ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
STOP PRESS
Who knew when I started writing this that racing would shoot itself in the foot once more, both barrels, short range – and no toes left. For anyone lucky enough to be marooned on a desert isle for a month or so the story goes as follows: horse wins big race, horse loses big race, horse gets big race back again. Alphonse Le Grand came over from Ireland to take the Cesarewich pot back over the sea, but his jockey hit the horse too often in some eyes, which saw him thrown out. They have now appealed, and back in he goes – you just couldn’t make this up. Now I am no expert on the whip rule, but I do remember Kevin Blake saying at the time that one of the “strikes” counted hadn’t hit the horse – and so it turns out, but how come the original panel, looking at the same video in the same definition couldn’t count to 10 (or now 9) – and the appeal panel could? Unsurprisingly punters are pretty bemused by the whole thing - some collected on the winner on the day, some collected via a goodwill payment from the bookmakers if they backed the runner-up, but the whole thing leaves a nasty taste in the mouth and it may be time to get all bookmakers to remind their customers they ONLY pay first past the post – that could possibly be the way forward in the circumstances?
The obligatory mix of good and bad news once more for my final article before heading off to the Japan Cup, and I admit to being a bit excited to read that Windsor will (hopefully) bring back National Hunt racing for the first time since 1998 – where did all those years go? Not long now after some course amendments are completed with 15th December pencilled in for the return of the jumpers, and if the going is good enough, I suspect the card will be well-supported by trainers and racegoers alike. They are already taking bookings for both the 15th and the Berkshire Winter Millions Weekend in January is a date for your diary, with Ascot putting on the Clarence House Stakes on Saturday the 18th and Windsor following up with the £165,000 Fitzdares Fleur de Lys Chase on Sunday the 19th, hopefully I will see you at both tracks for what looks a great weekend of racing.
Almost a massive negative is next on the list with the Chelmsford incident on Saturday evening last week. You may have read all about it elsewhere (sadly for our sport in made the national news as does anything bad about horse racing these days, and nothing good), but in brief, the stalls are dragged off the course and moved around by a tractor – just like every racing jurisdiction I know of. The engine is switched off as the horses are loaded (skittish animals plus unusual noise and the fumes is not a good mix), but in this case, it failed to get into gear when they came to move the stalls off the track. I can only imagine the panic at the time (how long to we keep trying to start the engine, how quickly do we call off the race?), but the stalls were still there as the horses flew round the bend at speeds approaching 40 mph. We could have seen a very nasty accident where injury was pretty much guaranteed to horses and jockeys, but thanks to the starter Kieran O’Shea, hero of the hours, running down the track shouting and waving warnings, and flagmen successfully getting jockeys attention, they managed to pull up in time – thankfully. Thinking about the chances of a repeat incident (unlikely as I have never heard of one before), I am not really sure what they can do? A second (spare) tractor would be unlikely to get there in time, it looks physically impossible to leave enough space for the horses to go around the stalls (barring reducing field sizes dramatically and thus the number of stalls), and all I can think of is large unfurlable signs (if that isn’t a word, it should be) that can be dropped automatically for any major incident telling the jockeys to pull up as soon as possible, possibly dotted around the entire course so the jockeys can easily see them?
Lastly for today, Ron Robinson has insisted (so you can blame him for this one) that I come up with a horse to follow for the National Hunt season – not as easy as it sounds. If I offer up a handicapper, who is to say he or she won’t win by 20 lengths first time out, gets put up over a stone – and never wins again all season? If I nominate Constitution Hill, even if he wins four times, he will no doubt be odds-on for them all, and where is the fun in that? Sir Gino was a tempter with Nicky Henderson sending him over fences this year, but he won’t ever be a decent price either, so the dice were rolled, and I came up with Fergal O’Brien’s Dysart Enos, who coincidentally is down to run in the Greatwood Hurdle this Sunday on her return to action. A six-year-old daughter of Malinas, she has won all six starts under rules (second in a point-to-point on her debut), three each in bumpers and over hurdles, and I can tell you she is the apple of her trainer’s eye. A minor setback saw her miss Cheltenham and Aintree in March and April where she was thought to be as near as the stable could get to a festival banker, though they have not rushed her back which may be a long-term good thing. How fit she is for her return is guesswork for us all, but she oozes class and has been described by her trainer as the quickest he has ever trained – if she lives up to those aspirations and gets to the track a few times, we shood make a few quid off her if they keep her at an appropriate level.
And the podcast is here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/11/15/post-racing-podcast-15-11-24/
Saturday Racing
12.35pm Cheltenham
Ten runners for this Triumph Hurdle trial but with four of them unbeaten and three others winners, it’s not as easy to solve as I had hoped! Prairie Angel is worth a second look coming over from Ireland for Joseph O’Brien and getting her 7lb sex allowance, but she hasn’t really impressed me so far and my vote goes to East India Dock, trained by James Fanshawe to win twice on the Flat, and now in the hands of James Owen for his hurdling career. He impressed despite some novicey jumping when winning by four lengths at Wincanton last month, and certainly has the engine needed for the winter game. Whether we see him back here in March is less likely as he may be better suited by the current going, but while the ground is in his favour and with Sam Twiston-Davies back in the saddle, he has every chance of remaining unbeaten this afternoon.
1.58pm Navan
I can’t be the only one who has noticed the Willie Mullins team aren’t really out in force just yet, and with close to 30,000 Euros up for grabs here, I was surprised that he doesn’t have a single runner. That leaves the field clear for his rivals to make hay while the sun shines, and Gordon Elliott seems pretty keen with four of the eight runners hailing from his stable. Zanahiyr is the best of them in my eyes if he takes to a return to hurdles having been chasing for his last seven races stretching back to December 2023, but was rated 156 at his peak and is not to be ignored if the blinkers bring him back to his best. Bob Ollinger oozes class when they have him right, but he is fragile by jumping standards with just the 16 career starts at the age of nine, but he has looked his old self since being sent back over the smaller obstacles. Second in the Irish Champion Hurdle behind State Man and a nose second to Impaire Et Passe at Aintree, he deserves a ninth career win if they have him straight enough for his first start since April, and I may even have a little reverse forecast on the two named, just in case.
2.20pm Cheltenham
It is time for me to attack the stats for this competitive handicap chase to see if we can find the winner – sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t – but when it does, we have had some very big priced winners going through the process. First up, I am looking at the last 15 years (14 runnings) for clarity, and with no winners priced larger that 25/1 in that time, using current prices we can get rid of four straight away. Next stop, I note that any horse who completed last time out finished in the first seven home, losing another one, and that we have not had a winner who was pulled up on their previous start (losing two more), and now I have a not so short shortlist of eight, a pretty pleasing start in my eyes. We haven’t seen a winner older than nine so that rules out Janidil (a tough one that being trained by Willie Mullins for J P McManus), and none rated above 159 (bye-bye Protektorat), but we still need to go deeper. Of the six left, my next port of call is the trainer record in this race – let’s see where that road takes us. Paul Nicholls has won this three times and had seven other places from 32 runners, suggesting Ginny’s Destiny and Il Ridoto are not to be ignored, but Jamie Snowden has only had the four runners in the last 15 years – winning with G A Law in 2022 and back for more off a mark 13lb higher. Second on his return to action at Chepstow last month, which will put him spot on for this, he is still only an eight-year-old and looks all set for another rewarding campaign, and at 7/1 or thereabouts, he will be carrying a couple of my quid – each way, of course.
2.33pm Navan
With four of the six runners rated over 160, we have a class renewal on our hands, and a race won by Henry De Bromhead for the last three years, two of those with Captain Guinness in 2022 and 2023, and who is back for more this year. He is impossible to rule out for obvious reasons, as is Bambridge, lightly raced last year with two wins from three starts, and the highest rated runner in the line-up. He has won first time out for the last three seasons which makes him all the more interesting, making this a contest to savour, yet I am going for that man Mullins who has entered Gentleman De Mee. A less obvious form choice at first glance, he was beaten a length and a half by Captain Guinness in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March – but he meets that rival on 10lb better terms this afternoon. Admittedly he doesn’t win as often as I would like, but I get the feeling Willie and his team have spotted an opportunity (he will have to race at level weights on most of the big races he will compete in this season) and will have him cherry-ripe to win this valuable race.
3.15pm Newcastle
You can never guarantee anything on the all-weather, but one look at the official ratings suggests to me that this will go the way of either the Gosden’s lightly raced five-year-old Peace Man, or more likely the William Haggas trained Dubai Honour. Last seen at Ascot when well-beaten over a mile and a half in the Group One King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in July, his earlier form includes a nose second to Sir Busker in the Group Two York Stakes, and eight career wins, the best of those when taking the Ranvet Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in Australia in the spring of 2023, both Group Ones. He is no back number either, winning another Group One at Saint-Cloud in June this year, and after a bit of a break, presumably for a winter all-weather campaign, he should prove too good for all of these.
3.48pm Newcastle
I get told off by some for even mentioning official figures in my calculations, but it seems fair to think the might of the BHA have more staff working out a horse’s true ability than I can manage on my own, so why not use that to my advantage? If they have it right ahead of the Listed sprint here then it’s all over bar the shouting, and Annaf will win by a wide margin – if only life were so simple. Rated 4lb or more ahead of all of these rivals, and last seen he was ninth in the Champion Sprint at Ascot (Group One) in October and is entitled to find these easier to deal with. That said, 3/1 is a stinker of a price and not for me, and I am going to take an each way chance on Staincliff at a much bigger price (each way). Trained by Jack Channon, he has only had four starts, winning two of them, the first over this course and distance, and the second by over eight lengths over shorter at Windsor. He has been beaten since over five but back up in trip and sporting a tongue-tie for the first time (suggesting he may have had breathing issues at Beverley) he could be a very different animal.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Dubai Honour 3.15pm Newcastle
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