Shock horror scandal – I have actually found something positive to write this week as Fontwell have come up with their own attempt at a solution to small fields with a £300 travel allowance per horse. I now that isn’t a lot of money (per horse), and it only applies to the chasers, but if they have three such races on a card and attract three extra runners per race that will set them back £2700 so their efforts do need applauding and plenty of added publicity. Perhaps other tracks will (or could) follow their example and do something similar and we won’t spend each and every weekend bitching about silly fields for the races we all want to watch.
Good news is invariably followed by bad, and it was sad to see Milton Bradley passed away this week at the age of 88. He was an absolute master of his trade, taking horses from other yards and invariably improving them considerably, yet I have never heard a bad word spoken about him. The Tatling’s record may well be his lasting legacy, having bought him out of a claimer for £15000 and going on to win the Kings’ Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot and ending up with over £680,000 in win and place prize money. He will be sorely missed and I doubt we see his like again in my lifetime, but it was a pleasure to know him and he has passed on so much knowledge to so many people that his memory lives on.
Back to something more positive, and I am beginning to think that Paul Townend is finally getting some of the credit he deserves. One looks at the statistics will soon tell you he is one of if not the very best rider in Ireland, and although he does have the Mullins ammunition to fire, he is rapidly becoming as good as the legendary Ruby Walsh in my eyes. Anyone looking for an example only needs to watch his remarkable ride on Allegorie De Vassey last Sunday at Thurles where he defied gravity to stay on at the first fence before bringing her home 19 lengths clear to land odds of 1/8 on the day, but there is a lot more to him than that, and I am happy to follow him all season – though with the Mullins horses that does mean plenty of odds-on favourites.
Lastly, the pendulum swings once more, and I have to ask whether £100 fine from the BHA for a trainer failing to declare a gelding operation before a race is sufficient? Yes that fine can and does increase for repeat offenders, but we are all quite aware by now that gelding operations, wind ops etc can dramatically improve a horse’s performances, and a small fine may not be seen by punter as enough. This week saw Andrew Balding fined the minimum amount over Garrick Street and Ben Pauling fined £200 over Active Duty, and neither got to the front where it matters, but when they do win (especially if they have been supported in the market), it leaves a sour taste with the betting public and sees out sport viewed in a negative light and I do feel the figure was probably set when a ton was a lot of money.
Bored with reading – listen to all of this and more on the podcast here with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame… https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/01/27/eight-races-at-cheltenham-and-doncaster-dissected-plus-racing-topics-discussed/
On to the racing:
Saturday
Cheltenham 11.40am
You just have to love Cheltenham where you rarely get a bad race and the opener at 11.40pm looks as good an example as any other. Active Duty looks sure to have learned a lot from his debut third (over hurdles) at Ludlow, and he could be the surprise package in this field, while Gary Moore’s Jupiter Du Gite impressed with a 15 length Newbury romp on his British debut at Newbury, and as a 66/1 shot that day it seems fair to suggest there could be plenty of improvement to come. He may well prove the biggest danger to Scriptwriter, unbeaten over hurdles after victories at Sedgefield and then here at Cheltenham, and a head winner on the Flat at Wolverhampton last time out. Trainer Milton Harris reports him to be in rude health ahead of his latest assignment, and lest we forget, he was rated 102 on the Flat on his last start for Aidan O’Brien. Comfort Zone is trained by Joseph O’Brien and heads the early market after winning the Grade Two Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow last month but he would be rated more than a stone below my selection if there weren’t any hurdles, and if he can skip round cleanly, his speed may well be the deciding factor.
Cheltenham 12.10pm
Fire Dancer looks interesting but we have to assume he will improve for his first run following a wind op if we think he can carry an added 6lb from the handicapper for a head success at Ludlow, and although that may be the case, at 9/4 (as I write), that seems a bit of a risk to me. Stage Star has to give the jolly lumps of weight, but the Paul Nicholls trained seven-year-old impressed at Plumpton and deserves a shot in this better contest. A decent hurdler rated 143 at his perk, he has won two out of three starts over fences, the latest at long odds on when racing clear to win by 11 lengths in a two-horse race that proved very little. He needs to take another step forward here but has always been viewed as a chaser in the making, and if that is the case he may yet carry 12 stone around here and still be good enough to win.
Doncaster 1.35pm
It would be ridiculous to think any horse is a “good thing” where novice chasers are concerned, but Boothilllooks pretty close in this two mile event with Harry Fry’s eight-year-old getting better with every start. Wins at Newton Abbot and Ascot were followed by an eight length second to Jonbon at Sandown (and not many horses will get that close to the Arkle favourite), before another victory at Kempton when he stayed on strongly to win by a length at the line. I suspect he will be far better suited by this more testing track, and although he has to give 5lb or more to all his rivals, there will be some long faces at the Fry yard if he fails to follow up in this company.
Cheltenham 1.50pm
Its statistics time (I love them even if they don’t always work), for this two and a half mile handicap chase to be run on soft ground as things stand. Looking back through 24 years of facts in the hope they help find the winner for this year, and I note the following: No winners priced at bigger than 16/1 at the off (100%), no winner under the age of six (100%), no winner older than 11 (100%), no winners rated lower than 126 (100%), only one winner rated higher than 157 (96%), only one winner who raced in the last seven days (96%), only one winner who finished his or her last race and failed to finish in the first six home (95%), and only two winners who had not raced in the last 90 days (92%). Throw these facts in to the mix and using current prices (always a risk but what can you do), we are left with a not so short shortlist of nine horses – but we haven’t finished just yet. Fifteen horses have hit a top three spot here after last running in the New Years Day Handicap here and the only ones left on my list who qualify this season is Il Ridoto, fourth that day and carrying a pound less this afternoon. Next stop is trainer form in this contest, and that adds Guy to the mix (Nigel Twiston Davies has won this twice and placed with one other), and if I do have a bet, I may well dutch the pair of them, thought Il Ridoto is my first choice for the reasons stated above.
Cheltenham 2.25pm
If there is one race I won’t miss on Saturday afternoon this is it, though the fact that there are plenty of my favourite horses in the one contest makes it difficult to pick the winner. I cannot believe Ahoy Senor is as bad as he has looked so far this season, and he could well bounce back to his best soon, but there is not guaranteed today is the day, and others are preferred at present. Grand National winner Noble Yeats intrigues as he tries to prove he can mix it at level weights with the best of them, and he may prove to be the forecast bet to follow home Protektorat this afternoon. Dan Skelton reports the eight-year-old to be in good heart ahead of his return to action, and on his second start after wind-surgery which often sees an improved effort. He won last time out at Haydock when taking the Betfair Chase by 11 lengths in November, and even a repeat of that effort may prove more than enough to take this £67,000 contest.
Doncaster 2.40pm
Stay Away Fay did nothing wrong when winning on his hurdling debut at Newbury and coull be anything, but he seems plenty short enough in a competitive looking contest, and I will happily step in with an each way alternative in the shape of Idalko Bihoue, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. An easy winner at Worcester on his first start over hurdles, he was thrown in at the deep end in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury next time out when he was outpaced to come home a 15 length third. Upped in trip this afternoon which is expected to suit him admirably, and with the experience under his belt, he could or even should run in to a place at least, with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle and tasked with doing the steering.
Cheltenham 3.00pm
This is not a race I will be betting in with Paisley Park the clear form choice and a very short price as he looks to win this race for the fourth year in a row at the age of 11. Emma Lavelle’s gelding was back to his very best when winning last time out at Kempton in the rearranged Long Walk Hurdle, and at a track that should not have played to his strengths, and on that form he is by far the likeliest winner again today, but he can start slowly and become detached from the field, so do you really want to take 5/4 about him in case he repeats those antics?
Cheltenham 3.35pm
You really have to wonder why trainer Martin Brassil sends Doctor Brown Bear over from Ireland for this Grade Two contest which has been won by the likes of Yanworth and Santini in the past, after the five-year-old was last seen being beaten 21 lengths in a Limerick maiden on Boxing Day? On the form book he has zero chance of success but this is one shrewd yard, and I will be watching his efforts with interest, as should the authorities! I cannot pretend I think the 5/2 about Pembroke is anything like good value, but the Skelton horse has won two of his three starts over hurdles, and was mightily impressive last time out at Ludlow when pulling clear for a 16 length success. This is a much tougher assignment with five of his rivals also a winner last time out, but we do know he handles softer ground and on the clock, he may come out the best of these.
Sean’s Suggestions
Each-Way Double Scriptwriter 11.40pm Cheltenham and Idalko Bihoue 2.40pm Doncaster
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