Firstly, as I write this we are all looking forward to Christmas so I would like to wish you all, a very Happy Christmas, and I will do my best to make it a prosperous New Year as well! As I am tasked with preparing the sprouts and so on (I get all the best jobs), I won’t waste any of your time or mine on the usual small talk, and will get straight down to the racing – enjoy.
Boxing Day Racing
Kempton 1.20pm.
From the sublime to the ridiculous, no racing for a few days and then a mind-numbing ELEVEN meetings from the UK and Ireland on Boxing Day – no rest for the wicked. My first of three bets today runs in the 1.20pm, at Kempton when I like the each way chances of Tom Lacey’s Sebastopol. As things stands the market is headed by Bothwell Bridge and Danny Kirwan in that order, rated 131 and 130 respectively over hurdles, yet my selection was considered 8lb their superior over the smaller obstacles, and only gives them 3lb and 6lb respectively here. Second on his bow over fences at Cheltenham to Third Time Lucki, he was travelling better than anything when tipping up at the last here in November, but an added two furlongs here (he stayed three miles over hurdles) and a clear round will surely see him go close today?
1.55pm Kempton
Most certainly NOT a betting race for me, but one that still warrants a little discussion. Despite the four runners it looks a straight fight between Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame but no way will I be putting any cash on the outcome. I am a big fan of the Lucinda Russell yard and hope they have a true contender for all the top prizes in Ahoy Senor, but am I thinking with my head or my heart, I wonder. He does seem likely to get an easy lead here if he wants one, and if he is as good as they think, there is no reason why he cannot run them all ragged from the start, but he did unseat at Carlisle and has to iron out his jumping to go to the very top. Bravemansgame is unbeaten over fences but may not be able to get the early lead he likes and that may be what makes all the difference here.
2.30pm Kempton
Another race. I won’t be getting involved with financially I am sorry to say, though I would be surprised if Epatante wasn’t good enough to take this for the second time after scoring in 2019. She did dead-heat with Not So Sleepy in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle last time out, but may have more to offer after her first start since April. If she does not win here then sadly that may be evidence she is on the downgrade, and others may be willing to take the odds on to find out – but I am not I’m afraid, and will be keeping a watching brief.
2.45pm Wetherby
A second each-way bet (whatever next) and a bit of a risky one as Venetia Williams lets Fly Smart take his chance in the 2.45pm Wetherby on his first start for the yard. With no offence to either trainer, expecting her to improve an ex Willie Mullins horse may be going too far, but she may be able to lavish a little more individual attention on the son of Day Flight who cost his new connections just £8000 at the May sales. A bumper winner in France it seems fair to suggest he cost a pretty penny when bought by the Ricci’s, but he has filed to shoe anything in two starts since, and languishes off a mark of 115 this afternoon. The Williams stable are in red-hot form of late with is a bonus, and if his new surroundings and training regime can rekindle his better effort (a second at Auteuil on his hurdling debut), then he may yet be well handicapped at present.
3.05 Kempton
A third race at Kempton I won’t be betting in which suggests I may be going down with something, but when you can’t make up your mind, sitting back may well be the best thing to do. Trainer Paul Nicholls dominates this race in recent years, winning six of the last ten which is some statistic, and he has both 2029 winner Frodon (Bryony Frost) and 2018 and 2019 winner Clan Des Obeaux (Harry Coben) in this year’s line-up. Both should go well, but they aren’t alone with up and coming youngster Chantry House (a winner at Sandown last month making it five from six over fences), improving Mullins raider Asterion Forlonge, Gild Cup winner Minella Indo (class but will this track play to his strengths) and personal favourite Lostintranslation, always held in high regard by the Tizzards, and looking back to his best following a wind operation. It’s not a case of finding the winner here, it’s a case of trying to find reasons to rule any of them out, and that is where I begin to struggle. Reverting to stats (its what I do when the form doesn’t leap out at me), and I have 24 years of numbers to crunch. In no particular order, no horse won this who competed and finished outside the first four last time out (bye-bye Tornado Flyer), and more interestingly, 22 of the last 24 winners had raced within the last 60 days which rules out Clan Des Obeaux, Mister Fisher, and Saint Calvados. With the first four in the betting responsible for 20 of the 24 winners I reluctantly wave a fond farewell to Lostintranslation (at the current prices), and suddenly (and with precious little work), all I am left with are Minella Indo, Chantry House, and Frodon. All the money has been for Minella Indo in first-time cheekpieces here, and having watched his Cheltenham Gold Cup win a dozen times I don’t feel it was pure stamina that saw him home at Cheltenham, and he may well have a lot more speed than some give him credit for.
Lastly, and as a Christmas bonus (well it will be if they win), how about a short-priced treble to end today suggestions, and all of them running in Ireland for something a little different. Gerri Colombe is up against fourteen rivals in be opener at Down Royal on Boxing Day, but he has won all three starts so far, with a point-to-point at Lingstown and bumpers at Fairyhouse and Naas. Despite the numbers in opposition, he isn’t being too highly tried here and ought to win with a clear round to land leg number one. Sir Gerhard tries his luck over hurdles and if he can jump then his bumper form stands out here. Three wins form four starts include the Cheltenham bumper last March, and although third to Kilcruit in the Punchestown bumper in April, that form still stands out here. Lastly, the horse that I really wanted to back today is a Willie Mullins trained newcomer called Facile Vega who makes his racecourse bow in the bumper at 3.30pm. A son of Walk In The Park out of legendary mare Quevega he is reported to be way above average, and although his inexperience may count against him here, I’ll be honest and tell you I have backed him at 12/1 for the Champion bumper at Cheltenham next March as his price will shorten if he wins this as hoped.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Sebastopol each way 1.20pm Kempton
Win treble Gerri Colombe 12.13pm Down Royal, Sir Gerhard 12.35pm Leopardstown, Facile Vega 3.30pm Leopardstown.
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