Just a little bit about the white paper this week and after the abuse died down after my article in the Racing Post where I could have chosen my words a little better (accepting that affordability checks are coming is NOT the same as agreeing with them), I have received some sensible e-mails that have certainly got the little grey cells working overtime. The main ones appear to come from the lucky few actually making a good living from their betting (how do they keep their accounts open?), with the recurring them asking what exactly is a loss when it comes to triggering affordability checks? At first glance that may seem glaringly obvious but maybe not when you consider many are working on making a small percentage from a large turnover via a combination of the bookies and the exchanges.
As an example, if I am clever enough to work out that a front runner (for example) will trade at a shorter price in running and I have £1000 win bet with Bookmaker A at 10/1 and then lay it to on the exchanges to guarantee a profit after a furlong – did I lose that money with the bookmaker even though the race brought me an overall profit? The second example for this week is when does it become your money? We all know we have to weave our way through a combination of losing and winning runs and that is part an parcel of the sport we love, but how will they see winnings in their calculations? If I win £1500 today, and then lose £1000 over the next few days, by following a system, for example, am I deemed to be £500 in profit as we would all think – or will someone decide that I COULD have withdrawn the £1500 if I wanted to, therefore it is my money, and therefore I lost the £1000 triggering the appropriate checks? Bottom line is, and the reason for even mentioning it, the white paper remains a grey paper for now and it is important that we keep on talking to the Gambling Commission to make these “nanny state” rules as simple, proportionate and simple, as possible – watch this space for updates, but in the meantime feel free to reach out with any other examples I may have missed?
Next stop has to be the Derby and Oaks trials from York this week and what do we think of the chances of Musidora winner Soul Sister and Dante winner The Foxes when it comes to Epsom? Although sent off at 18/1 I was pretty taken by the performance of the Gosden filly who ran all over her rivals at York but whether she will handle the cambers at Epsom is open to question in my book. 4/1 now is skinny enough on the back of one sublime performance even if I was impressed, and I am tempted to await ground conditions before nailing my colours to any particular mast. As for The Foxes, he will need to improve if he is to take a hand in the classic. Many (including me) felt he was lucky to hold off the late attentions of White Birch who was left with too much to do in my opinion, though there may be some improvement to come I suppose.
Fed up of reading – head here to listen to my views and those of Ron Robinson on the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/05/19/the-guineas-the-oaks-and-derby-trials-impressed/
Saturday racing
1.50pm Newbury
It looks like Charlie Appleby’s Noble Style will go off at a pretty short price here after his sixth in the 2000 Guineas where the soft going and pulling too hard too early saw him fail to see out the trip. He had won all three starts as a two-year-old including the Gimcrack at York over this trip and if he is to make up into a leading sprinter, then the drop to Listed class from Group One here ought to see him get back to winning ways, albeit at a shorter price than I would have hoped. Rabaah would be my idea of the each-way alternative after his front-running win at Wolverhampton and if he can transfer that to the turf this afternoon, he could hit a place at a much bigger price.
2.05pm Newmarket
Only seven runnings of this race to work with but all bar one winner has carried nine stone or more and only one came from a double figure draw, which is a starting point if nothing else even if it does only discount a frankly disappointing three of them! No point in pretending otherwise, I really do not like this race one iota, and if I have a bet myself it will be pennies, but I am covering the ITV7 this week so I have to make a selection albeit with my arm twisted behind my back! True Statesman won a couple of races last season at Chelmsford and Chester and has been gelded since a below expectations effort at Catterick, but if he has matured and strengthened as hoped, he races off 2lb lower here and drops in class which may well suit him admirably.
2.25pm Newbury
With a quarter of a century of results to work with I am hoping something comes out in the wash, and with only one winner priced at bigger than 8/1 it appears we can focus our attentions nearer to the head of the market. Age sadly tells us nothing of any use, though four-year-olds do hold the edge over their five-year-old rivals by the score of 14-6 (the other five were older, but they aren’t represented in 2023), and that’s where my useful statistics on the race come to an end. Looking at the trainers next and William Haggas has won this twice and placed once from just the four runners and he is the only trainer represented here who has taken this more than once, though Charlie Appleby has a 100% win record after Hawkbill won this in 2017, and he is responsible for short-priced favourite Yibir here. He has 7lb or more in hand over all of these on official ratings, and although I have stopped relying on “all things Appleby” in recent days after a few upsets, at 15/8 he actually looks reasonable value dropping in class after winning the Group Two Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket when last seen in July last year.
2.40pm Newmarket
A competitive handicap to go to work with next and one where the stats will hopefully give us some kind of a shortlist. Looking to stick a line through a few, we are yet to see a winner rated lower than 77, and only one finished outside the first eight home on their previous start – but that seems it I am sorry to say, so I will have to head back to the formbook and work for a living. With the majority of these taking a step up in class/leap of faith it may prove profitable to side with Washington Heights, second to Shaquille here on soft going last time out, but likely to be far better suited by the drying surface here. His sole win was on good to firm at Catterick last season, and with his conqueror last time entered up in Listed and Group One company, and the third sent off favourite on the day but another two lengths back (in receipt of 6lb), he looks a solid each way call at odds around the 8/1 mark.
3.00pm Newbury
A mile and a quarter next negating any potential draw bias, and a race where most things seem possible with winners up to 25/1 in the last 25 runnings. All bar one finished in the first six last time out, with 12 of them a winner, and all were officially rated between 78 and 95. The Johnston yard have won this three times and placed on another six occasions, and he is the only trainer represented this year to have won this more than once, suggesting Loyal Touch can go well at a very big price as he also fits both statistics and has the added benefit of a certain Frankie Dettori in the saddle. He has won over a mile but I have to admit that as a son of No Nay Never out of a Danehill Dancer mare this trip is not guaranteed, but he is related to winners over even further, so we can still have plenty of hope.
3.15pm Newmarket
Wall Game was as green as grass despite it being his third start when second at Wolverhampton, and connections clearly feel he is well handicapped off a mark of 77 to send him here as opposed to sticking with novices and maidens. He did run on well after getting the hang of things over this trip last time, and if that means the penny has dropped, we could see a really good effort at a double figure price this afternoon.
3.35pm Newbury
Sad to see French raider Tribalist already scratched but we will have a decent enough renewal of a race won by Palace Pier and Baeed in the last two years, though I doubt we have anything of that calibre in 2023 I am sorry to add. Four-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 renewals and 18 of the last 25, and they look likely to dominate once again according to the betting, with Modern Games heading the early markets, followed by Laurel and My Prospero. The Appleby beast is a bit of a globetrotter having won at Woodbine and Keeneland (Breeders’ Cup Mile), and he returned with an odds-on defeat back in Kentucky in mid-April. Interestingly, he was only a short-head in front of Jadoomi in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last October, when the third finished lame and was trying to give him 3lb. The Crisford’s gelding was on an upward curve last season and may have even more to offer this year, and although I would have been a lot happier if he had already raced in 2023, 8/1 looks the value call at these weights assuming he has fully recovered.
OMMS
Something for the weekend
Small stakes each way double: Wall Game 3.15pm Newmarket and Jadoomi 3.35pm Newbury
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