Short and sweet this week as I tidy up my latest books (available on Amazon please search for Trivass) and work on my Cheltenham special (which is going to be spectacular), as well as heading off to the World Pool Championships in Coventry from Thursday evening onwards – and there was me thinking I was semi-retired.
Anyway, the Irish don’t mess about do they, with trainer Ronan McNally hit with a massive eight-year-ban for multiple integrity breaches including concealed ownership. I’m not going to go into the details here but that is one serious ban, though I suspect he will appeal (I certainly would), though racing needs a strong hand on the rudder which the Irish certainly have, and hopefully that will put anyone else off trying more of the same.
Meanwhile, the Racing Post are going to town over affordability checks, and I received a phone call from them for my opinions earlier in the week – same-o same-o. There is now a concern, and perhaps rightly so, that as things stand the “once a year” punters who log in for the Cheltenham Festival looking to have a bet will get knocked back and asked to jump though hops to fund their accounts – the complete opposite of trying to help problem gamblers if you are halting those who only get involved in a seldom basis. I am hoping (nee confident) that affordability checks will not be as imposing once the White Paper is released (fingers crossed I am correct), and that can only be good for a sport partly funded by the levy which is based on bookmaker profits/turnover.
On to the racing:
Saturday
Sandown 12.35pm
I will be watching the market on this one for any signs of confidence behind Gary Moore’s French winner Stenatee ahead of his debut over hurdles, and he could be the one to chase home Chasing Fire this afternoon. The selection has won all four starts with a point-to-point, a bumper and twice over hurdles at Market Rasen by 16 lengths each time. He has to give weight away here which won’t make his life any easier, and this is a big step up in class, but you don’t know how good they are until they lose, and I will be following him until that happens and possibly afterwards as well.
Leopardstown 1.20pm
We really font know where we stand with the Irish horses compared to our own, but the connections of Weveallbeencaught think they have a class act on their hands and he may be a spot of value here. Seen as a potential Gold Cup horse in the years ahead, he won last time out at Cheltenham readily more than impressively, but the further he goes the better he should be, and in a competitive field, he has a chance of winning but should hopefully at least make the first three to land any each way bets.
Leopardstown 1.55pm
Not a race to bet in I’m sorry to say with Lossiemouth already trading at prohibitive odds. Willie Mullins has won this particular race four times in the last eight years and the four-year-old looks likely to take high rank this season with Cheltenham very much on the agenda. Wins at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown have been achieved with the minimum of fuss and I see no reason why his winning run will be stopped this afternoon with Paul Townend doing the steering.
Wetherby 2.10pm
Pass The Love On looks an interesting alternative here for trainer Alan King as the daughter of Passing Glance has her first start over hurdles after a promising second in a Ludlow bumper when she was last seen in December 2021. She has had wind surgery since to aid her breathing and is very much one for the future, though I still feel she could be the dark horse in this field, and possibly run in to a place.
Sandown 2.20pm
I appreciate the Gordon Elliott string have not exactly been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, but they send a sighter over for this novice chase ahead of Cheltenham in the shape of Gerri Colombe, unbeaten after six starts and looking for his hat-trick over fences. He hasn’t really made any errors at his fences so far at Fairyhouse and then Limerick, and as jumping sorts them out round this particular track more than most, that suggests he has an outstanding chance of yet another victory this afternoon.
Leopardstown 2.30pm
Five of the seven runners are trained by Willie Mullins which seems a bit ridiculous to me and who knows what the team tactics are, but there seems little doubt that Appreciate It is the stable number one and the likeliest winner. He was a machine over hurdles with four wins from five starts before being thrown in at the deep end on his return after a year off when seventh in the Champion Hurdle. He has switched to fences this year and won both after making all and coming home alone, and if he is the future Gold Cup hope they think he is, a win here barring a fall seems a necessity.
Sandown 2.55pm
22 years of statistics to work with for my obligatory once a weekend handicap that has served us pretty well recently, so here we go once again with all the facts from past runnings which I hope will repeat themselves this afternoon. All those who completed last time out came home in the first five (100%), all were aged nine or younger (100%), all were rated 117 or above (100%), none had raced in the last seven days (100%) none were priced bigger than 20/1 at the off (100%), all came from the first 10 in the betting (100%), and none had raced more than six times this season. Using those filters we lose five horses, and it is on to stage two. Only one carried more than 11 stone seven (95%), only one was officially rated higher than 142 (95%), only one hadn’t raced in the last 90 days (95%), and only one had raced more than five times this season (95%). Put that lot together and all we have left are seven.
Next we look at trainers and Philip Hobbs (three winners and three places from 11 runners), Paul Nicholls (four winners and two places from 16 runners), and Venetia Williams (two winners and two places from 14 runners ) are the only handlers to win this more than once, though no jockey still riding has managed to repeat a victory. They both have horses left on the shortlist (which for amusement purposes is Wilde About Oscar, Stellar Magic,Bothwell Bridge, Jet Of Magic, Coquelicot, Bells Of Peterboro and Schalke) so now its all about their past performances. I’m not 100% here but I can say that Wilde About Oscar has won off a mark of 146 in the past and is rated just 136 here, and with the Skelton team in good form, he will be carrying my each way pennies.
Leopardstown 3.05pm
Looks like the Willie Mullins show will continue here as Galopin Des Champs is already trading at three to one on which is not a price I want to take. He has won four of his five starts over fences and warrants favouritism here, but he did fall at Cheltenham last March which does send out alarm bells of a little concern. If he stands up he surely wins this, though Stattler will be doing what he can to draw any errors out of the jolly and looks the likeliest one for forecast purposes
Sean’s Suggestions
Chasing Fire 12.35pm Sandown
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