Much as I hate being the constant bearer of bad news (don’t shoot the messenger), we simply have to start this week with the (hardly a surprise) disqualification of Medina Spirit from the 2021 Kentucky Derby, and the never ending Bob Baffert story. Now I am not a vet or a scientist so I will not even attempt to go in to the detail of the drugs violation that has caused all this, but what I am at a loss over, is the two sides to the same story. Basically, my idiots understanding is that the horse tested positive for betamethasone, and I am fairly confident that is the only thing all sides agree on. In the bleu corner, racing authorities say it’s a banned substance, you lose – and issued a disqualification, 90 day ban from training, and a $7,500 fine – but in the red corner, Baffert’s attorneys are claiming that within the rules its fine to be used as an ointment, and that he hasn’t broken any rules. My issue is that surely only one of the sides can be correct, though I don’t claim to know who – if the rules allow it, why is Baffert being banned – but if they don’t, why is that the attorney’s basis of an appeal? Surely only one side can be right, and you would think the rules and regulations would make it clear enough which one that is.
On to the punting UK side and we are in that period where the racing is of an even poorer quality than normal as we all look forward to Cheltenham. Add in some horrendous weather in recent weeks that has seen meetings abandoned and tracks turned in to quagmires and it has been a bit of a waste of time all round with shock winners and frankly unrealistic going descriptions that make my life that much more difficult. As many of you will know I am not big on antepost betting and that is one good reason why – anyone reading this got a good idea of the going for the first race at Cheltenham next month – me neither. Betting on a horse months in advance to get a better price always seems like a great idea – but in reality said horse needs to a) go for the race you hoped, b) turn up in rude health with no issues along the way, and c) handle the ground come raceday, which is a total guess when you place your bet – not for me, but best of luck to all of you who have got involved bright and early.
With so much negative news in racing lately, I have decided to try to end each weeks waffle with something positive – if I can find a news story along those lines, that is. This week, my good news is all about Goshen, who looked back to near his best when winning the Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton with a game defeat of the classy Adagio. Personally, I doubt he ever reaches the heights once hoped but Gary Moore has been kind and patient in bringing him back to his best, and connections have been rewarded with two wins on the bounce now, and over £140,000 in career earnings, and he gets my gold star for performance of the week.
You can also read my thoughts on every day’s racing on the Daily Sport here https://dailysport.co.uk/category/sport/horse-racing/
Saturday
1.30pm Lingfield
With nothing worthy of more than a passing mention on Friday afternoon we head straight in to the weekend instead with a bit of all-weather racing from my local track at Lingfield. We start with a Listed sprint over the five furlongs, and I have to say I am pretty keen on Exalted Angel here. Karl Burke is a master of such races and the six-year-old is officially the best horse in this field off a rating of 104. Last time out he met plenty of trouble before running on in to sixth, but he should fare better in this small field, though Clifford lee will need to get him rolling nice and early to get up over the minimum trip.
2.05pm Lingfield
Lord North is the class act here and if he is even 90% ready to run, then he ought to prove far too good for all of these. That said, he has been off the track for 11 months since winning the Group One Dubai turf last March and there is a suspicion that this may be a prep race ahead of far bigger targets, but you can’t knock the form book and he is close to impossible to oppose – unless the market speaks otherwise come raceday, of course. Alenquer looks his biggest rival and William Haggas will have him spot on here, but class may yet tell and the Gosden beast ought to win this barring mishaps.
1.50pm Kempton
This may prove to be one of the more informative races of the day with the Milton Harris trained Knight Salute putting his unbeaten record on the line. He has the form in the book after beating Porticello last time out (an easy winner since), but his hurdling has looked a little suspect, and this may well be his biggest test yet. He is a best priced 16/1 for the Triumph Hurdle, yet Pleasant Man is only 20/1 for the same contest – and he is yet to jump a hurdle in public. Formerly with Roger Charlton, he was last seen winning a decent Class Two handicap at Yarmouth, and if he can transfer that ability to the winter game he could be well above average. The Nicholls yard appear to be coming back to form, albeit it slowly, and with rumours of some exhilarating schooling sessions at Ditcheat, he may have the edge on debut in receipt of 5lb from the likely favourite.
2.25pm Kempton
The Nicholls yard could be in for a decent day and Pic D’Orhy is not easily opposed here, but he has to give 12lb to Fantastic Lady thanks to her mares’ allowance and that may be a big ask. Nickey Henderson’s daughter of Network is related to some smart French chasers, and has won two of her three starts over fences with some ease. She jumped a lot better last time out at Bangor and although this is a big step up in class, she looks ready to take on better company and may yet outjump all of these to come home at the head of the pack.
3.00pm Kempton
I am a little wary that I will tip the wrong Nicholls horses this weekend and end up with egg on my face, but at the forecast prices I cannot resist a little each way on Iceo here. His stable were in woeful form when he came home a distant fourth in a very hot race at Cheltenham last month, giving himself precious little chance by refusing to settle and pulling far too hard early on. Back at Kempton, where he won his only other UK start by 17 lengths, connections will have worked on calming him down and may even try a different bit to deter him from pulling, and he looks a cracking bet for a place at least in receipt of 9lb form likely favourite Shallwehaveonemore.
3.15pm Newcastle
As you may have noted handicaps are not really my area of expertise but it is a bit of fun running through the stats to see what comes out in the wash. Four and a quarter miles await the 17 runners declared at the time of writing, with 26lb covering them all from top to bottom weight. In the 20 years of statistics I have to work with, the first thing I noted was that no horse has won this in that time who was rated over 140 – that immediately gets rid of Domaine De L’Isle, Eclair Surf, and Lakeview Lad – all of them strongly fancied (oops). My next stop was the betting, and 18 of the 20 were in the top nine, so risky as that seems, the stats tell me to put a line though Brave Eagle, Gwencily Berbas, Win My Wings, and Strong Economy. Next up we have age, and no horse over the age of 11 has taken this in two decades so bye-bye to Achilles and Potters Corner, who are both 12, and now I am left with a shortlist of eight. Lastly I had a good look at trainer form in this race and I now have it down to Checkitout (three places from six runners for Nigel Twiston-Davies), Rath An Luir (one winner from one runner for Rose Dobbin), and Court Master (a winner and a place from three runners for Michael Scudamore). Of the three, Nigel’s horses are perhaps running the best in the last two weeks, so after all that work, I will be covering the three (plus Irish raider History of Fashion) in silly forecasts and tricasts, and having a small each-way bet on Checkitout.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Iceo each way 3.00pm Kempton
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