Day Five of Glorious Goodwood and you will note that I will have my two main tips to start things off – and as an added bonus, I will be covering the rest of the card in brief.
If I find plenty of winners that is a good thing – if I don’t, maybe not, but only time will tell on that one!
It is no secret that Charlie Johnson thinks he has a great chance of landing this maiden with Individualism, and who am I to argue? The son of Too Darn Hot ran a blinder first time out when a three-quarter length second to previous winner Cerulean Bay at Ayr after hitting the front two out after a slow start, before getting worn down close home. Word is he has improved hand over first at home for that experience, and if that is the case, he will do for me. Stratocracy is a newcomer worth keeping an eye n and he could run into a pale, but I am perfectly happy with my selection in this particular contest.
Individualism each way 4.45pm Goodwood
Another tricky handicap to try and solve only this time they face a stamina sapping mile and three quarters. I have always been a fan of the underrated Rab Havlin who rides early favourite Sweet William for the Gosdens. A lightly raced four-year-old with just the five starts on the clock, he has won the last two at Doncaster and Newbury with his latest success gained over two miles plus, suggesting he will have no issues with the trip today. The ground is the question mark as he has never raced on anything with as much juice in it as he will come up against here, but he is a half-brother to Hurricane Lane who own Group Ones on very soft (Grand Prix de Paris by six length at Longchamp) and that bodes well for his chances of handling the conditions now.
Sweet William to win 2.25pm Goodwood
The Rest Of The Goodwood Card In Brief - Saturday
1.50pm
Like most of the races today I have grave concerns about the going with many of these yet to prove their worth on a surface as sticky as they are likely to face this afternoon. Music Society is a very tentative suggestion at a decent price with his last win in October last year – on soft going and off the same mark he has to shoulder this afternoon. He seems to handle any ground thrown at him with equal aplomb, and in a race I would rather watch then bet him, he seems to have as good a chance as any here.
Music Society each way
3.00pm
Free Wind won her only start on soft ground when hacking up at Haydock in July and although beaten three lengths into fifth last time out at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke Stakes, that was no disgrace and this field does look weaker. The winner of the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster over further last year the trip holds no fears, and after winning her maiden at the tack by nine lengths, we know she handles the course as well. Rated 6lb better than all of her rivals at these weights even the 11/8 I am looking at may prove to be reasonable value by the time the race is over.
Free Wind to win
3.35pm
Trainer Charlie Hills seems to hold a strong hand here with favourite Orazio an obvious player, but he was being aimed at the Wokingham where he came home
A respectable fifth off his current mark, and he may be even happier on this surface, but that said, we have missed any value there might have been and I will be going in each way on his stable companion Tanmawwyat a much bigger price. His neck second at Newbury in April suggests he will handle the ground, and although he has a 6ln penalty for an easy win at Windsor at this level last month, jockey Connor Planas takes five of those back from the saddle. He likes to be on or near the early pace making him a good ride for an apprentice in my book, and he could be the dark horse in an ultra-competitive renewal.
Tanmawwy each way
4.10pm
The Johnston yard have won this race four times in the last eight years and that suggests we would be remiss not to consider top-weight Urban Sprawl, though he races off 8lb higher here than his last success (here) in May, and has already had 14 starts at the age of three, so there may not be much more if any progression to come. He could of course, make me eat my words, but I prefer the chances of the lightly raced New Businesswith Ryan Moore riding. His four starts include a win at Kempton over this trip, before he pulled too hard too early when fourth at Sandown off 1lb higher last month. Like most here, we have no idea if he will or won’t handle this ground, but he won’t be lacking assistance from the saddle that’s for sure, and he looks all set to give a good account of himself this afternoon.
New Business each way
5.20pm
Amazingly the last five winners of this have scored at a single figure price so it may pay to side with something nearer to the top of the market for a change. One Step Beyond has won two of his three starts since joining Gary Moore, the latest buy a couple of lengths at Ascot over the mile, and although he has been out up 6lb for that, he sneaks in here off bottom weight. Trainers son Ryan Moore takes the ride and although I do have some serios concerns over the going, he could still run well. Liberty Lane is my idea of the biggest danger and I may have an each way bet on his mas well as at least we know the gong will see him at his peak.
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