It’s been a busy week personally and despite the usual mumbo jumbo of racing politics (some of which will be discussed in our weekly podcast, see below), there is enough racing and not enough time so I will be getting straight down to business this week so I can do every race I choose the justice it deserves. Naturally being English I have to start with a mention of the weather (it’s the done thing, don’t you know), and recent rain up and down the Country has been causing havoc with the fixture list as well as the plans of trainers owners and punters alike. Naturally we can all expect last minute going changes (sadly mid-meeting on occasion which gives us zero hope), and I would ask that you stake accordingly as I am forced to second guess the notoriously inaccurate weather forecasts.
Prestige Stakes 1.50pm Goodwood Saturday
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record here we go again, with just the six declared runners for this Group Three contest with the much sought after black type up for grabs and a prosperous future in the breeding paddocks in a season or two. Four of the six led their rivals home last time out so we are looking at a bunch of in-form contenders, but as they are all juveniles the going has to be an even bigger concern with so little form to go on. Pomelo certainly impressed on debut at Newbury over this trip when going clear without being given a tough race but that was on good going and conditions look likely to be very different here. Her half-sister Desirous was all at sea on her one run on heavy going which starts alarm bells ringing, though as a daughter of the great Dubawi it may not be the issue some seem to think. Prado went in to many a notebook when winning at odds of 12/1 for Charlie Hills and could well be the one to serve it up to the jolly with improvement pretty much assured, but as a daughter of Iffraaj I feel she may be less suited by the underfoot conditions and will row in with the favourite here.
March Stakes 3.00pm Goodwood Saturday
Rinse and repeat my earlier comments! Four runners (yes just the four) this time around, it’s as if the owners aren’t interested in a “measly” £25,000 for the winner in a race run in the memory of the great John Dunlop who I interviewed for the local paper what feels like a lifetime ago, and was one of the nicest people I have ever met in the world of horse racing. Cabaletta heads the betting for Roger Varian and jockey David Egan and has some decent form to her name, including a length success over Frankly Darling (now rated 108), and better still, that was on heavy ground. She did look a little one paced when a never nearer second of three to Enbihaar here over course and distance last time out at the beginning of the month, but she drops one class this afternoon and ought to prove hard to beat at these weights. On good ground I would be all over Subjectivist whose length and a half third to Mogul here in July followed by an eight length seventh to Pyledriver at York looks solid form, but he has to give weight to the selection which may be too much for this proven front runner who is expected to play catch me if you can in this small field.
Celebration Mile 3.35pm Goodwood Saturday
Once again it’s all about the going here as he classy Benbatl has his first start since a solid third to Maximum Security in the Saudi Cup when he picked up over £1,500,000 with the winner getting over £7,500,000 – if he is ever paid out of course after doping violations that have seen him move stables to Bob Baffert from Jason Servis. All tuned up for a tilt at the abandoned Dubai World Cup for Godolphin he has been rested since and I for one will be interested to see how fit he looks in the paddock before parting with any cash. His efforts on a softer surface do not make pretty reading with defeats on everything slower than good though he has so much in hand on the ratings here that he remains difficult to oppose. Regal Reality has won on soft ground though that was a Yarmouth maiden, and this is clearly a lot tougher than that, while Century Dream has won and placed on heavy as well suggesting it will be his class that is his undoing and not the ground. I doubt I even have a bet to be honest but if the cheekpieces invigorate Positive as connections hope he could be the dark horse here on the best of his two year old form, as well as a less than seven length fourth to Palace Pier who is a bit of a superstar and has franked the form in very positive fashion . If we had eight runners he would be my each way suggestion but as things stand it’s a watching brief for me in a race with far more questions than answers.
Winter Hills Stakes 3.15pm Windsor Saturday
Six runners say no more for this Group Three event won by Desert Encounter last year in an even smaller turn out. Trainer Andrew Balding last took this way back in 2012 with Lay Time and looks to have every chance of another success eight years later with Fox Chairman who is looking for his first win of the season. His two wins from seven starts have been on good to soft ground at Newbury first time out and in Listed class at the same track but over this trip of ten furlongs (on soft) which augurs well, and he comes out best in at the weights by four pounds according to the handicapper. Extra Elusive appears to be his nearest if not only rival and is improving rapidly with a comfortable win at Haydock last time out, and he has also won on soft, though I can’t quite work out why King Ottokar is as close to the selection in the betting. If a recent gelding operation improves him more than about eight pounds then I could well be looking very stupid if he flashes home in front, and with the ground very much in his favour, all things are possible.
Supreme Stakes 3.35pm Goodwood Sunday
When I first glanced at this on Thursday afternoon, we had nineteen declarations and they were betting 4/1 the field (D’bai for Charlie Appleby and William Buick), but we are now down to an embarrassing seven and we won’t be getting that sort of price about the market leader (11/4 as I write). His sixth to Space Blues here in late July has been made to look even better since with the winner taking the Group One Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville next time out from a very high class field and the fourth (Safe Voyage) hacking up last weekend and landing the bets for those who listened to the podcast for my colleague Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame. All his wins have been on good or softer going which is encouraging for his supporters and he certainly deserves his place at the head of the betting. Happy Power won well enough last time out but that was a Class Two Conditions Stakes on good to firm ground and he will find things very different here, and I wonder if there could be some each way value in Escobar at odds of 8/1 or so for the first two home? He won his only start on heavy ground at Ascot back in October last year when finishing two and a quarter lengths in front of Lord North (who is now rated 12 pounds his superior), and finished a length in front of D’bai here in July, though with the O’Meara stable failing to fire on all cylinders lately I will be having pennies each way more in hope than with any great confidence.
Something for the Weekend
Now and then I like to have a little look away from the bigger races (if only because they can be so difficult to fathom), and this week my eyes fell on the unraced Legal Attack. A few phone calls to my Newmarket colleagues confirmed he is working well if not excessively on the gallops of late and that they think the son of Shalaa is pretty decent. He is a half-brother to the useful Bogart (rated 110 at his peak) and Blaine (rated 107) who won plenty of races in long careers but more importantly, were decent juveniles and who both won first time out over this six furlong trip. He will need to be on his game here for the Crisfords with the likes of Fivethousandtoone expected to head the market but if he is as good as they think he is, then he could yet surprise them all in the 1.30pm a Newmarket Saturday afternoon.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/08/28/strepsil-sean-makes-it-from-start-to-finish-a-true-pro/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Fox Chairman 3.15pm Windsor Saturday
Legal Attack 1.30pm Newmarket Saturday
Escobar each way to small stakes 3.35pm Goodwood Sunday
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