As always in the big wide world of horse racing, there is always something to talk about but this week we will start with something just a little different and a look at weight for age handicaps. As things stand the three-year-olds get weight from their older rivals in most all-age handicaps but the results suggest this gives them the edge, and when you add that to the idea that many of them are still improving (and thus potentially well in at the weights), you can certainly argue a strong case that their allowance could or even should be done away with. A quick look at the stats for the last two years showed me that they win out of all proportion to their attendance, though I have to admit that I will be attempting to use those facts to my advantage until the powers that be in their Ivory Towers do something about it!
Moving on and not something where I am brave enough to have an opinion (when there may be lawyers watching!), but feel free to log in to your racing website of choice and have a look at the 2.55pm from Pontefract on Monday afternoon. You can then decide for yourself whether front runner Loch Long rolled off the rails under pressure before fading or whether, as has been suggested to me via an anonymous e-mail, he was pulled off the rial to give a clear run to the well backed favourite who went on to land the odds fairly comfortably. I guess this sport is full of conspiracy theorists, it’s the nature of the beat, and jockey Tom Eaves reported after the race that his gelding hung right, and all I can add is the question was asked and an answer accepted and for me I am happy enough to leave it at that.
For me, there is little doubt that the best news of the week was the official announcement that Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum’s famous blue and white colours will continue to race on our track for the long term with his daughter, Sheikha Hissa taking over at the helm, backed up of course by the large team of managers that were already in place. There was a worry in the racing World that none of the family held the same strong interest in in our sport that the father did with the exception of Sheikha Hissa, and no-one knew whether she wanted to step up at this time, but to her credit she has, and all we can now do is wish her all the very best and continue to cheer on the likes of Battaash and others over the years ahead.
Those who read my articles regularly will know full well that I try to fight for the punters cause, which in turn sees me as the bookmaker’s enemy (a badge I wear with pride), and this week is no exception. A winning bet has been brought to my attention where the lovely bookmakers refused to pay out yet again. On this occasion, after the best was struck, and after the horse had won, terms and conditions came in to play. Did you know that with many main major bookmakers, if you bet on-line, you are only allowed one account per household address and/or ISP? OK I am not stupid and I do understand why – use up all your promotion bonuses, get your account restricted – then open a new account in someone else’s name, and they certainly don’t want you doing that, though it does in turn ask at least two questions, and I will use my own household as an example. Firstly, and unsurprisingly, I have or have had an account with most major bookmakers, so what happens if either of my sons or my wife want to have a bet – are the bookmakers suggesting they can’t? If not, are they saying my family HAVE to bet through my accounts, and if so how can that be correct – they are all adults over the age of 18 and what they do with their money is nothing to do with me. Secondly, who was clever enough to design such complicated bookmaker software? It would appear that it is so clever that it can only identify the “more than one customer per household” scenario when you have a winning bet – yet the self-same software cannot identify you before you place the bet, amazing stuff! So, if that is the case, what about the innocent? To keep things realistic, we will assume I keep on losing with my racing bets, and then one of my son’s has a bet on the football at the Euros. The bet is accepted, and my son sits there cheering England on, and lands his bet jumping out of his seat as Kane scores the second goal against Germany – only to find he doesn’t get paid out because I had lost a tenner on the horses last week. Tell me, is that really fair because I don’t think so yet, as things stand, they seem a law unto themselves and are not answerable to anyone, least of all their customers.
Rant over and time to move on to the weekend’s racing – if you would prefer to listen to our thoughts feel free to go to our free podcast where Ron Robinson of World Of Sport fame will join me at https://postracing.co.uk/2021/07/02/the-post-racing-podcast-back-in-the-saddle-02-07-21/
Saturday.
Sandown 1.50pm
A decent sprint to start our day and it was quite interesting to see that three-year-olds have dominated this over the years with seven of the last ten winners and three of the last four. That statistic would bring ATALIS BAY into the equation as the shortest priced of that generation and after a course and distance win last time out after making all the running, the 8/1 makes the son of Cable Bay sorely tempting as an each way option. Admittedly he is stepping up from Listed class to this Group Three event but he has only had nine career starts, winning five of them, and there is every chance he has even more to offer. Lazuli looks a very serious danger and has perhaps the best form in the book but at the prices, I am happy enough with my selection each way here.
Sandown 2.25pm
Oh dear – the obligatory handicap and time to look at the stats. Win only one winner over the age of six in the last 24 renewals it seems safe(ish) to get rid of three of the fifteen runners (big deal I hear you cry), but more interestingly, only two have won after an absence of more than 60 days and if that holds true, we can say goodbye to favourite and last year’s winner Montatham – but no-one else. Only one winner started at bigger than 20/1 so using the current show I can lose Fantasy Believer, but from now on in, I am clutching at straws. We haven’t seen a winner from the three or the twelve stall so au revoir to Pythagoras and Trais Fluors, but that is where the story ends – and I am still left with eight to pick from even if those stats hold water. Of those eight, only MARIE’S DIAMOND has won a race off a higher mark, while Beat Le Bon has won off the mark he carries here, and like the fool I am I will Dutch the pair and have a little reverse forecast – just in case.
Sandown 3.00pm
Just the two horses rated over 100 in a Listed race is a pretty poor turnout to be blunt with you, but on form the favourite Statement should prove hard to beat if we take her six-length defeat in the 1000 Guineas as our guide. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride and I always see that as a good thing, but she needs to step up on her Epsom third to come home alone and at 9/4 if there was any value, it is now long gone. Trainer William Haggas has won the last two renewals of this race and he relies on Aunty Bridy who cannot be as bad as it appeared when an eased off last on her seasonal return and the better priced Ready To Venture, though I may take a risk to very small stakes on AURIA each way. Andrew Badling is putting in a winner most weekends in recent weeks and the daughter of Muhaarar ran well when runner-up to Creative Flair at Ascot before finishing fourth behind the same rival when running in snatches at Newbury. She is better than that and won’t need to improve that much to take a hand in the finish, though this suggestion arrives with close to zero confidence in a tough race to call.
Sandown 3.35pm
A frankly embarrassing four runners for one of the most important races of the season and despite a high-class field, tactics may be a big issue here with such a small field. If I had to take a guess then I suppose either outsider El Drama or even Addeybb will be forced to take them along form the off, but at what pace is the biggest question. If they go too fast then they play into the hands of Mishriff who stays further than this mile and a quarter, but I will assume they don’t in which case the pure speed of ST MARK’S BASILICA may come to the fore. The winner of the French 2000 Guineas over a mile and then the French Derby over a mile and a quarter, he is the one with speed to burn and in receipt of ten pounds from Mishriff that may be enough to tip the scales in his favour as he bids to become the first three-year-old to win this since 2018.
Haydock 2.40pm
Another battle of the generations over the mile and a half of the Lancashire Oaks but interestingly we have only seen one three-year-old come home in front in the last ten years and if that stat continues, we can put a line through a third of the nine-horse field. At the risk of annoying the great man it seems fair to say the Sir Mark Prescott stable are better known with the betting public for their improving staying handicappers, but they have the favourite here in the shape of Alpanista who has a tough race when battling to success at Goodwood in late April, but she has been sensibly rested since to allow her to recover. She is the most likely winner and is a 2/1 shot to do so but at a bigger price I will have a punt on LA LUNE. She has won both starts this season, the last one here very easily, and although I would be far more confident if the Henry Candy yard were in form (they aren’t), she deserves a chance in this better company and could yet surprise them all with David Probert the man in charge of the steering.
Greyville 2.00pm
I feel morally obliged to cover this race, however briefly, with some of the best times I have ever spent on a racecourse here in Durban, South Africa – believe you me, they know how to party and make Royal Ascot revellers look like a tea party. Of course the racing is important, but it’s all about the social occasion with fashion shows, and clothing so outrageous (to us old folks) that they have to be seen to be believed – but if ever get the chance to go, just do it, it belongs on any racegoers bucket list and is simply amazing. As for the race, well it always has a big field, so you need that bit of luck in running, but Justin Snaith has won the last three and his battalions seem sure to be thereabouts yet again. Belgarion won this last year under Richard Fourie but the five-year-old will be ridden by S’manga Khumalo in 2021 with Richard on board DO IT AGAIN who won this in 2018 and 2019 and was a solid third last season. He can win this for the third time even at the age of six and certainly looks the stable number one, and at 8/1 he looks each way material given a clear run. She’s A Keeper looks attractively handicapped and could well get involved but if all things go to plan (for once), then Linebacker will chase my selection home.
Sunday.
Chelmsford 3.27pm
Seven furlongs for the fillies on the all-weather for this Listed contest and at these weights it looks difficult to oppose WITH THANKS, though this is her first start on the all-weather meaning we have no proof that she will – or wont - handle the surface. Already a Group Three winner on heavy ground she did disappoint when fading rapidly in to seventh on her return at Haydock but she was fairly weak in the market that day suggesting she may come on for the run. On official ratings she has ten pounds or more in hand of all of these and that makes her a risk worth taking in my view. Chris Wall is a trainer I have a lot of time for, and if the selection has an off day, then his Double Or Bubble will take full advantage. It was the mile not the company that caught her out when a fading ninth at Royal Ascot in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and although he has a bit to find, I get the feeling we still haven’t seen the best of the daughter of Exceed And Excel who also makes her all-weather debut this afternoon.
One other horse worthy of a mention as Brazilian Derby winner Own Them has his first race with his new name of Nordic Sky in Hong Kong on Sunday in a Class Two handicap. Even I have nothing to go on with regard to Brazilian form but connections will have paid a pretty penny for the son of Salto before moving racing jurisdictions and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the 10.10am at Sha Tin on Sunday on his first start for Tony Millard and could be a horse worth following over the months ahead, though I do wonder if the seven furlongs here could prove to be far too sharp for him on his Hong Kong debut.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Uncs 2.17pm Beverley Saturday – an easy debut winner who looked as if he had a lot more to offer and looks up to giving a stone away to Stripzee who will try to make all upped in class after winning a seller. The selection is best drawn in the two stall and looks well worth a bet this weekend.
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