Ho Ho Ho and all that sort of thing with my last article before Christmas, and all I can say is may all your bets be winnings ones – and if you still want a stocking filler go to Amazon and order one of my books (search Trivass)! More importantly, make the most of your time with your loved ones and enjoy every minute – but don’t eat too much or you will end up like me and that’s not something I would wish on anyone!
Plenty to talk about this week starting with the mystery of the two winning posts at Sandown which are back in the news after young Ben Bromley picked up a 28 day ban after he stopped riding after thinking he had won only to find he was passed close home to be beaten a nose. Naturally this involved a bit of research and it turns out that he mistook the chase winning post for the hurdle winning post which was the cause of his downfall. Why have two you may well ask (I certainly did) and it turns out that it is something to do with enduring an equal distance from the last to the line thanks to the very different configuration of the chase course (no, I didn’t understand that either), and if you used the one post, there would be a scramble for the stands side which is the shorter racing line. Amusingly, I read all this from an article in March 2019 (coming up for four years ago), so we aren’t talking about anything new, though I also note they were going to look in to making it one post only – clearly things move very slowly in the World of horse racing, though that is little comfort to those on the worthy “winner” who did not collect at the end of the day.
Meanwhile, just like buses, we have not one but two high profile retirements this week, and how very different they are or were. Frankie Dettori has announced that 2023 will be his last season in the saddle and will go out in a blaze of glory, possibly at the Breeders’ Cup in Santa Anita, while Davy Russell rode the well-backed Liberty Dance to success at Thurles – and immediately walked away. I cannot say I have ever had the pleasure of meeting Davy myself, but he seems an honest hard-working jockey respected and loved in the weighing room and elsewhere, but a quiet thoughtful sort, whereas Frankie is – well, a one-off. I have met Frankie many times over the years with different results, the first bring at Brighton where he got beaten on a horse when I was spending the day with the owner (who I will not name) who promptly and very loudly shouted “you will never ride for me again you Italian *&^%”, but thankfully I was hidden away and suffered no long term recriminations. More recently I was helping with social media in Hong Kong and was introduced as “the producer” to explain my presence. He made me feel welcome, chatted for some time as if we were long lost friends ,and found me for another chat at an awards ceremony months later. All in all I found him to be a decent down to earth guy, but what do I think of him as a jockey? I always think that is a tough question because it depends on the calibre of horse you get to ride (did Frankel make Tom Queally look like a God or was it the other way around), and there is no doubt Frankie got more than his fair share of decent mounts – but on the other side of the same coin why did top owners and trainers want Frankie on board – certainly not because he was a bad jockey. One thing that is not in doubt is his popularity with the public – he has fallen from grace a few times (haven’t we all) but that has never really dented his appeal to the masses and although it impossible to quantify his worth to racing over the year, I am 100% confident the sport would be a far poorer place without him. Interestingly I have no idea who has the charisma to step into the void his departure will undoubtedly leave - possibly Oisin Murphy at a guess – though I wonder who is quaking in their boots at ITV racing as surely a pundits job is on the cards in a year or so’s time?
From jumps top Flat and back again and with Cheltenham less than three months away, how does everyone think things are shaping up? It is the best meeting of the year for most of us and of course I am looking forward to it, but the betting suggests it is all over bar the shouting in far too many contests. Looking at the odds this afternoon (Wednesday) and I can see seven horses quoted at 2/1 or shorter which seems ludicrous. I am all in favour of the top horses turning out and we all want to see the next superstar, but if you missed the boat and try getting on at those prices then you are a braver man than me. Of course they could all win, but there are challengers in every contest plus the little matter of hurdles, fences, and luck in running to deal with and I would rather wait until raceday before drawing my conclusions.
To end with for now, I wonder who was listening in to our podcast of a few weeks back when we berated the hotel prices for Cheltenham week when they go up astronomically, and suggested someone could offer a cheaper alternative to make themselves a few quid. Step forward StayLets and Cube Modular who are putting a glamping village together on the training pitch at Cheltenham Tigers where prices are from £950 for a five night stay in a twin “room” – not my idea of cheap, but far more sensibly priced than some of the local hotels. If you have ever been to the Festival, then you know that your day is spent at the races and your evening in the local hostelries and after that all you need is a bed for the night and some washing facilities, and although I may be too old to take advantage, I applaud anyone competing with those who currently think they have the monopoly.
Tired of reading – go to our podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/12/22/two-winning-posts-top-jocks-retiring-and-900-to-kip-in-a-container-for-four-nights/ where you will get my views AND those of Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame!
On to the racing:
Boxing Day
12.45am Kempton
It is only fair to add that we are a touch in the dark here as we need to podcast before the final decs are out thanks to the vagaries of Christmas, so please do no bet until raceday unless you can find a non-runner no bet bookmakers. I cannot say anything I haven’t said before here – six runners on Boxing Day at one of our best tracks for Grade One worth over £45,000 is frankly embarrassing. Champ is all set to head the market come race time but it hasn’t gone unnoticed that he may go best fresh and therein lies the issue. Although I tipped him and backed him before he scored at Newbury last month I cannot claim he was impressive in seeing off Paisley Park by a neck, with another stride or two likely to have seen a defeat. They meet at the same weights here so it could be close between the two once again, yet they are aged 10 now and it may be worth taking a risk on the six-year-old Goshen. Enigmatic would be the polite term for the son of Authorized who rarely runs two races the same, but trainer Gary Moore seems to think he may improve for his first try at this stamina sapping three miles, and if he does get the trip, he could be the new pretender looking to claim the Stayers crown, assuming he jumps round safely which is anything but guaranteed.
1.20pm Kempton
Another six-runner race despite £57,000 or so to the winner, but in this case it may be that McFabulous has frighted his rivals away. He didn’t look as if he would be all that over fences when pulled up at Wincanton in November but he showed that to be all wrong at Exeter and then at Newbury with easy wins, the latest when beating the high class Thyme Hill with ease. If he keeps improving at the rate he has so far then he will take all the stopping here, though I am wary of all of his rivals here in a race where I do not honestly feel he should be as short in the betting as he is.
1.55pm Kempton
There is no way I can back or suggest backing Constitution Hill at odds of 1/10 but there is no way I can oppose him either. I fully expect to be shot down in flames for daring to say this, and he may well prove to be the superstar we are all waiting for – but he hasn’t really done it on the track just yet (bear with me). Yes he strolled home in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last March at Cheltenham but as the name implies that was just a novice event, and although he stepped up to take the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, that was a small field and there is every chance that stable companion Epatante needed the run at the age of eight. This however does look like a true test of his abilities with I Like To Move It considered a genuine contender by Nigel Twiston-Davies, Champion hurdle winner Epatante now spot-on, and Knappers Hill on an upward curve, and if he does win this with ease then perhaps he really is the real deal as well suspect and hope.
2.30pm Kempton
The King George Boxing Day is as much a part of the British Christmas as turkey and mince pies to us racing fans, and we look all set for a treat once again this year. Looking at the statistics I have found that since 1997 we are yet to see a winner priced larger than 28/1 (last year’s winner Tornado Flyer funnily enough), none who finished outside the first five on their previous start (if they finished), and none aged younger than six or older than 11. Looking at current odds and recent form that removes all of TWO horse (Millers Bank and Ahoy Senor), but it is a start! Only two winners had not raced in the last 60 days meaning we can theoretically lose Royale Pagaille, and that is where statistics almost end. We do still have trainer form to work with, and Paul Nicholls has won this a staggering 12 times with eight others placing which is beyond amazing in a contest of this standard. If he had one runner I would be all-in, but sadly he has three, so we move off to jockey stats. Bryony Frost has won once and placed once from just the two rides, Harry Cobden has won once and placed three times from four rides, while Sam Twiston-Davies has exactly the same record - quite a conundrum. I could be hopelessly wrong but I cannot have favourite L’Homme Presse who I admit goes from strength to strength, but finished behind Ahoy Senor at Aintree in April, so at the odds I am most tempted by the Scottish raider who may yet bounce back to his best if he runs here (also declared at Wetherby). 33/1 is too big if he does, and if he doesn’t, Frodon is too big as well at odds of 16/1, and I will play one or the other each way at those prices.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Walk In The Storm 11.52am Wetherby and Ahoy Senor 2.30pm Kempton - two each way singles and an each way double to small stakes once the running plans are confirmed (i.e. raceday) or if you have a non-runner no bet bookmaker.
Yorumlar