ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
No podcast this seek so I am let loose on my own (pretty dangerous) covering my own subjects – the lunatic has taken over the asylum!
Unsurprisingly the Grand National at Aintree has to take centre stage but before then, and only for those interested in making a profit from their betting, I have TWO new books out on Amazon here and here – one covers all-weather racing (and is showing over 200 points of profit in a year) and the other covers when to back Beaten Favourites – and why. Both are very affordable (I’m a nice guy), so if you fancy it, give them a try (and help fund my racing trips abroad or at least buy a beer).
Horses will follow shortly, but have you see the Twitter storm regarding so called Open Banking? Some bookmakers appear to have jumped the gun (yet again) and are asking would-be customers to sign up to Open Banking – despite not being required to do so by the Gambling Commission. Now I am NOT an expert on the subject, BUT why would anyone want or need to give out all their details to either the bookmakers or the Open Banking companies when they don’t have to, aren’t required to – and most importantly, can’t trust the companies involved? One of them has a limit of liability for lost data of £10,000 – if they are that clear their serves etc are secure why would they limit to such a small sum – where is their own confidence? In my understanding Open Banking is for anti money laundering reasons – so why are punters being asked before they can deposit a couple of hundred quid, surely the figures should be much higher? Personally I have nothing to hide BUT I would not even consider giving my life away to any company just to have a bet – there is no evidence why it is needed, or that it will be anywhere near to 100% secure – not for me and I seriously advise you all to at least think twice before selling your soul to the devil.
On to the Grand National next, and a race that is the bane of my life! I won’t pretend I always give out the winner of the 2000 Guineas, or The Epsom Derby etc, but they are level weights contests run over distances familiar to us all, and I’ll admit I will always fancy my chances. Does anyone ask me for the winners of those races – a few do – but nothing in comparison to the Grand National with the phrase “you must know the winner” well used. Yep, I can’t guaranteed to find the winner of a mile race at level weights on the Flat – but a four mile two and a half furlong race over jumps that are rarely faced in a horses career in a larger than normal field, and at the end of a long hard season, well that should be bread and butter – nope! Once the horses flash past the line (or crawl if the rains keep falling) there is every chance we will see the best horse did NOT win – if the third is beaten 10 lengths but is giving a stone to the winner surely he or she is the best horse – but to be forgotten in racing history? That will not stop me trying (if I didn’t feel I had to pick a horse I would happily leave the race alone), and my selection and explanation is below), but in reality – stick a pin in your newspaper of choice, you have just as much chance as I do in a lottery of a contest, even with the higher class runners we have been seeing in recent years. More importantly, we all need to pray the horses come back unharmed, racing is under attack from all sides, jumps racing especially, and the last thing the sport needs is any ammunition for the so-called do-gooders.
Saturday Racing:
1.55pm Aintree
Two and a half miles over hurdles with over £56,000 to the winner has attracted a decent field, though many are yet to try this extended trip and if the ground is as soft as expected, some will not get home in a truly run contest. Six winning jollys in the last 10 renewals is encouraging for favourite backers, with the current score 6-4 to the UK versus their Irish challengers. Betterdaysahead tops the early markets for Gordon Elliott and I have to admit, she left me with burnt fingers when finishing second in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival where the weight of my money proved too much for her! She steps up in trip this afternoon and takes on her male counterparts in receipt of 7lb from them today, and with plenty of stamina in her pedigree, I am hoping the added half mile will bring about the required improvement.
3.05pm Aintree
Some familiar faces are all set to go to post for the three-mile Liverpool hurdle, but who will come out on top in 2024? 6-4 again to the Brits, but Gordon Elliott has won the last two renewals with Sire Du Berlais (16/1 and 8/1), and with the ages of recent winners from six to 11, where do we start? The hat-trick could be on for the now 12 year old, but he is held on Cheltenham form by Flooring Porter, second to Teahupoo in the Stayers Hurdle and the clear form pick. He is hard to ignore but my ante-post suggestion for the same race was Monkfish (each way), and I was distraught when connections sent him back over fences for the Gold Cup instead. A class act in years past over hurdles he has won four of his six starts over fences but has never looked as comfortable, and a return to hurdles may see him rekindle his best form. Rated 164 over the larger obstacles and with the potential to match that over hurdles, he has a better chance here than his odds imply and will carry a small each way bet from me today.
4.00pm Aintree
The big one -The Grand National, more than four and a quarter miles over unusual fences on soft ground – this may well be a war of attrition and there is every chance we see a surprise. Corach Rambler is a very worthy favourite and the 20293 winner is due to go up three pounds for future contests, suggesting he is well in at the weights. We know he handles track and trip and I would love him to win this for Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore, but he scored by just over two lengths last year – and is running off 13lb higher now suggesting this may be a big ask for the Cheltenham Gold Cup third. At 11/2 he should not be ignored for a saving bet. Vanillier is weighted to get the better of him on last year’s form (9lb better off for a couple of lengths) and is another to consider, but Meetingofthewaters is very narrowly preferred. Trained by that man Willie Mullins, his jumping can let him down now and then (gulp), but he looks the ideal sort for the race, where the front-runners can go off too fast, leaving the way clear for a hold up horse. Last seen running on into third in the three mile one furlong Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, he was only put up 2lb for that which seems pretty generous but still races off his old mark now, and if he gets round in once piece, at 9/1 he will be my each way suggestion.
5.00pm Aintree
Very few of this season’s novice chasers have stood out to me (worryingly for 2025), but this has been won by Shishkin, Gentleman De Mee, and Jonbon in the last three years, so I wonder if any of these will live up to their levels. Six and seven year-olds have won nine of the last 10 renewals, and at first glance I liked the look of both Hercule De Seuil and Etalon, but they both like to make the running, and I wonder if they could set this up for one racing from off the pace? Found a Fifty is the obvious one after his excellent second to Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle Trophy but he also likes to ace prominently and I will take a chance on Quilixios (each way) once more. A distant third in the Arkle, Henry De Bromhead seems happy enough to let him take on those in front of him once more here, and if he can get his jumping together he is a dark horse to at least consider.
5.35pm Aintree
I am not as convinced as some that there are any world-beaters in this line up with the majority of those who took part in the Cheltenham bumper sadly missing as we wait to test out the true value of the Festival form. I would not put anyone off backing current favourite Mister Meggit who had little more than an exercise canter to make it two from two at Doncaster and although this looks a far deeper contest, he may prove above average in the long run. He may make me look stupid by winning this with ease, but at 9/4 there is precious little value and I will risk Sorceleur (each way) as my alternative at a double figure price. Trainer Pail Nicholls has plenty of depth to his bumper team at present yet from an embarrassment of riches, he relies on the son of Saint Des Saints to bring home the bacon. Third on his first two starts at Exeter and Cheltenham when held up, he was allowed to bowl along last time out at Taiunton when quickening up late on to win by 15 lengths, and if he can slip this field early doors, who is to say he cannot repeat that here.
Yarmouth
I cannot resist one small bet on the Flat (it is the Flat season after all in case anyone has forgotten), and as Yarmouth is known as Newmarket by the Sea for obvious reasons, that leads me to the chances of No Retreatdespite an intriguing field that includes well-bred newcomer Inner Peace and Kempton second Fighter Command. One makes his racecourse bow and the other has his first start since early December, which may give the fitness edge to Roger Varian’s son of Siyouni who cost an incredible 1.2 million Euros at the breeze-up sales last year. Debuting at Newcastle in February, he was worried out of things close home over the mile to finish third, beaten a nose and a neck at the line, the two who finished in front of him both arrived with racecourse experience which I feel may have made the difference. He will be wiser here which may be all he needs, assuming he stays the added two furlongs, of course.
Sean’s Suggestions:
No Retreat 4.25pm Yarmouth
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