Plenty to chat about as always this week, starting with the Grand National as you would expect. Yes I am going to brag about finding the winner (such a rarity, believe me), but more importantly, my statistical shortlist had the 20/1 runner up as well, so all in all, a good day at the office. Its not a race that interests me too much if I’m honest, with its extended distance and unique fences I can’t use it as a form bible to follow in any way, and as it comes close to the end of the season, we won’t be seeing too many if any of them again until next season. It was an interesting race to watch, and I do feel the winner was value for a lot more than the official margin after he got a bit lonely out in front and thought he has already done his job, but hats off to my old friend Peter Scudamore and trainer Lucinda Russell - two Grand National winners from a comparatively small yard merely proves just how good they are at their job.
Sadly, we also need to mention the protestors who did their best to stop the race, and I’m afraid it is not quite as clear-cut as some in racing would have you think. Although I do not condone their actions or their ignorance of racing in general, I hate to see any horse die in action for my pleasure and they do have a point. The problem we have is it isn’t just the Grand National where accidents happen as we all know, so if we were to stop the race, where does it all come to an end. All jumps racing at a guess, but will they stop there or will it move on to Flat racing, and the end of our sport as we know it – it’s a tricky one but racing needs to be aware of public opinion - its continuation appeared in a question on a YouGov survey this week and a colleague of mine was told the office sweepstake this year will be the last one – the tide is turning and we cannot just sit back and claim that’s the way it has always been.
I’m not sure if it’s good news or bad to see Davy Russell retire for a second time, but he deserves a mention and will still be sorely missed. A proper horseman, to retire, come back, and still ride two winners on the world stage of Aintree surely cements his place as an all-time great, and I am quietly confident he will be a success at whatever he turns his hand to next.
Fancy listening to my voice (are you mad) podcast link here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/04/21/the-grand-national-protestors-davy-russell-and-eight-winners-named-we-wish/
Saturday racing:
1.30pm Newbury
I am pretty hopeful we can start this afternoon off with a victory and if Hurricane Lane can repeat his recent sparkling gallops I feel there is only one winner. Charlie Appleby has his horses in great form lately, and the five-year-old starts off here on a planned itinerary that is intended to end up with another shot at the Arc in Paris. Obviously I will not be going overboard on his first start of the year, but I am confident he is in for a successful season and this is relatively low class contest compared to his future targets. Last year was a let-down compared to expectations with a third in the Hardwicke Stakes followed by an eighth in the Arc but if he is back on track as connections claim, he is difficult to go against in this field.
1.50pm Ayr
Much as I like the idea of a Novices’ Champion Chase here it does seem strange to put it on the week after Aintree, and it sems fair to suggest these are very very good horses – but not the cream of the crop. Generally speaking, southern yards have dominated here in recent years, and on this occasion that honour may fall to Nicky Henderson who is responsible for top-weight City Chief, the winner of two of this three starts over fences, at Hereford and Wetherby. He clearly has no issues with the stamina needed for this three-mile test, and although 12 stone is an anchor, I am hoping the decent ground expected Saturday will help him to cope. He is no good thing, this is a handicap after all, but his stable are ending the season in good form once again, and Nicky will know whether he has the constitution to shoulder the weight this afternoon.
2.05pm Newbury
Back in the good old days this was seen as a serious 1000 Guineas trial, though we haven’t seen one for some time now, and I doubt this year is any exception. Only to favourites have landed the odds in recent years, though the market has still been a reasonable guide with eight of the last 10 winners starting at a single figure price. Bridestones heads the early market for the Gosdens and I have to say, she quickened up nicely on similar going to win her only start at Yarmouth. It did catch my eye that same stable also allow the unbeaten Soul Sister to also take her chance, this time with Frankie Dettori in the saddle (William Buick rides the Godolphin filly) and as she also has soft ground form after her narrow victory at Doncaster, she looks an interesting each way alternative.
2.25pm Ayr
At the risk of sounding negative, I have never understood how the Scottish Champion Hurdle can be a handicap with the potential existing for horse A to be beaten a nose when giving lumps of weight to the winner – that makes very little sense to me I’m afraid. With weights ranging from nine stone 11 up to 11 stone six in the last 10 years it appears anything is possible, and the odds back that up, with a 25/1 winner in 2018, and a 3/1f successful in 2021. Colonel Mustard tops the betting at the early stage but his Kelso second doesn’t look unbeatable form to me and I prefer the chances of Rubaud. Paul Nicholls is ending the season with a bang, and there is every chance the five-year-old may have further improvement to come after just the six starts over hurdles, three of them successful, and including a win at Kempton in the Dovecote in February. He does need a career best off this mark but this anything but impossible, and at the current odds he seems the value call.
2.40pm Newbury
Time for a recognised 2000 Guineas trial next with the Greenham Stakes, though I have to add it is another race losing a little bit of its lustre in recent years, though Kingman did win it in 2014 and Barney Roy in 2017 to name just two stars of the turf. I have always wondered why that is, Newbury is a very fair track and starting off in a Group Three seems a very sensible route to Newmarket where the benefit of a run gives you a potential edge – yet modern thinking seems to think the best bet is to go straight to the Rowley mile without a run. Chaldean may prove an exception to that rule as he runs here for Andrew Balding, and on official ratings, he has 9lb or more in hand on all of his rivals. Priced as short as 11/2 for the 2000 Guineas he is the obvious one here, but I am a touch wary that his trainer will have left a little to work on at this stage. If you want to take the odds-on, I can’t blame you as his form in better races last year stands out in tis line-up, but I still have a doubt he will be fully tuned up. Looking for one at a better price to consider each-way and I give you Isaac Shelby, a winner on here on his debut which he followed with a success at Newmarket in the Superlative Stakes before a last of seven in the Dewhurst Stakes (won by Chaldean) where for whatever reason, he did not run his race. Brian Meehan thinks the world of the son of Night Of Thunder and has always seen him as a genuine 2000 Guineas contender, and at 14/1 or so this afternoon, I cannot resist the chances that he can bounce back to his best.
3.00pm Ayr
Two and a half miles plus is next up at Ayr, with the Future Champions Novice Chase, and once again a race where southern based runners have headed north for the rich pickings, and gone back home successful more often than not. Three winning favourites in a row give punters plenty of hope of landing the odds again here, and if that is the case again, then Balko Coastal may be the one to back. He is the highest rated in this field and the form of his second to Gerri Colombe at Sandown was franked when the winner went on to finish second to The Real Whacker in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham festival before winning at Aintree last weekend. We do have to forgive him a poor run at Cheltenham when last in the Turner Novices’ Chase but he didn’t seem to handle the tacky ground that day, and a quicker surface here may seem him back to his best.
3.15pm Newbury
A tricky one mile handicap is next on our list for the weekend, and as we have seen winners at odds all the way up to 16/1, and even an 8/1 co-favourite in 2014, it seems safe to suggest it is time to bore you to tears and break out the stats. I have 24 runnings to work with and quickly noted the following:
Only one winner was older than six, all carried between eight stone 11 and nine stone 11, and none were rated lower than 78 or higher than 105. All had run in the last 365 days, only one was rated higher than 100, all bar one came from the first 10 in the betting, and only one winner had raced more than once this season. Using those I now have a shortlist of Atrium, Jimi Hendrix, Lattam, and Galiac, and of those four, Lattam represents the stable in the best form. His win at The Curragh last month was landed despite traffic problems and exaggerated waiting tactics, and in this smaller field he can hopefully still get plenty of early over, but avoid any similar issues.
3.35pm Ayr
Just in case we have any betting money left after the other races, we round things off with the four-mile Scottish Grand National, a tricky handicap won last year by 13/2 co-favourite Win My Wings, who followed winners at odds of 12/1, 40/1, 25/1, 14/1, 9/1 joint favourite, 33/1, 25/1, and 8/1 in the last 10 years, pretty conclusive evidence that this will not be easy to solve. I reverted to type and went through all the stats I could find but that only got rid of 10 of the 23 runners, leaving me with a long shortlist of 13 to go through, so not much use at all, though I will focus my attentions on them regardless. I would love to see Your Own Story win for Lucinda Russell to give the stable a National double after last week, but at 8/1, he looks too short to me, and I will go for Famous Bridge, a lightly raced seven-year-old looking for his hat-trick after wins at Wetherby, and the mount of Brian Hughes, who has ridden him numerous times and will know whether he is likely to see out this four miles – or not. At 20/1 he has a sporting chance, but the reality is this is a tough race to call and if I do have a bet, it will be to pennies.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Bridestones 2.05pm Newbury
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