Well, I need to start this week with an apology for going “missing in action” last weekend without a word of warning. Truth is I moved to a new house in the middle of the week and was living in total chaos without a decent wi-fi signal – add the fact that 90% of the weekend racing was abandoned because of the weather and you missed out on precisely nothing, but I should still have been polite enough to post something up to let you know, so sorry about that.
Before we get down to the racing (and there is a lot to cover), a brief mention for “Holliegate” from a week plus ago when Ms Doyle suggested she was talked down to and struggled to get a word in edgeways when in the Stewards room. I wasn’t there so I can’t agree or disagree, but I can say that some I have met in the past from racings higher echelons are woefully out of touch with the 20th century (let alone the 21st), and the idea that they talk to jockeys as if they are servants is certainly not outside the realms of possibility. If racing is above board (and I believe that in general, it is), then why can’t Stewards Enquiries either a) invite in any on track media as I have witnessed when racing abroad and/or b) broadcast it live on course? I for one would find it of interest, and it would also mean nothing untoward can happen behind closed doors as it does now – just a thought?
Those of us of a certain age will remember the racing career of Pivotal, and the announcement of his retirement from stud duties this week brought back plenty of memories. Aged 28, he has had his fun I suppose, and although he did win the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes, he is far more renowned for his amazing stud successes. All the details can be found elsewhere but suffice to say he has sired an amazing 32 Group or Grade One winners, over trips from five to ten furlongs, and on all sorts of going. Better still, his genes will live on with his daughters already responsible as broodmares for 23 Group One winners though I confess I was surprised to see that his highest strike rate percentages as a sire are on good or good to firm going and not the softer surfaces I have always associated him with. As I always say, you learn something new every day…
Saturday Racing:
1.15pm Ascot
One of those races but only to be expected as we get decent solid form versus potential versus the great unknown. Midnight River is the highest rated runner here off a mark of 137, and a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 146 which is more than high enough to win this based on previous years. He has raced four times over hurdles so far, winning at Uttoxeter and Leicester and was beaten less than two lengths last time out when fourth to Adrimel at Warwick in what looked a pretty decent race. He will be a tough nut to crack here with his experience advantage, but we do need to be very wary of Nicky Henderson’s Gallyhill who arrives here unbeaten after a point top point at Kirkistown and a novice hurdle win at Newbury over an inadequate two miles. Bought for a ludicrous £450,000 after his point to point win, he holds a Ballymore entry for the Cheltenham festival and will need to win this to justify that entry but is held in very high regard at home in Lambourn and in receipt of three pounds from Midnight River, could well be the one they all have to beat. For the unknown, we have Alan King’s The Olympian, last seen winning over ten furlongs at Newmarket in a maiden in October 2018 and making his debut over hurdles after over two years off the track. Best watched today he ought to prove good enough to win a race or two, possibly in slightly lesser company and on quicker going.
1.50pm Ascot
A decent novice chase historically and won in the past by the likes of Black Corton, Mister Malarkey, and most recently Copperhead (the last pair for Colin Tizzard), though sadly that particular stable are not represented this season. Official ratings make this a straight fight between Sevarano, last seen finishing fourth over shorter at Newbury and trying this trip for the first time, and Kalooki, pulled up at Kempton on Boxing Day when last seen in action. Both made far too many mistakes for my liking last time out, talented as they are, and on this occasion I am hoping to see a bit more improvement from Hurricane Harvey, who seems the safer option. To be fair, he doesn’t look as if he has the pace of some of the others in this field, but he is a dour stayer when the chips are down as evidenced by a running on success over this trip at Doncaster last time out in December. Given plenty of time to get over those efforts, trainer Fergal O’Brien will be hoping he has even more to offer today, though be warned, this is one of the toughest races to call all weekend.
3.35pm Ascot
One very much in favour of those who like to bet near the head of the market with the last ten renewals seeing seven winning favourites and nothing bigger than Balder Succes at 4/1 in 2015. Sadly, five runners makes each way betting farcical but I was surprised to see last year’s winner Riders On the Storm trading at 25/1 this season despite only being a 3/1 shot twelve months ago. Nigel Twiston-Davies will have him spot on again this afternoon and he would be my idea of the one for the forecast, though I rather doubt he can beat Cyrname if he is back to his best that is. Paul Nicholls trains the nine-year-old whose age counts against him, but the ratings have him close to a stone clear of his rivals which makes him impossible to oppose. He won this in 2019 so we know the course and trip suit, and although pulled up in the King George on Boxing Day when running very flat, they add first time cheekpieces here which have apparently sharpened him up considerably at home. On the form of his better efforts that include the Charlie Hall Chase in 2019, he is the one they all have to beat, though whether you want to take the short price is your call in the circumstances.
2.05pm Haydock
For me, this is still not the race I hoped for as a Stayers Hurdle trial with the majority of the major protagonists for March missing from this line up. The fact that Itchy feet heads the market despite being better known as a chaser these days tells its own story, and good as he is (over fences), these are hurdles, and this is his first try at this sort of trip as well, making the 11/4 on offer a long way away from tempting to me. Main Fact looks interesting for the David Pipe team despite losing at Ascot last time when stepped up in class, and I may be tempted into a couple of quid on him in running on the exchanges as he is inclined to get detached before coming with a late rattle regardless, but I am happy enough suggesting an each way bet on Lisnagar Oscar at the current odds of 8/1 or bigger. The shock 50/1 winner of the Stayers Hurdle last year, he hasn’t looked the same horse in two runs this season but has had a wind operation after coming home seventh in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and is reportedly pleasing trainer Rebecca Curtis in his recent work. Obviously, he will improve again for this race, but at the prices that is a risk I will be taking, and if he is back to his Cheltenham form, he has every chance of a huge run this afternoon.
4.25pm Haydock
Six year olds have dominated this race over the years with eight of the last ten winners but with only one of that age group today (Tupelo Mississippi), we may well see that statistic kicked to one side. Mint Condition looks a major player here for Jennie Candlish after a rock solid neck second to Adrimel over shorter when running on strongly and looks sure to be suited by this step up in trip, while Alaphilippe has done precious little wrong, with wins at Ayr and Sedgefield before a close up second at Taunton, though all of them were over shorter and there is no guarantee he will get this trip. Young Buck is weighted to reverse Hereford form with Beatthebullet though the latter sports first-time cheekpieces just to muddy the waters even further, making this an ultra-competitive looking event, but one that should at least see supporters of Mint Condition (like me) get a good run for their money.
3.18pm Wincanton
Some very very good horses have won this in the past with Binocular the one that stands out for me, but this year it looks all about Gary More’s Goshen. Knowing Gary as I do, he won’t like the added media attention he will be getting here one little bit, but it comes with the territory as he looks to get the exciting five year old back on track. Running away with the Triumph Hurdle last Cheltenham before unseating at the last, big things were expected this season but his return saw him go out like a light back at Cheltenham when last to Song For Someone, after which a fibrillating heart was discovered post race. I am no doctor or vet to have any idea how easy that is to cure (if memory serves, Sprinter Sacre had a similar issue), but he wouldn’t be here if Gary did not feel he was over those issues. If he is as good as they think then he wins this, but he hasn’t been found a cakewalk to return in with at least two very serious rivals. Song For Someone is back in opposition and is a serios danger, though the heavy ground may not see him at his very best, while Navajo Pass is looking for his hat-trick after scoring at Musselburgh and then Haydock when seeing off Buveur D’Air to everyone’s surprise. He made all that day and proved impossible to pass, and with the same tactics expected he may be able to put Goshen’s stamina to the test, and it may be an intriguing tactical battle between the three with my vote today for the McCain horse, assuming Goshen will improve for the race.
Sunday Racing:
2.25pm Newbury
Sadly, Native River in not in the line-up this year as he has won three of the last four runnings, but he now has even bigger fish to fry and remains on target for the Cheltenham Gold Cup instead. When you add in the names of Silviniaco Conti, Coneygree, Long Run, and Clan Des Obeaux to the list of recent winners you realise the calibre needed to come home in front, and appreciate this race even more than usual in these strange times. Odds on backers will be delighted to see Clan Des Obeaux is back for more in 2021 for Paul Nicholls and at his best, he does look by far the likeliest winner again this season. His ability is there for all to see in the form book, but he did run a little flat in the King George and I might well take a chance on Lostintranslation instead. Admittedly he has not been seen at his best so far this season but then again, what Tizzard horse has, and after a distant third at Haydock before pulling up at Kempton, they have given him a wind operation. Always thought of as a Gold Cup winner in the Tizzard yard, he needs to start winning races like this to justify those lofty aspirations, and with the stable looking to be crawling their way out of the doldrums, he is at least a spot of value in difficult circumstances – unless you like to bet odds on, that is.
3.00pm Newbury
Two miles and half a furlong over fences here and I had to read that twice when I saw Champ in the line-up! Who would have thought a serious Gold Cup chance would be given his first outing of the season over this tip, but since when has Nicky Henderson ever followed the so called rules? He is undoubtedly a decent horse but surely something will have too much speed for him here on good to soft ground, and after close to a year off as well, I can’t be backing him today. Greaneteen follows him in the betting for Paul Nicholls and would give my Politologue Champion Chase hopes a boost is he wins, but I narrowly prefer the chances of Sceau Royale today. A consistent sort with wins this season at Ffos Las and Wincanton, he found the extra furlong and Cheltenham hill too much when fourth to song For Someone before falling at Kempton after Christmas at the fifth. Sensibly given plenty of time to recover form that he goes well fresh as we can all see and looks the best value on the tissue at odds of 3/1 of thereabouts, assuming a clear round, of course.
3.35pm Newbury
Time for our weekly obligatory handicap and as you all know by now, these are not my preferred betting mediums (even if my stats approach occasionally pays off). Running through those stats again, and no four year old has won this in the last 22 years, nor any horse over the age of nine, but as none of those run this year, that’s as much use as a chocolate fireguard. None have carried more than eleven stone eight (Gumball and Buzz), , none rated over 151 (Buzz), and only four outside of the first seven in the betting, so they look like a good place to start to me. Apply those rules and we are only left with eight (using the tissue), so as is my style (if I have any), I now like to look to see if any of them have won off their current marks – to which the answer is no. Guard Your Dreams is in the list and at 14/1 the biggest price of them all and as a five-year-old, he may well have more to offer for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team. Already the winner of three of his four races over hurdles he clearly has plenty of ability and seems equally at home on any ground, and off a mark just seven pounds higher than his last success, he may yet be one of the better handicapped in this line-up.
1.05pm Navan
No patterns here among the trainers in the last decade (OK, Willie Mullins won it twice but that’s not a pattern in my book), prices ranging from 4/6f to 50/1, and ages from six to ten as well – better stick to the old form book in that case. Odds on about Coko Beach by the look of it and we all know the dangers of betting odds on in a novice chase, but the six-year-old son of Cokoriko is difficult to bet against as he looks to better his hurdling form over the larger obstacles. A winner over fences at last at the fifth attempt at Gowran Park, he brings plenty of experience to the table compared to some and really looks to have been found a race he can win with the minimum of fuss. The one that intrigues is the Joseph O’Brien trained Miss Pernickety who has a mountain to climb at these weights – but is consistently campaigned in this sort of company and you have to wonder why? Pulled up last time (when I suggested her for the forecast) the guess is that she shows plenty at home, luring me in to another little forecast this afternoon that will almost certainly cost me money!
2.15pm Navan
Another restricted to mares but this time over hurdles with two miles five furlongs on heavy ground awaiting them. Curious Bride looks a likely improver after just the two starts and a win at Punchestown but she wasn’t all that on the flat to be honest and I would be surprised if something better isn’t sitting waiting for her in this field. Atlantic Fairy seems sure to prove popular with the punters with Rachel Blackmore in the saddle, but I was quite taken by the way La Chanteuse scored last time out at Down Royal and I am rather hoping for more of the same today. I accept this is a big step up in class on paper, but she ought to see the trip out better than some and at 6/1 if she even hits a place our each way bets will prove slightly profitable if nothing else. Global Equality is another who could get involved in the finish, but she is proving more frustrating than not and will hopefully have to settle for no more than a place once again.
2.47pm Navan
Same trip different horses next but a decent looking Grade Two albeit with a far smaller than hoped for field of just the eight runners. Fury Road is the obvious one to be on after a win at Punchestown and a good fourth over further at Leopardstown, and he ought to be far happier back at this trip. Going, and track look fine for the seven-year-old as well, and with the Gordon Elliott string starting to fire again, he ought to prove very hard to beat. Tiger Roll obviously the interesting one and he looks well in off his chasing mark, but this reduced trip over hurdles is surely not his forte and all we really ask for is that he comes home in one piece this afternoon. Of the rest, Darasso is certainly overpriced and could sneak in to a place at double figures, but I see no reason to oppose the jolly on this one occasion and will be backing him accordingly.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to Cheltenham podcast instead here
https://postracing.co.uk/2021/02/19/plenty-of-racing-plenty-of-opinions-and-hopefully-plenty-of-winners/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Monmiral 3.14pm Haydock Saturday
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