Hong Kong International Races Preview 2024 - And A Little Bit Of UK Racing To Boot

The last stop of my World racing tour for 2024 is in Hong Kong this week, starting at Happy Valley on Wednesday evening, and culminating with four top class races from Sha Tin on Sunday afternoon – after which I have to fly to the airport to get my connections home.

Anyone who is ever naïve enough to doubt Hong Kong’s position at the top of the racing tree only needs to look at both those attracted to the occasion and the prize money on offer – top class and top dollar between them.

Wednesday night saw the International Jockeys’ Challenge, a four-race affair with points per position per race, and although it not a concept that has ever really taken off in the UK with the possible exception of the Shergar Cup, it is big news here with a huge crowd in attendance and a proper party atmosphere to boot. Picking winners in Hong Kong handicaps is best left to the experts (where is Tim Carrol when you need him), so you will be delighted to know I have given it a swerve for betting purposes, though the list of those taking part is a veritable  “who’s who” of the riding World, with Ryan Moore, William Buick, Hollie Doyle and Colin Keane the more familiar names to UK readers, alongside Mickael Barzalona, Rachel King, Yuga Kawada, while Zak Purton, James McDonald, Vincent Ho, Hugh Bowman,  and Karis Teetan are hardly there to make up the numbers – they genuinely have attracted the best jockeys in the World.

Having decided not to try and pick any winners, I did have a sneaky bet on Zac Purton to come out top jockey, but as with all these events, it was all about which horses they drew – and which stalls they came out of – well beyond my little brain.

As the evening unfolded, my primary objective was to assess any advantage held by the local riders ahead of making my picks for Sunday (with excuses to follow in the review), and having watched the four races go the way of Barzalona, McDonald, Hollie Doyle and Barzalona (again) to a) see the Frenchman crowned champion on the evening and b) witness overseas riders win three of the four contests, possibly a promising sign ahead of Sunday.

 And so, on to the Sunday races….

It will (hopefully) come as no shock that I will only be talking about the Group One contests – I would be lying to politician standards if I claimed I knew enough about any of the handicaps to even take a lucky guess.

Before I go any further, where I will (naturally) be heavily weighting my words (not necessarily my selections)  to include familiar challengers from Europe, I have to say that the Hong Kong Jockey Club have sent out an outstanding document with more details than you can shake the proverbial stick at – past winners, times, draw bias, contenders details – a 61 page tome that kept me out of mischief for hours, and something that could or even should be seen as a blueprint for racing the world over.

I have watched the horses working on track earlier than I would have liked, and spoken to trainers owners and jockeys alike, leaving no stone unturned as always looking to hunt down a winner – or four. As I have mentioned before (many times zzzz), I am not well enough informed to gauge too much from a gallop (other than a healthy coat and a willing attitude), but that doesn’t stop me listening to others and earwigging the odd conversation.

Japanese runner Jantar Bantar is certainly a bull of a horse and although he is up against the likes of fellow Japanese Soul Rush and Aussie raider Antino in the mile.

He could go well at a bigger price, while the travelling methods employed these days saw the Europeans look well enough with the days of a loss of condition and weight from the journey seemingly a thing of the past.  

After watching the barrier draw with interest (it is quite ceremony here and a major part of the overall process with our own Nick Luck as compere), in theory all the puzzle pieces were now in the box - and now I just have to try and see what the final picture is.

Longines Hong Kong Vase

European challengers (latest official rating after the name): Giavellotto 119 (Marco Botti), Luxembourg 119 (Aidan O’Brien) Dubai Honour 118 (William Haggas) Iresine 120 (Jean Paul Gauvin), Marquisat 115 (Andre Fabre), and Continuous 112 (Aidan O’Brien)

Draw bias:  interesting to see that 12 have placed from the one stall in the last 30 runnings, by far the highest place score – but that draw is yet to see a winner. The seven and four stalls top the winner’s charts with 6 and 5 respectively, though if you are good enough, you can win from any stall.    

Thoughts:

The betting in the UK as I write sees Without A Fight heads the market for Australia, and you can easily understand why after the 2023 Melbourne Cup winner returned after a year or so off the track with a solid third to superstar mare (and odds-on favourite) Villa Sistina in the Champions Stakes at Flemington where he was giving the mare 4lb.

It seems safe to assume he will improve for the run which will have put an edge on him, and although you can never guarantee any horse returning from injury will ever be the same beast, he did look as if he still had more to offer, though his draw in the one stall means he has to buck the trends to come home in front – though stats are there to be broken.

Looking at the Europeans and its tight between them all with Dubai Honour, who has plenty of course experience with three runs here (none of them successful), 15-time French raider Iresine (may find this going to quick for him to give his best), but its Luxembourg who intrigues.

Retired to stud and apparently heading back to the paddocks after this race, his best form sees four Group One wins and a short head second to Romantic Warrior in the Cup here last year and the step up in trip this time around potentially in his favour.

Sean’s suggestions:

Without A Fight to win

(Luxembourg each way for those looking for a bigger price).

Longines Hong Kong Sprint

European Challengers: (latest official rating after the name) Starlust 115 (Ralph Beckett).

Draw bias: 18 runnings have seen a placed horse come out of the two box an incredible 10 times (56%) which seems a statistic to note.  Three winners have exited the three stall, but other than that, we have a pretty even spread.

Thoughts:

One look at the draw statistics above and you would have to think California Spangle is worth serious consideration for a top three spot, and at 16/1 as I write that is a seriously tempting betting option, but in reality, this is all about the heavily odds-on Ka Ying Rising, who has the potential to go on to be world renowned superstar.

Only a baby in sprinting terms at the age of four, the New Zealand bred gelding smashed the course record over this trip here last time out despite being eased up close home as jockey Zac Purton saluted the crowd, beating the 2007 time set by local legend Sacred Kingdom.

The talk here is that he has not reached his full potential yet and that the world is his oyster, with every chance he will head to Australia to compete in The Everest, and we can but hope the UK powers that be make a successful attempt to lure him to Royal Ascot next June.  

Sean’s suggestions:

Not worth a bet at those prices, but Ka Ying Rising to win

(California Spangle each way to pennies for those looking for a bit of value).

Longines Hong Kong Mile

European Challengers: (latest official rating after the name) Docklands 115 (Harry Eustace), and Ramadan No Rating (James Ferguson).

Draw Bias: 25 runnings and a fifth of those have seen a horse pinging out of the five-stall placing – but without a winner so far. The nine stall sits one place behind but with three winners, and it will be interesting to see who gets that berth for 2024.

Thoughts:

There is no point in listing the draw bias if I don’t at least give it a further mention, and there is every reason to expect a decent run from both Voyage Bubble (stall five) and Taj Dragon (stall nine), in what looks a highly competitive renewal.

Japanese challenger Soul Rising heads the betting after his comfortable Grade One win at Kyoto (where Charyn was back in fifth, giving the form a decent look to it), and his fourth to Goden Sixty here in this race last year (Voyage Bubble in second).

He can go well and is not comfortably opposed, but I have been hearing nothing but good things about fellow Japanese Jantar Mantar who is available at 6/1 and will be my each way call. I don’t know too much about him to be honest other than he is lightly raced with just the six starts, four of them seeing victory – plus a second and a third.

Yet to lose over this trip and reminding better judges than me of the great Maurice (who won here three times from three attempts), he has been showing a good turn of foot when asked in his morning work and may be the one with the most improvement to come.  

Sean’s suggestions:

Jantar Mantar each way

Longines Hong Kong Cup

European Challengers: (latest official rating after the name) Spirit Dancer 119 (Richard Fahey), The Foxes 112 (Andrew Balding), Content 115 (Aidan O’Brien), and Wingspan 113 (also Aidan O’Brien).

Draw Bias: A low draw is seen as imperative here, yet we have seen winners come from the 12 stall three times so that may be a false premise? Gate seven tops the list with four winners in the 25 runnings, though stalls four, five, eight and 12 all have three victories each. Stall three has had nine places (same as two), but a couple of winners making life all the more intriguing.

Thoughts:

Stall three looks the sensible option for those who like to follow the statistics, and that points to the each way chances of Wingspan, the mount of Wayne Lordan and surprisingly shorter in the betting than Content, who will be ridden by Ryan Moore, who you would have thought had the choice of the two.

Romantic Warrior is the likeliest winner having won this last year, and with six victories in a row to his name including the Cox Plate in Australia in October last year, the Yasuda Kinen in Japan in June, and on his return to action in the Grade Two Jockey Club Cup here last month, when he took his prep race for this with ease.  

Once again we are talking odds-on, but he is by far the likeliest winner on his home turf, though I am very wary of Liberty Island.

The Japanese mare was second to Equinox in the 2023 Japan Cup which is clearly outstanding form, and became only the seventh ever winner of the Triple Tiara after taking the Oka So (Japanese 1000 Guineas), Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), and Shuka Sho. Rated officially only 1lb behind Romantic Warrior but in receipt of 4lb from the jolly here, we discount her at our peril.

Sean’s suggestions:

Romantic Warrior to win

Liberty Island each way

A little bit of UK coverage for anyone not willing to get up early Sunday morning…

Saturday.

Chepstow 1.02pm

I can’t pretend I wasn’t a touch disappointed with the 26-length defeat of Captain Bellamy on his hurdling bow at Exeter over further last month, but with hindsight that was his first start after wind surgery, his return after eight months off, and he was up against a race-fit winner. Entitled to weaken late on as he did, with the stables’ horses seemingly needing a run at that time, I am confident he will strip considerably fitter now, and if that assumption is correct, then the 1.02pm at Chepstow could be his for the taking.

Sandown 1.50pm

The phrase “a poor turnout” seems engraved in my vocabulary lately and that certainly applies here with a prize of £56,950 to the winner on Good to Soft going only attracting a miserly five runners – go figure. Historically, in the last 10 renewals Nicky Henderson, Gary Moore, Paul Nicholls, and Alan King have all won it twice, but Paul Nicholls in the only one represented in 2024 – so where have all the good horses gone? Rubauld is the one put forward by the Ditcheat handler for this season and with two wins over hurdles in October and then November, he has no fitness questions to answer. I have been looking forewarned to his debut over fences and although we have to take his jumping on trust, he would be the best of these over the smaller obstacles, rated 11lb superior to favourite L’Eau du Sud, 2lb superior to Touch Me Not, and 9lb superior to Soul icon. Of course, this is a new career entirely, but if he jumps as well as I have heard, then the 7/1 looks sorely tempting.

Aintree 2.07pm

Three and a quarter miles over the National fences for the Becher Chase make this race a spectacle, albeit a trick one to even try to solve. Looking back at the statistics (in brief you will be please to know), and no trainer has won it twice in the last decade with the exception of Robert Walford who took it in 2018 and 2019 with the long retired Walk In The Mill. Just the three winning favourites in that time (and one of those was 8/1), and winners at prices up to 25/1 including an 18/1 winner last year suggests to me all things are possible, though I did note that every one of the last nine winners had finished in the first seven home if they completed on their previous outing. Interestingly, early favourite King Turgeon needs to become the first six-year-old to win this since its inception back in 1992, so anyone taking the 4/1 on offer as I write knows they are betting against history, while an official rating of between 137 and 142 captured seven of the last nine winners and looks a good place to start. Add in eight of those nine winners raced between 16 and 60 days ago and we have a more workable shortlist of two – Arizona Cardinal and Cruz Control. Of that pair, Arizona Cardinal has won over these fences albeit over shorter in the Topham Chase last April which ticks a box, and although pulled up on his return at Chepstow in October, he has had wind surgery since, and he could be a different proposition this afternoon.

Aintree 2.42pm

Five winning favourites in the last 10 years and every one of them odds-on at the off, and sadly I suspect we will see the same thing here – or close to it. Liam Swagger has looked decent enough in his two starts over hurdles at Market Rasen and at this level at Wetherby, though he was all out to hold on by a neck last time out. I don’t think he is a world beater by any stretch, and I doubt we even see him at Cheltenham barring plenty of improvement, but he seems to have scared off the better opposition and may keep his unbeaten record, with the 11/10 on offer as I write surprisingly generous.

Sandown 3.00pm

One of those Saturday’s I am afraid with the best race of the day headed by the odds-on Jonbon who is by far the likeliest winner of the Tingle Creek Chase, named after a horse ridden at the time by my good friend Steve Smith-Eccles, who may well be working in the hospitality boxes this afternoon giving out the winners and a few risqué racing stories knowing him. It took me some time to decide between tipping the jolly or looking for an each way alternative, and in the end, I decided that I will stick with then favourite – but not as a suggested bet at 4/7 best price. Class over hurdles with four wins out of five and a second to Constitution Hill (no disgrace there), he has also taken 10 of his 12 starts over fences, including a comfortable win on his return at Cheltenham, and with a clear oud it is pretty difficult to envisage defeat here.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Captain Bellamy 1.02pm Chepstow

All photos with thanks to the Hong Kong Jockey Club