The first thing up for discussion on the podcast today is the thorny issue of watering – or overwatering which has caused the most complaints. I was lucky enough to be involved in an educational zoom call with Michael Prosser from Newmarket, and boy, I learned plenty. Naturally, they have a thankless task and are partly (largely) in the hands of the weather forecasters. If they predict rain, they don’t water – and if the rain stats away, guess whose fault it is? If they are told it will be dry, they water – and if the rains come, guess whose fault it is again? With hundreds of acres to cover, it isn’t a case of popping out with a watering can or two like my garden, and as they need to but at least some of the water needed, there are economics to consider as well – rather him than me. More importantly (and I cannot believe I did not think of this in all my years in the industry), three and four days meetings have their own problems. The amount of water needed to make the blindest bit of difference simply cannot be put on overnight – there is just not enough time. So, if they have a predicted dry spell, they have no choice but to push the ground to nearer to Good for day one knowing that they can only “top-up” overnight from then on to keep the going on the fast side of good. If they waterered to the target good to firm for day one, they would be crucified if it was dangerously fast by the last day. That explains a lot to me (and why times often get faster as a festival goes on), and also suggests that trainers should know better before going off on a rant.
Meanwhile, I also learned that the vast majority of closed or restricted bookmaker accounts are down to “promotion abuse” – guilty as charged. I freely admit that in the dim and distant past I have made the most of boosted prices to lay the bet off on the exchanges for a guaranteed profit – but I didn’t know that it would be treated as close to “illegal”, and I will be arguing in future meetings with bookmakers that they need to make this far clearer and not hide it in the deep and murky waters of their ever-changing terms and conditions.
Lastly, and almost breaking news (well, a few days ago), and a heavyweight bunch of racing protagonists have written to the BHA with their “solution” to the current ills. Naturally it involves an increase in prize money at the top end, but as they don’t explain where the money comes from, I am guessing a reduction of money at the lower end (I wonder what level of horses these people own/breed/train eh?). They don’t mention a reduction in the number of races or meetings, and as I know for a fact there is a reduction in the number of horses in training to fill those races, I am afraid I cannot see this as the long term solution. More importantly, and from a personal perspective as a member of the HBF (Horserace Bettors Forum), it never ceases to amaze me that the industry get together to offer a solution to the issues – trainers, owners racecourses and bookmakers – yet the punters I represent, who are acknowledged to provide 17% of the sports income (one in six) plus a percentage via media rights and racecourse income are not even asked to attend or have their say, and that is something I will work on over the months and years ahead.
Bored with reading – the podcast is back here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/07/28/the-boys-are-back-with-the-post-racing-podcast/ where Ron of Worldofsport fame and I will be discussing the issues above – and the racing below – two brains for the price of none as the podcast is free to listen to or download!
Not your normal article today with Glorious Goodwood taking over all our attentions, and just like Royal Ascot, I will try to give you that little bit extra. Expecting me (or anyone) to pick winners in every race is frankly ridiculous, but I am also aware that people do like a little interest now and then – so each day will see a page (like this) with a short piece on every race – plus the two daily pages with my main tips for the day – best of luck everyone.
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1.05pm
A maiden to start the final day of what has been an amazing Goodwood (as always), and it’s a tough one to call with four of the nine declared making their racecourse debuts. The Foxes was thrown in to Listed class for his second start before coming home a well-beaten ninth in the Chesham Stakes, but the fact that connections ran him there suggests he may be better than we have seen so far. Scorch is an interesting newcomer and is well worth a market watch for any signs of connection confidence, but Mark Johnston has won this twice in the last 10 years and has a big chance here with Loyal Touch. Sent off the 11/5f on his only start to date, he was as green as grass yet still came home a decent third, beaten less than a length at the line. He looks sure to improve considerably for the experience, and with Ryan Moore booked to ride I suspect they are looking for a win here at a track the stable farm given the right ammunition.
Loyal Touch to win
1.40pm
The fact that we have a field of 12 for what is a consolation race for those who didn’t get in to the Stewards Cup says a lot about race planning to me, but it will be as competitive as the main event, and may tell some stories regarding the draw – though obviously I don’t know that at the time of writing. Historically, 40 three-year-olds have raced here in the 23 runnings with just the one winner so far, but how can I go against Lethal Levi here? The winner of his last two starts on the Newmarket July course, the latest by an easy two lengths, he has to carry a 6lb penalty here but is due to go up a further 9lb for his future starts, suggesting he has lengths in hand according to the handicappers. Sprint handicaps are rarely that clear cut, but on this occasion, I see zero point in looking elsewhere.
Lethal Levi to win
2.10pm
From sprinters to stamina with this mile and three-quarter handicap, and at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, it may be all about the Charlie and Mark Johnston stable yet again. They have won this competitive race four times in the last seven years which is an amazing statistic, though they have three entered here so we need to find the right one. Jason Hart is on board Golden Flame, Ben Curtis on Themaxwecan, and Franny Norton is riding Soapy Stevens, and it the hat-trick seeker I am hoping will come out on top. A winner over two miles at Chester and this trip at Newmarket when all out to get up close home, he does have an added 3lb here but will appreciate a fast run race where he can bring his stamina in to play.
Soapy Stevens each way
2.45pm
Our first group race of the day and one dominated by the big Newmarket yards who have been responsible for seven of the last 10 winners. Sea La Rosa from the William Haggas stable looks their best chance this season after her second to Free Wind in the Lancashire Oaks, but that was on soft ground over a mile and a half, and conditions may be very different here, though to be fair she seems to handle whatever going is put in front of her. She may well go off favourite, and may well win, but I am going to take a chance on Yesyes at a bigger price. The fact that she was unraced at two suggests she is a late maturing sort, in which case she outran expectations with wins at Haydock, Lingfield and Chester last year, rounding off with a seventh on soft going in the Group one Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp. Down in grade here, she has won over this trip which is a big bonus, and although we have to take her race fitness on trust, the Beckett horses are running well and she will be far better suited by the expected going here.
Yesyes each way
3.20pm
On to the Stewards Cup proper over six furlongs and with winners at prices varying from 4/1f to 25/1 in the last decade, it seems that anything is possible. Low and high draws seem equally successful over the year so nothing to be learned there, though I do note we have not seen a winner over the age of seven in the last 25 renewals, so we can put a line through three of them using that as a dodgy guide and with only one successful seven-year-old, I will risk losing another six of the ridiculous 28 runner field. Sadly, weights, ratings etc tell us nothing with a rightly even split, but we can say that we can focus on the top 11 in the betting, who have been responsible for 22 of the last 25 winners (or 88%). On current odds (and sadly it can all change by race time), that leaves me with a shortlist of Inverpark, Great Ambassador , Whenthedealinsdone, First Folio, Popmaster, Chil Chil, Lampang, Raatea, and Commanche Falls. Sadly, I cannot suggest them all and my next port of call has to be the trainers. Even then it becomes a toss of a coin between Ed Walker (Great Ambassador and Popmaster) who has placed with all three of his runners, and Commanche Falls for Michael Dodds. The winner last year off just 2lb lower in the handicap, he ran a blinder on his return when second at Doncaster, failed to handle the track in a race best forgotten at Epsom, and unseated his jockey coming out of the stalls at Ascot. He has clearly been aimed here all season, and at 20/1 looks to have an outstanding each way chance, though this race is a lottery and any bets should be tempered accordingly.
Commanche Falls each way
3.55pm
Seven furlongs is seen as a specialist distance by many, myself included, as it stretches the stamina of the sprinters and the speed of the milers. Zero Carbon has a two out of two record over this trip and sneaks in off bottom weight, and he could go well with any further improvement as he looks to make it four wins in a row, but he is up against some classy opponents, and I wonder how much longer Spirit of Nguru will remain in handicap company. Twice a winner on the Kempton all-weather over this trip as a juvenile, he returned after a gelding operation for his first start of the season with a head second to Zero Carbon at Haydock on soft ground, when he finished well and only just failed to get up. He has been given another 2lb by the handicapper but I am hoping he will improve more than that for his one start of 2022, and with the stable in good form (33% strike rate at the time of writing), he seems to have an outstanding chance.
Spirit Of Nguru each way
4.30pm
As if the rest of the card wasn’t tricky enough we end with another handicap, this time over a mile and a furlong, and where I will revert to the stats one last time before some well-earned rest (and a beer). Eighteen runnings have seen just the one winner rated below 79 (three disappear), and only two winners aged over six (two more), while all bar one unsurprisingly raced in the last 60 days (two more). Add in 15 winners coming home in the first seven last time out and we can “scrap” five more – but that still leaves me with a huge field of six to deal with – life is never easy. Forest Falcon is reluctantly removed as no winner has carried more than 10 stone, leaving Fantasy Believer, Dutch Decoy, Sweet Reward, Mark of Respect, and Wonder Elmossman as the ones I want to focus on. After looking at the trainer stats, it is Sweet Reward who gets the final vote for Jonathan Portman, whose three runners in the race have seen a winner and two places, and although he needs to do more than his recent fifth at Sandown, he did win over C&D last September and could surprise them all.
Sweet Reward each way
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