ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Well, I am not sure why I am being brave/stupid enough to offer up opinions on Glorious Goodwood with far too may handicaps for my liking, but here we go regardless.
Of course I won’t find all the winers (any might be a result looking at the cards), bit I will at least have a look -and nominate my idea of the best bet of the day at the bottom – good luck, we are going to need it!
Goodwood Friday
1.50pm
Two miles four and a half furlongs is a stamina test in anybody’s book yet we have two course and distance winners are on this line-up, which is pretty impressive. 2022 winner Master Milliner is back for more of the same and although he hasn’t bothered the judge in four starts since, he races off 3lb lower this year and he has to have some kind of chance. That said, last time out saw him coming home over nine-lengths adrift of 2023 winner Temporize, who he meets on 6lb better terms this afternoon, which may not be enough. Syd Hosie’s five-year-old arrives in winning form after making all at Newbury, and although upped 3lb for that narrow success, he stays for ever as we know and has to have an each way chance.
2.25pm
An interesting if tricky Group Three for three-year-olds over the mile is next on the Goodwood agenda, and in such a competitive field, each way may be the way to go once more. Al Musmak is officially the best horse in the race with a rating of 113, and his two-year-old form is solid with wins at Ascot and Haydock (in Listed class), but he saved his best for last with a second to Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket. Returning at York with a last of seven in the Dante Stakes over a mile and a quarter plus, he followed that with a seventh in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot (also a mile and a quarter), before connections saw the light and returned him to a mile. Comfortably winning a Listed race under Silvestre De Sousa back at Newmarket, a fast run mile here looks his optimum trip and there is every chance he can double up.
3.00pm
The Golden Mile has always been one of the season’s top handicaps to solve with winers at odds between 7/4 (Frankin D in 2016) and 25/1 (Johan last season) over the past 10 runnings, and with two winning favourites and a joint-favourite in that time. Looking at the last 15 years just to be different (14 runnings), and to my surprise 12 (86%) came out of a single figure draw, 11 came home in the first eight last time out (79%), 12 were priced at 20/1 or shorter at the off (86% though we have to use early prices), 12 were aged six or younger (86%), 12 came from the first 10 in the betting at the off (86%), 12 had run in the last 60 days (86%), 12 were rated 94 or higher (86%), and 12 were rated 103 or less (86%). Add those together (no guarantees but you can see where I am coming from), and you end up with a shortlist of three, with Silent Film, Blue For You, and Two Tempting. Of that trio, Two Tempting has never won on turf without the word soft in the going and as I write that seems unlikely (famous last words), so I am down to the two contenders with the vote going to the current jolly. A winner last time out and due to go up 6lb for future contests, he gets in here with a 3lb penalty which may just give him the narrowest of edges.
3.35pm
Mixed messages have been reaching me regarding Australian challenger Asfoora with some of my Aussie friends telling me Goodwood will not suit the mare and she will be better at York – while her trainer originally suggested Ascot would not suit her (where she won the King Charles III Stakes by a length) but Goodwood would be ideal – so who will be proved to be correct? As I write she is joint-favourite with Big Evs, but much as I would love to see Mick Appleby win another big pot with the well-bought son of Blue Point, the realist is he has a length and a half to find with his market rival on Ascot form, and is only 2lb better off this afternoon.
4.10pm
One of the more interesting races today with the eagerly anticipated return to action of My Prospero, already a Group Two winner and dropping into a Conditions Stakes here. He hasn’t been seen since coming home seventh to King of Steel in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last October, a break of nine months, but the implication of his entry here is that he is fit and well and ready to run – if not, why not wait for a better race? With wins on soft, good to soft, good, and good to firm all ground seems to come alike to the son of Iffraaj, and he ought to return with a bang, with rank outsider Crown Board the interesting rival after one win from one start – albeit at Wolverhampton.
4.45pm
Two handicaps to end the card and I won’t pretend to have any confidence in this six-furlong nursery. Rare Change heads the early betting and perhaps understandably so after a three-quarter length third at Haydock despite meeting trouble in running, though he arrives here a maiden which has to be of some concern. Alondra could go well at a big price for Vincent Ho nearer the bottom of the weights having shown signs of ability without success, but I prefer the hat-trick seeking The Dragon King for Clive Cox. Yet to be too impressive, he is one of these horses who only does enough to hold on in a finish hence two narrow wins at Doncaster and Windsor over shorter, but if he gets the sixth furlong here off a mark of 84, he won’t let us down if nothing else.
5.20pm
One mile three furlongs and 44 yards for our last handicap of the day and this time, we are limited to three-year-olds and thus we have limited form to work with. The last 10 runnings have seen 10 different winning trainers, though Ryan Moore, William Buick, and Frankie Dettori have won two each, and none of them currently have a ride in 2024. None of them have won at Goodwood before and none of them have even raced over the trip which has to be a concern to punters, and we really are fumbling around in the dark on this one. As I write storms are predicted in Sussex but they haven’t showed up just yet and the going remains Good to Firm, with New Chelsea the only one here with winning form on ground that fast after winning narrowly last time out at Windsor. That is as deep as I am willing to go in a race that could see any of these improve enough to win, though do keep an eye on bottom weight Huxley in the early markets on his first start for new connections and following a gelding operation.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Al Musmak each way 2.25pm Goodwood
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