoon, her first success at that level at the age of five. I have been told for many years by horse people (NOT racing folk) that we should not be racing two-year-olds at all as they are basically unformed babies, and others have told me a horse will not be physically at their peak for years after that. The daughter of Night Of Thunder looks a prime example as she has climbed her way up the ranks over the years with a rating of 57 in August 2020, 104 in August 2021, and 112 on her last start, an improvement of 55lb over the years in an almost continual upward curve (one blips for those who want to argue). Sadly the tail wags the dog (the breeding industry sees horses rushed off to stud before their time), but she will hopefully wake a few more owners up to the idea of keeping horses in training for a few years longer.
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Racing:
Friday
3.10pm Newbury
A Listed race for juvenile fillies over the Newbury five-furlongs starts our Friday afternoon, and a big field look all set to go to post looking for as share of the £77,500 total guaranteed prize fund. I am less convinced than some that the draw makes much difference here and will ignore that for now, though I do note that 23 of the last 25 winners came home in the first six on their last start, so I am going to ignore Miami Girl - one down, loads to go! Trainer Michael Bell has had five runners over the years, winning with two and placing with another, and that points me to the chances of Maylandsea who, coincidentally, is the highest rated runner here – and they all race at level weights. She has 10lb or more in hand on all of her rivals according to the handicapper, and was last seen weaking late on over a sixth furlong at Newmarket in the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes last month, and with the drop back in trip looking ideal, she ought to prove difficult to beat this afternoon.
6.00pm Cork
Three-year-olds have a good record here with five of the last 10 winners and I think we may get a good run out of Cigamia who drops back a furlong despite running on strongly to get up late over a mile at Killarney last month. She likes to race up with the pace and can pull too hard for her own good, so I am hoping that Billy Lee will let her have her own way dropping back to this trip, and as long as she doesn't don’t go off at a suicidal early pace, she may be able to pull them all along before quickening away when they come to mount a challenge.
7.40pm Cork
Tranquil Lady is a class act on her day with a seven-length sixth to Tuesday in the Epsom Oaks her standout run, but she was well-beaten over a mile and a quarter in the Pretty Polly Stakes and arrives with a poor win record of late. She does drop in class considerably and is hard to ignore but I am happy to oppose her with a small bet on Perotan here for the Aidan O’Brien yard. I have always been a firm believer that you never really know how good a horse is until they lose, and that hasn’t happened for the daughter of Churchill who won her maiden at Bellewstown over a mile and a half, and she followed up over a mile and three quarters in a Listed race at Down Royal. Stamina sems to be her strong suit and a decent early pace to attack from may suit her better than some, and there is no reason why she cannot continue to improve and if she does, she should go mighty close here as well.
Saturday
Newbury 1.55pm
A Listed contest over seven-furlongs kicks off our Saturday racing and if the five runners are anything to go by, it is going to be a disappointing weekend. I do accept Good to firm going and exceptionally hot weather is not ideal so maybe racings well-documented prize-money issues should not be blamed for once, and it does look a classy field, though hardly one to set the punters pulses racing in advance. Victory Dance has the best form on offer and the highest official rating after his head second to 2000 Guineas hopeful Isaac Shelby in the Group Two Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last month, but he did fail to keep a straight line that day which is of some concern. It may have been inexperience, but it may have been a disliking for the firmer ground and if that is the case he may not give his all this afternoon. I could be hopefully wrong but at the forecast prices I narrowly prefer a small bet on Ferrari Queen at a bigger price. She arrives unbeaten after two starts, strolling home on similar going at Doncaster first time out before making all to win at Kempton and although she is taking a big step up in class, she does get 5lb from the colts and may be the better value in a race where she may well get her own way at the front of affairs.
Newbury 2.30pm
Newbury is one of my favourite courses and the Geoffrey Freer one of my favourite races – though sadly that does not guarantee I can predict the winner! I am sorry but I cannot wear the argument that prize money is the sole reason for small fields when we only have five here, and the winner will pay for their training fess for an entire year and more (£39,697). Of the five set to line up only one of them has come home in front this year making life that bit more awkward for me. Not one of the trainers of the last 10 winners is represented, while Andrea Atzeni won this on Defoe in 2017 – and is the only winning jockey from the same period represented. Looking at recent form and official ratings it all seems to point to the chances of Zechariah from the Meade stable, with his head second when mugged on the line in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot the stand out piece of form. He did sweat up badly next time out before coming home fourth in the Group Three Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket and I can only hope that doesn’t happen again here, but he has proved he is up to this level, and gets a useful 7lb or more from his older rivals.
Newbury 3.00pm
Handicaps are a very different beast to other races as well know, and after finding some big priced winners in recent weeks (as well as plenty of losers), I will head back to the statistics to see what we can unearth. Once again the results simply do not back up the supposed low draw bias with three winners each from the four stall, six stall, 12 stall, 13 stall and 14 stall in the last 23 years – hardly a low draw bias then? No horse older than seven has won in the same period for what that is worth (one horse goes), and no winner has been rated higher than 95 (two more fall by the wayside). All last raced within the last 60 days (one more with a line though it) , and once we delete the non-qualifiers, it is time to look at trainer records for signs of any patterns. Clive Cox has won it twice and placed twice more from only six runners, William Haggas had had four runners for two wins and a place, and Mark Johnston has a two from five win record, and as only the Cox yard are represented this year, guess where my money is going? Dance Fever is yet to win this season, but he does have some solid placed form to his name with a third in the competitive World Pool Handicap over this trip at Glorious Goodwood when he failed to get a clear run at a crucial stage, and if he can negotiate a better passage in this much smaller field, I think he can run a huge race when you note that his last win was over this trip on this ground and off this mark at Leicester last year.
The Curragh 3.30pm
Despite the small field a high draw may still be of some advantage over the five furlongs here, and that leads me to the obvious chances of Badb who will be making her way out of the seven stall. We can ignore her last race when badly hampered at the start before making up the lost ground and unsurprisingly weakening, and the daughter of Footstepsinthesand is far better judged on her second in the Group Two Airlie Stud Stakes in June or her third to Little Big Bear in the Anglesey Stakes last month. Dropping back to five furlongs today I really hope they allow her to bowl along from the off and make the most of her draw, and if those are the tactics, I can see her beating likely favourite Mauiewowie this afternoon.
Newbury 3.35pm
The Hungerford Stakes is a Group Three to be run over the specialist distance of seven furlongs and common sense suggests we start with a look at any distance winners. Sadly that only rules out two of the 10 declared to run, but a closer look tells us that three and four-year-olds have dominated over the last 25 years with 19 winners between them so it may make sense to start there. William Haggas and Tom Marquand won this last year with Sacred and I wonder if they can repeat the trick with Tiber Flow who has a two out of two record over this trip, and a course win over a furlong shorter here in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes in May. He was only beaten four and a quarter lengths in the Group One Commonwealth Cup over six furlongs at Royal Ascot and should be a lot happier back in this class and over an extra furlong. Even more noteworthy, he wore first-time cheekpieces in Berkshire but they are conspicuous by their absence this afternoon, suggesting they saw him run below expectations, and if that is the case, he could prove tough to beat this afternoon in receipt of 9lb from Chindit, who may prove his biggest rival.
The Curragh 4.40pm
Joseph O’Brien won this Irish St Leger trial last year with Twilight Payment, breaking a run of seven consecutive victories for his father Aidan, who is back for more in 2022 with maiden Honeycomb who cannot be written off because of her connections, but does not have the form in the book yet to be a logical suggestion. Joseph O’Brien’s Raise You may well go off at the head of the market here after his second at Limerick but I will be taking a chance on Search For A Song who is the only C&D winner in the field. Now a six-year-old, she is yet to score this season but how many of these would get within three lengths of Kyprios (at Navan in April) or Stradivarius (at York in May) and although she was only seventh at Longchamp the same month, she has been given a rest since and will be back here refreshed and looking for a sixth career success.
Sean's Suggestions:
Badb 3.30pm The Curragh Saturday
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