I was sorely tempted to give this week a miss as I am busy with yet another book, but where else would I get the chance to tell you all about my Cheltenham Festival Special which I am more than a little proud of. It goes through every single race pointing out the facts about previous winners (ratings, weights, last time out position, and so on) in percentage order, and if it doesn’t trap the majority of winners I will be very surprised. Its available on Amazon here https://www.amazon.co.uk/Statmans-Cheltenham-Festival-Special-2023-ebook/dp/B0BTZCZMTM/ref=sr_1_4?crid=3032F08GG0XMP&keywords=trivass&qid=1676017797&s=books&sprefix=trivass%2Cstripbooks%2C98&sr=1-4 and is ana absolute bargain (but I would say that).
Meanwhile, the Chair of the BHA has come out and acknowledged that racing in the UK is under pressure and although we cannot pretend that would ever be a good thing to hear, the fact that those at the very top have stuck their heads out of the windows of their Ivory Towers and smelt the coffee has to be seen as a positive – and now is the time to act. All I can add on the record is that they are fully aware of the challenges ahead as are the rest of the racing industry, and that plans are afoot (and being worked on feverishly as I write) to provide a better and more competitive product that will hopefully appeal to the next generation who need to be tempted into the sport you and I both love.
I won’t bore you with any more news this week (books don’t write themselves – I wish they did), but we still have some racing to work on this weekend – though competitive is not the word in many cases, so it is a limited list I’m afraid.
On to the racing:
Saturday
Newbury 2.25pm
It is difficult to get too excited about Hitman despite his short price after the Nicholls trained seven-year-old was pulled up last time out when bleeding from the nose at Haydock, and he clearly has some issues. Given over a month off we have to assume the vets at Ditcheat have found and sorted the problem, in which case the drop in class here may we all he needs for a second victory of the season. I cannot pretend he is not the likeliest winner, nor can I suggest a bet under these circumstances, and a watching brief may be the most sensible option.
Warwick 2.40pm
Odds-on good things anyone? Just the four runners here and congratulations to those brave enough to take on Jonbon with whoever comes home last still picking up close to £3000, if only more owners and handlers felt the same way. If he jumps round cleanly then it would be the biggest shock for decades if the Henderson gelding is beaten here on what is expected to be little more than an exercise round for the Arkle favourite, who seems sure to cement his place at the head of the Cheltenham market with an easy success.
Newbury 3.00pm
Another small field, another odds-on shot and another race to watch – but not necessarily to bet in. Greaneteen has over a stone in hand of all his rivals according to the official ratings which makes him difficult to oppose, and he arrives here in great form after a win at Exeter and a second to Edwardstone at Sandown, and he doesn’t look up against anything like that calibre of opposition here. His rivals look too closely matched to even bother suggesting a forecast, so we move on to the other contests.
Warwick 3.13pm
It really is a shocking weekend for us punters with yet another decent race looking set to fall the way of an odd-on jolly – what can you do? Hullnback is forecast at 2/1 ON or worse after the six-year-old won comfortably enough last time out at Haydock, but he did make a mistake at the last and I don’t think he should be the price he is. At the odds I would be far happier with an each way bet on Byron Hill, rated 76 on the Flat and about to place at the very least at Fontwell before unseating Daryl Jacob two hurdles out. Likely to have learned from that experience, he is a much more realistic price than the favourite, and if he can be settled in behind, he will be finishing well here even though he may do better when stepped up in trip over the months ahead.
Newbury 3.35pm
Its handicap time so sit back (or read the conclusion) as I run through all the stats for the Betfair Hurdle to see if we can find the winner. Working with the last 24 runnings of this prestigious race, we find that all of the winners came home in the first nine last time out (100%), all of them carried 11 stone eight or less (100%), none of them had raced in the last seven days (100%), 23 of them had raced within the last 90 days (96%), 23 were priced at 33/1 or shorter (96%), 23 were aged five to seven (96%), 23 were rated 126 or above (96%), and 23 had raced at least once this season (96%). Put those in the mixer and from an original field of 18 (and using current prices as a guide), we lose exactly half of them – but that still leaves nine left to play with. I’m a big believer that if a stable is out of form it doesn’t really matter how well-handicapped the horse may be, so I am going to remove every horse whose trainer has an RTF (running to form) figure of lower than 50% - so three more fall by the wayside, and I am now down to a shortlist of six to pick form. Lastly, I will have a look at horses being asked to do no more than they have achieved before, and that leads me to either Tritotic, or Aucunrisque. The first named ran an absolute stinker when stone cold last at Cheltenham in January but cheekpieces are tried for the first time this afternoon, and he could sneak in to a place at a huge price if the headgear has the desired affect.
Naas 4.35pm
On a particularly tricky day, word reaches me that those closest to the Gordon Elliott stable think they have a decent bumper horse on their hands in the shape of the unraced Samui, who makes his long-awaited debut in the contest that closes the card. A well-bought son of Siyouni at just 32,000Gns, he is closely related to numerous winners, and has been found a race to start in lacking a Willie Mulins banker. Jamie Codd rides which suggests they think he has a chance, and if inexperience is not an issue, a big run us very much on the cards.
Sean’s Suggestions
Byron Hill each way 3.13pm Warwick
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