ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Oh so quiet this week, as Bjork would say (google it if you are too young!) as I am heading off for a week in Spain to recharge the batteries – and drink a few beers in the sunshine too!
For that reason alone (call it laziness if you like) the chat aspect is severely truncated (got to find time to pack those Speedos), but I will spend the same hours and energy on the actual racing after plenty of winners last week, including my main bet.
I do have to at least mention the retirement from the saddle of Frannie Norton, who rode for an incredible 36 years and rode a career best 112 winners in 2018, and close to 2000 overall – not bad for a lightweight. Mainly associated with the Mark (and now Charlie) Johnston stable, he is going out on his own accord rather than being forced out by injury, and I can say he will be sorely missed by weighing room colleagues and punters alike as one of the old guard for those of us of a certain age.
My second and final story has been “stolen” by the Racing Post as I thought I was the only one who had spotted the excellent run of Shin Emperor in the Irish Champion Stakes where he put in what may yet be the best Arc trial. Racing over a mile and a quarter and up against a field of heavyweights including Auguste Rodin and Economics, the mile and a quarter was too short to see him at his best on all known Japanese form, and so it proved as he ran on late into third place. Add in a blocked run at a crucial stage and tender handling from the saddle, plus an odds-on defeat for Look De Vega and I can certainly see why he has jumped up the betting to third favourite, though why he is shorter in the betting than my antepost pick Al Riffa remains beyond me, barring a flurry of Japanese bets?
Saturday Racing
Newbury 1.30pm
A five furlong Group Three starts our day and in a race won by nine different trainers in the last 10 years, and with no winning favourite since 2018. Three-year-olds have won three of the last four runnings and may make me eat my words, but they look up against it this season, and I have been on the side of Annaf since the earliest declarations came out. Firstly, he is trained by the genius that is Mick Appleby, secondly he is dropped in class after an unlucky in running 15th in the Group One Betfair Sprint at Haydock, but more importantly, he is officially rated 114, 6lb clear of Adaay In Devon even after factoring in his rival’s age allowance. Entitled to improve for his first run since a victory in Saudi worth £945,000 to the winner in January, my only concern os the five furlongs here but if he can keep up early doors he may prove far too good for these.
Ayr 1.50pm
With only the one winner (14/1) priced at a double figure price in the last decade it may make sense to most to focus their attentions at the head of the market. The last eight winners had all finished in the first six last time out for what that is worth, and all of them were aged six or younger and rated 101 or above. I am hoping we will see another big-priced winner here as however hard I look, I cannot get away from the odds of Eydon. Formerly on the care of Roger Varian and off the track from Aperil 2022 to February this year, he reappeared for his first start for Andrew Balding with a last of six in the Group Three Winter Derby at Southwell, finishing slightly lame. If (and it is a big if) we assume he has recovered from that issue, we can look back and see a Listed Feilden Stakes win at Newmarket as a three-year-old and a far from disgraced four and a quarter length fourth in the 2000 Guineas won by Coroebus, and if they can get him back to anything near that level, then he would potentially prove far too good for these.
Ayr 3.00pm
A Group Three sprint over six furlongs restricted to fillies is next on our list, and where a high draw may be of some benefit. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this twice in the last four years and he has entered Guns Firing and Stormy Impact this year just to confuse us. Town And Country and Gram Marques challenge for Ireland and are hard to ignore, but I have a soft spot for Maw Lam and I will be going in again. The daughter of Acclamation owes me nothing after winning at 14/1 on her debut, and although not at her best last time out after getting upset in the stalls, she may be better judged on her Deauville third, beaten less than a length in Listed class in early August. This is a step up from that but she is speedy and she is class and if she gets a good run and behaves herself, a place may well come calling.
Newbury 3.15pm
Even I am not old enough to remember Mill Reef but in the race named after him, we have seen some high-class winners including Ribchester and Harry Angel to name but two. Clive Cox (33/1 shot Star Anthem here) and Roger Varian (no runner) have won two each in the last 10 years, though the first thing I noticed at the early declaration stage was that Aidan O’Brien was responsible for four of the original declarations, but has decided to give the race a miss after all. Defence Minister hasn’t reached his peak yet according to jockey James Doyle which makes him interesting here, while Shadow Of Light was second in the Gimcrack which is almost certainly the best form on offer, but can either of them lower the colours of Powerful Glory? Richard Fahey’s son of Cotai Glory may prove a bargain even at £190,000 at the April breeze-ups having won his maiden in devastating style at Pontefract by an eased down five and a half lengths having only needed to be pushed clear. This has been his target since and trainer Richard Fahey has made no secret of how highly he is regarded but this is, of course, the acid teat against far far better opposition.
Ayr 3.35pm
I must be mad to even consider the Ayr Gold Cup but I do like a challenge, and we have a chance here to use the statistics to see if they can help us find the winner (it has certainly worked many times in the past). Looking at the last 15 years (or 14 runnings) to see what I could find, and in no particular order, I can tell you that 13 winners were drawn higher than the seven stall, all came home in the first nine last time out, all were priced at 28/1 or shorter, and 13 were aged six or younger. Add in the fact that 13 were rated 97 or higher, none were rated above 110, all of them ran in the last 60 days and 13 had run at least four times this season, and we can start to cut down the massive number of horses we are looking at from 25 to seven - not ideal but it is a start! My next step is to see how the trainers have done in this competitive contest and of the (seven) runners left, the amusing thing (this has never happened before that I can remember), one is trained by the Gosdens ( two runners no places), one by Richard Fahey (44 runners one winner and seven places) – but two are handled by Michael Dods (13 runners two places) and two are with Karl Burke (five runners no places)– are they reading my stats I wonder lol? Next up I Iike to look at the handicap marks and in this case, none of my seven have won off a higher mark in the past with Korker the nearest having scored off 2lb lower in October 2023. Any further rain can only help his chances, but the facts don’t lie and at 25/1 or thereabouts, I will be risking a quid or two each way – just in case.
Gowran Park 4.01pm
Just the one from Ireland this week when Gowran Park put on a Group Three worth £33000 or so to the winner, and restricted to fillies aged three and above. Jessica Harrington has trained two of the last three winners and she runs Improvista in 2024, who was last seen winning by less than a length in a Clonmel maiden. She clearly needs to take a leap forward to get involved here and although she could do just that, preference has to be for Uluru, presumably the choice of jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle from the Joseph O’Brien six (exactly half of the early field). A three-year-old daughter of Zoffany (the horse, not the jockey), she thoroughly deserves a second career success having placed in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Prix De Pysche at Deauville, and most recent finishing finishing fifth to Tarawa in the Snow Fairy Stakes at The Curragh. She is no “good thing” here but has enough good form to suggest she can still go well, and if her jockey has made the right choice – so have we!
Sean’s Suggestion:
Eydon each way 1.50pm Ayr
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