I have been scrapping about for new items that caught my eye this week with the biggest debate I have noticed revolving around the decision to keep Stradivarius in training.
He will be eight next season and I am sorry to say, I do wonder if his glory years are now behind him, though if we have a dry summer for a change and he gets his ground, he does seem sure top add to the £3,198,246 he has already amassed for his lucky connections. What I see as sad is the lack of support for stamina within the breeding industry presumably stopping a few years at stud – speed is all that matters in 2021 and it seems a shame we won’t get to see his offspring on the track, either on the flat or (dare I say it), over hurdles.
Elsewhere I was impressed by the win if Luxembourg in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster – though I won’t be rushing out to take any of the 4/1 for the Epsom Derby, that’s for sure. I do have to wonder if the ante-post odds are little more than a marketing tool for the bookies these days as they get a regular television mention accordingly but really, 4/1 about a horse who may not train on, may not be the stable number one, may not be aimed at Epsom, may not stay the trip, and may not get the in one piece seems madness to me, with only those “in the know” likely to bet in advance – and they would already be on at far bigger prices no doubt.
Lastly, what do we all think about Gordon Elliott being back in the limelight after his six-month ban? Personally it is all a little raw for my liking with what I see as a “slap on the wrist” punishment where justice was seen to be done – but was it really? The yard didn’t close down (understandably, people’s livelihoods are at stake), horses ran under a different name, and now a very contrite Mr Elliott is back at the helm – yet all I can see is the smirk on his face while sitting on a dead horse, and I need a bit more convincing he has learned anything other than don’t let your staff bring a mobile phone to work.
Bored of reading – feel free to listen here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2021/10/28/stopped-in-their-prime-by-internet-issues-but-lots-to-work-with-this-weekend/
And on to the racing….
Friday
2.30pm Newmarket
End of season juvenile events have never been seen as an ideal betting medium to me but my self-imposed rules are to follow the better race so it is what it is. An unlucky for some 13 runners are listed to go to post for the Bosra Sham Stakes over the Newmarket six furlongs though Good to Soft ground may make it feel more like seven to some.
Desert Dreamer comfortably brings the best form to the table after her length third to Malavath in the Group Two Criterium de Maisons-Lafitte at Chantilly earlier in the month, keeping on at the one pace, but better still she already has a course and distance win from May, as well as one over a furlong shorter back in April. She has also proved she handles going with plenty of give in it, with the only negative I can see being a long hard season of nine races and seven months, and I just hope she has one last win in her for 2021. Benefit may be her biggest rival looking to preserve her unbeaten record after successes at Wolverhampton and then Leicester, but the value still lies with my selection, who would surely be a far shorter priced were she housed in a more fashionable stable.
Saturday
Newmarket 2.58pm
A Listed contest over the mile and restricted to fillies to start our day, and an interesting event that may stretch the stamina of some of these on the rain softened ground. Mark Johnston’s Five Starts looks likely to take them along from the start as she looks to keep her unbeaten record and she will not be easy to pass close home, but I was impressed with Charlie Appleby’s With The Moonlight at Wolverhampton, and if she handles the going she could be the one to be on. She cruised up from off the pace last time to win going away, and although upped in class considerably here, the daughter of Frankel looked the part and will be my selection here.
Newmarket 3.33pm
The second of three Listed contests and an interesting mile and a quarter event that had a much bigger and in my opinion better field at the early stage, which is a real shame. Of the five left, Bay Bridge may well make it four in a row after wins at Newcastle, Newbury, and York, as the son of New Bay has gradually stepped up in class. Last time out he took a Class Two handicap by half a length, leading close home on good to soft ground, and with Majestic Dawn likely to ensure a decent early pace for him to aim at, the race could well be run to suit him perfectly.
Newmarket 4.08pm
Zakouski is the standout here on form after winning a Group Two event at Meydan in February, but he finished lame that day and hasn’t bee seen in action since. If he is 95% ready to roll then he will take all the beating, but despite all the facilities available to the Appleby team, there is no substitute for a race to be spot on. Jadoomi has a similar profile (barring the known injury), with a good third in the Group One Criterium international at Saint-Cloud last October but he has been off for over a year, and the fact is, we have no idea if he has improved from two to three. Personally it looks a race best watched, but if I had a charity bet, I would consider a small each-way on Dante’s Pass. Unbeaten after two wins in lesser company, Joseph O’Brien sends him over from Ireland and must think he is better than we have seen so far, and as he has won on heavy ground, he could hit the places here at the very least.
Wetherby 1.55pm
With six of the seven runners making their seasonal debut we are forced in to taking a second guess about who is – or isn’t – as fit as they can get them with a long season ahead. Molly Olly Wishes is best in at the weights if you use official ratings as your guide, though all her wins have been over two and a half miles or more (give or take a few yards), and you have to wonder why they try two miles with her now. Miranda is a more obvious choice for Paul Nicholls and looks likely to prove hard to beat if she can recapture the level of form that saw her win at Doncaster in January, but I am going to have a punt on Zambella each way instead. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies thinks a lot of the six-year-old who won at Warwick and Leicester last season, and rounded off with a good second despite jumping right at Perth in April. She can go well fresh which is a bonus and with her yard in good form, she has a decent chance in a tricky race to try and call.
Wetherby 2.30pm
Paisley Park is the most obvious suggestion here and by far the likeliest winner too, but he is not getting any younger and has to give weight to all of this field which looks a big ask. On the bright side, he doesn’t have too many races most seasons, and is reportedly in good health at home, but at 13/8 I am less than 100% convinced, though I have to predict the winner and can’t really look elsewhere. Run For Oscar would be my each way alternative trying this trip for the first time following wins over shorter in lesser races at home in Ireland. If he stays he may have more to offer at the age of six, and is interesting if nothing else, though he won’t be carrying my cash until he has proven his stamina.
Wetherby 3.05pm
Cyrname won this last year before pulling up at Kempton and then Ascot and after a second wind operation since we last saw him, he may well do even better this season. When all is well he oozes class and if that is the case today, I cannot possibly oppose him, but he does have his issues as we can all see and I won’t be betting too much regardless. Talk form Ditcheat suggests he is in very rude health and I do expect home to win this and do so fairly easily, but close to evens about any horse who has to jump fences isn’t value where I come from, and I will find a better main bet for the weekend.
Down Royal 2.50pm
By the end of April we may look back at this race and note it had both the Gold Cup winner and the Grand National winner in the field, though that may just be my fertile imagination. Minella Indo made history in March when winning the 2021 Gold Cup under Rachel Blackmore and if he is fit enough here then he will take all the beating. Recent movements in the odds for this race suggest he is ready to roll despite being off for seven months, and if that is the case, he is impossible to oppose. Galvin looks his main rival and does have a fitness edge after a win at Punchestown earlier this month, making it six wins in a row for the seven-year-old, and he will certainly test the likely favourite, but he may be more stamina than speed, and even this three miles may not see him at his very best.
Down Royal 3.25pm
We won’t be getting rich with the Irish racing this afternoon, and Envoi Allen looks all set to go off at a very short price. Seen as the next big thing after winning his first three starts, the wheels soon fell off after he was moved to Henry de Bromhead from Gordon Elliott, falling in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham festival, and pulling up in the Champion Novice’s Chase at Punchestown when going lame. Hopefully all is well with the seven-year-old now, and fingers crossed he is the star they all hope, but I will only back him in any short priced accas.
Ascot 2.10pm
One handicap for those who like that sort of thing, and a chance for me to justify my subscription to a racing database that throws up all kinds of stats. In the late 10 runnings, nine have gone to five and six year olds so we lose a decent chunk of the field on that statistic alone. Next stop all winners carried ten stone four or more and all have been priced at 12/1 or shorter, and believe it or not, I am now left with only four potential winners. Soaring Glory is the obvious one but his 11/4 is based largely on a fourth in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle at Cheltenham, but he was beaten close to 28 lengths at the line and would have been fifth but for the last flight fall of Blue Lord. As a big fan of trainer Harry Fry I am hoping for a big run form the lightly raced Boothill who could be anything and gets in here off a mark of 135 after winning his only start over hurdles by a very easy 10 lengths at Taunton. There were and are numerous races they could have sent him to, suggesting they think he may be better than his current mark, and with the stable and jockey Sam Twiston-Davies both in great form, confidence will be running high that he can go close this afternoon.
Sean’s Selections:
Desert Dreamer 2.30pm Newmarket Friday
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