Glorious Goodwood Special - Tuesday
Day One of Glorious Goodwood and you will note that I will have my two main tips to start things off – and as an added bonus, I will be covering the rest of the card in brief.
If I find plenty of winners that is a good thing – if I don’t, maybe not, but only time will tell on that one – though eight races is taking the mick!
Starting with the 4.00pm, and Kinross is a class act at his best and will love the cut in the ground in the Lennox Stakes plus the added furlong, and he won’t go under without a fight with regular partner Frankie Dettori back in the saddle. That said, 2/1 is skinny enough when you consider he has to give 6lb to the younger Isaac Shelby. Brian Meehan has never made any secret of his high regard for the son of Night Of thunder, who started his season with a win in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury, followed by a close-up second in the French 2000 Guineas and a fourth to Paddington at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace Stakes despite being denied a clear run at a crucial stage. He proved he handles cut in the ground in France and drops into group two company here and at the current price (11/2) he looks to be excellent each way value to me.
Isaac Shelby Each Way 4.00pm Goodwood
Courage Mon Ami goes from strength to strength and put in a sparkling piece of work last week ahead of this engagement, but the cut in the ground is still a question mark for him – but not for Emily Dickinson. Aidan O’Brien’s filly does have a bit to find on Ascot Gold Cup form to get the better of the jolly, but she is a different filly on a softer surface so connections will be praying for more rain. She goes well enough on a fast surface as most good horses do, but gains wings when it is soft and if conditions are in her favour, she shouldn’t be far away at the finish.
Emily Dickinson Each Way 4.35pm Goodwood
And Now, The Rest Of The Goodwood Card In Brief
1.40pm
It is impossible not to give a mention to Lord Riddiford, now an eight-year-old and the winner of this race last year – and the year before - at odds of 10/1 and 13/2 respectively, and off of marks of 88 an 87 whereas he races off just 84 this afternoon, and off this mark he is impossible to simply discount despite a lacklustre display at Epsom when he was last seen in June. He could go well at a price at a track he seems to save his best for, but a lower draw would have boosted my confidence.
Lord Riddiford each way to pennies
2.15pm
We are moving into unknown territory here with a fourteen runner maiden but it is noted that James Doyle rides Godolphin’s Dorney Lake for the Gosden’s, while William Buick is on board Union Island for Charlie Johnston, and you have to wonder why? Second on his only start at Hamilton he could get involved with a clear run but my preference remains with Array for Andrew Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy. Also second on his debut after some hefty overnight support, he should improve for the run as the stable’s horses invariably do, though to be fair this is a race where anything seems possible.
Array each way
2.50pm
A mile and a quarter handicap that saw Forest Falcon win for the Johnston’s last season, the stable’s fourth win in the last nine years, and that suggests this is a race they target. Outbreak is their sole representative this year but I prefer the chances of Eagles Way who fits the majority of stats for this race, and is entitled to strip a fraction fitter after finishing second off this mark at Yarmouth on his first start of the season.
Eagles Way each way
3.25pm
Seven of the last 10 winners of the Vintage Stakes have returned with the word favourite against their odds, and although we saw Marbaan score at 14/1 last season, the head of the market looks a good place to start. Iberian is a once raced Newbury winner who cruised up two out to win going away over the six and a half furlongs, and if he handles the expected give in the ground, then he could prove hard to beat with William Buick getting the ride. Mountain Bear represents Aidan O’Brien and is not to be ignored, though he may have to settle for a place on this occasion.
Iberian to win
5.05pm
Not a race I have any strong feelings about, but if I do have a bet then Sir Michael Stoute’s Stormy Sea would be the one. Second on her only start as a two-year-old, she returned this season with a comfortable win in a Haydock novice before being stepped up in class at York in the Listed Michael Seely Memorial Stakes in May on quicker ground. Only sixth that day, her sights are lowered to handicapping now and if I am right and the quicker going hindered her that day, she may be well-handicapped off a mark of just 92 this afternoon.
Stormy Sea each way
5.35pm
Just the two runnings of this contest have seen a winner at 3/1 and the other at 22/1 so read into that what you will. Although her winning run has to come to an end sometime, Kitai may be able to land her hat-trick here if she is in the same form as last time out when she won with plenty in hand over this trip at Pontefract, leading a furlong out and only needing to be pushed put to come home close to three lengths clear of the second. That must have upset the handicapper who has given her another 7lb to carry this afternoon, but her superiority that day suggests she may be able to shrug that off and come home in front once again.
Kitai to win
Commentaires