Friday
1.50pm
The handicaps here at Goodwood have been difficult all week (no great shock there) but we are well and truly up at present, and I am hoping that the Hugo Palmer trained Zoffee may be able to add to our profits. His hurdling and chasing career saw wins at Doncaster and Exeter but he returned to the Flat with wins at Newcastle and Carlisle before a close up third at Newmarket, just a head off the winner. That was over a mile and six but he oozes stamina, and if he get home over the two and a half miles plus, he has an each way chance and could yet start our day with a profit, even if he only gets in to the first four.
Zoffee each way
2.25pm
Checkandchallenge heads the early market here and is clearly the flag bearer for trainer William Knight, but I am going to oppose him here with Bayside Boy, who I feel may go off at the head of the market come race time. This small field seems likely to be taken along by Norwegian 2000 guineas winner Hotline Bling and German 2000 Guineas winner Rocchigiani who like to be up with the pace, but they will be there to be shot at and we need a decent finisher. Roger Varian’s son of New Bay ran his best race of the season when seventh in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, beaten just two lengths by 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus. He was one place behind Berkshire Shadow that day but didn’t get the clearest of runs, and in this smaller field he has his best chance yet of a first win in 2022.
Bayside Boy to win
3.00pm
With only one winner over the age of six in the last 25 runnings we can theoretically remove three of the outsiders here (for what that’s worth), and only one carrying more than nine stone seven, the stats suggest we can lose another five, including the strongly fancied Saleymm, though naturally, these things are facts from the past – and no guarantee of the future. That man Mark Johnston has won this six times and placed with another seven runners, suggesting Austrian Theory could have a say at a big price, but I suspect Godolphin will win this with either Noble Dynasty or Shining Blue. Team tactics will be interesting as they both like to be on or near the front, but my selection remains unbeaten after three starts and could have a lot more to offer. His last win was a comfortable one on the Newcastle all-weather, and although upped 6lb in the handicap for that success, I am hoping he has that and more to come as he gains in experience.
Shining Blue each way
3.35pm
Raasel just goes from strength to strength for trainer Mick Appleby who is one of racing’s nice guys, and despite tipping a different horse in the search for better value, I will be cheering him home should he get to the front where it matters – some things are more important than money. Those who think Frankie Dettori is finished as a jockey clearly don’t know him at all, and he rides interesting Czech challenger Ponntos here. At first glance you would think Czech form gives him zero chance (well, I did), yet official international ratings see him rated 109, just 1lb less than Acklam Express who is the highest ranked here. Only a four-year-old, he won the Group three Prix dec Saint-Georges at Longchamp in Amy under (you guessed it) Frankie Dettori, before coming home 13th in the Group One King’s Stand Stakes. Tomas Lukasek rode hm there and in my opinion went off far too fast, but Frankie returns to the saddle now and I am hoping we will see a much better performance.
Ponntos each way
4.10pm
I do try to avoid favourites when the opportunity arises, but Charlie Appleby’s Rebel’s Romance is the exception to that rule today. Campaigned exclusively on the all-weather and dirt for his first seven starts, winning four of them headed by the group two UAE Derby in March last year, he had his first start on grass in June at Newmarket where he strolled home close to four lengths clear in Listed class despite and awkward start, and failing to keep a straight line close home. He can only learn more from that (and I suspect they may run him in a special bit or noseband) and looks to have this race at his mercy if that is the case.
Rebel’s Romance to win
4.45pm
Anyone who tells you they can solve nurseries (handicaps for two year olds) needs to seek help, they are usually complete nightmares with most if not all of the runners open to plenty of improvement because of their tender age. I am going back to the stats for this one to at least try to cut down the contenders, and we can start with their last start. All of the last 25 winners came home in the first seven in their latest race, and that gets rid of five of the 16 declared, while no winners have come from a stall higher than 13, which removes two more. No winners have carried more than nine stone seven which gets rid of the early favourite Bolt Action (interesting), and only one winner has been rated higher than 89 (two more fall by the wayside). Of those left “standing”, I note that the Hannon and Mark Johnston yards have been particularly successful here, and that leads me to pick between Gaallib, Silencer, Explicit, and jungle fever, and being me, I’m also going to play forecasts and tricasts (to pennies) on the four. That said, a decision needs to be made and after landing our bets with Trillium on Wednesday, I will side with Nottingham maiden winner Gaallib who won readily enough after a slow start, and can only get better as he learns his job.
Gaallib each way
5.20pm
Another trappy handicap to close a difficult card, and thank goodness we are already so far ahead at this meeting. With just the 17 previous runnings to work with, stats are a little thinner on the ground, but we will still find a way to come up with a sensible selection. fifteen of those winners came home in the first four on their last start, (bye bye to five), but sadly, nothing else leaps off the page that is on any use. No trainer represented in 2022 has won this more than once, though I note that William Buick has won this twice, Frankie Dettori the same, and it may lie between the two of them. Highland Premiere may be the one after he ran on to be beaten half a length over ten furlongs at Newcastle last week, and if he is over those efforts, he ought to land a place at the very least off just a single pound higher.
Highland Premiere each way
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