Glorious Goodwood Thursday - The Battle Continues

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

Well, I am not sure why I am being brave/stupid enough to offer up opinions on Glorious Goodwood with far too may handicaps for my liking, but here we go regardless.

Of course I won’t find all the winers (any might be a result looking at the cards), bit I will at least have a look -and nominate my idea of the best bet of the day at the bottom – good luck, we are going to need it!

Goodwood Thursday

1.50pm

Once again we start with a horror of a handicap, and a race I would gladly leave alone were it not on the Glorious Goodwood card.  Midnight Gun heads the market after his wins at Nottingham and Newmarket and he should go well if he gets the mile and a quarter, but he will need to improve again to shrug off a mark of 93, up 5lbfor a half length victory which seems a little punitive. Andrew Balding has his string in fine form recently and it may be worth taking a chance on Aragon Castle this afternoon. He seemed to stay on really well  when winning over a mile plus at Hamilton last time out, and although upped 6lb for that very easy win, I am hoping he will improve again for the step up in trip, which gives him an each way chance at a double figure price.  

2.25pm

Aparajeo may be the each way call here for Clive Cox, who won this in 2019 and 2020 and with one winning start to his name, the son of Invincible Army warrants a second look. However, the formbook points to the chances of The Strikin Viking, formerly in the care of Kevin Ryan and now having his first start for Hamad Al Jehani. A debut winer at York he stepped up in that form considerably when runner-up to Henri Matisse in the Group Two Railway Stakes at The Curragh, with the front two clear of the third, and if he can repeat or better than on this quicker ground, then he looks by far the likeliest winner.

3.00pm

Five runners for a Group Three at Glorious Goodwood is frankly embarrassing, but that won’t stop Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore looking to mop up another important race, this time with the twice raced Jan Brueghel. An eight-length maiden win was followed by a neck success in the Group Three Dubai International Stakes, with both races at The Curragh, and if he takes to the mile and a half here he may have more improvement to come. Rank outsider Align The Stars could be the one for the forecast for those who like that sort of thing, and as he stays even further he may end up having to make his own running, though if class tells the selection ought to land the odds fairly comfortably.  

3.35pm

The Group One Nassau Stakes has gone to some high-class fillies over the years including Minding, Deirdre, and Nashwa to name but three. Finding something that good this year may not be too easy, but if Opera Singer is now at her peak she could be the one. The winner of her final two races as a juvenile over a mile including the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac on her final start, she was slow to come to hand this season before reappearing with a third in the Irish 1000 Guineas despite looking as if she would improve for the race. She then kept on to be a length second to Porta Fortuna in the Coronation Stakes, again over a mile. As a daughter of Justify out of Sadler’s Wells mare there is every chance she will improve considerably for the step up in trip here, and in receipt of 8lb from her elders today may be her day. Those looking for a bigger price cannot ignore 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, behind the selection last time out but another who may find a lot more for the added quarter mile.

4.10pm

Handicaps are always difficult, but nurseries (two-year-old handicaps) are even harder to fathom with any amount of improvement – or not – from all of the runners. El Burhan has done little wrong with an easy wide-margin win last time out and he heads the early market, but he has to suffer top-weight for winning a Class Five which may be enough to stop him. The Balding yard continue in good form and Brighton Boy was pretty impressive last time out when getting off the mark at Chester by over three lengths. He gets in here off a rating of 82 which seems pretty fair, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle we can be assured of every assistance from the saddle.

4.45pm

A five-furlong handicap comes next on the list (eight races, who came up with that idea?), and one that has gone to horses priced from 100/30 favourite all the way up to 18/1 in the last decade. Single figure draws have dominated so we will start there, while horses rated between 79 and 93 seem the place to be. Sadly, applying those two “rules” that still leaves us with seven contenders, but the one I like the most is We Never Stop for Kevin Ryan. First-time cheekpieces seemed to bring plenty of improvement when he won by three lengths at Redcar, and although upped a huge 10lb for that he may make all and fend off his challengers here. .

5.20pm

With only four of the 13 declared having ever seen a racecourse we are in needle in a haystack territory here and bets should be reduced accordingly. Dreamy runs in unusual colours for Aidan O’Brien as she is part-owned by Flaxman Stables, the breeding arm of the Niarchos family. She is a superbly bred daughter of American Pharoah out of Yorkshire Oaks winner Tapestry who I assume Coolmore have bought in to, and if shew has the speed to deal with the seven furlongs, they there are high hopes she can her career off to a winning start.

5.55pm

One last race (it’s a marathon not a sprint) and another handicap to cope with this time over a mile. The obvious one to be on here has to be the Alice Haynes trained Sir Gabrial who bolted up by six and a half lengths at Salisbury last time out. Naturally, the handicapper took a very dim view of that romp, putting the son of Havana Grey up an astonishing 12lb, yet he gets in here carrying a 6lb penalty leaving him 6lb well in at the weights. Better still, that win was on a fast surface, and if the rains stay away it will be Good to Firm again here. 7/1 is rick solid each way to me and that is exactly the way I will be playing him here.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Sir Gabrial 5.55pm each way 3.00pm Goodwood