Wednesday
Not your normal article today with Glorious Goodwood taking over all our attentions, and just like Royal Ascot, I will try to give you that little bit extra. Expecting me (or anyone) to pick winners in every race is frankly ridiculous, but I am also aware that people do like a little interest now and then – so each day will see a page (like this) with a short piece on every race – plus the two daily pages with my main tips for the day – best of luck everyone.
We had an amazing first day as many of you will know and I only hope you all filled your boots because we cannot be that lucky twice, but with winners at 14/1, 10/1, 7/4, and 5/2 we have made enough to cover any losses for the rest of the week – but that does not mean I won’t be looking for more and putting the hours in!
1.50pm
Secret State looks all set to go off favourite here and to be fair, he has done nothing wrong lately with three wins in a row, but no horse rated over 99 has won this in 25 years and he needs to buck that trend which isn’t guaranteed. He should go well regardless but at a short price I am happy to look elsewhere, and the lucky pin has come down on Mark Johnston’s Luminous Light – each way, of course. His form leaves him with a little to find after a third at Ripon off this mark, but he ran on well after being passed that day and tries the mile and a half for the first time. His stable have won this five times, and placed on a further four occasions with only Sir Michael Stoute boasting a better record (and he doensn’t have a runner this year), and at a big price, he may give us a decent run for our money off this weight.
Luminous Light each way
2.25pm
I will happily admit that it doesn’t always work, but us punters are a patriotic bunch, meaning foreign raiders are often sent off at a bigger price than they should be, and on this occasion that may well apply to French challenger Samahran. A lightly raced daughter of Sea The Moon, I will confess I am surprised to see her racing over seven furlongs here considering she has already won over a mile and a quarter, but trainer Francis-Henri Graffard is nobody’s fool, and if he thinks she has the pace, she probably does. She is perfectly capable of sitting near or on the pace if needed which may be relevant today, but what she really needs is fast early pace she can attack from, and she seems sure to get that here, and may well run in to a place at a double figure price.
Samahran each way
3.00pm
Rocket Rodney has the form in the book to win this after taking the Dragon Stakes at Sandown last time out, but he has been beaten twice from his four starts, and Evens just does not appeal. He could win this and make fools of us all (especially me), but at the odds I prefer to have a bet on Trillium. Richard Hannon’s daughter of No Nay Never strolled home despite running green at Newbury earlier in the month, and if she improves again, she may well follow up. Irish raider Studio City came under serious consideration and could take them along from the off, but he will be out there to be shot at, and I am hoping my selection will run him down close home under Pat Dobbs.
Trillium each way
3.35pm
We don’t have enough runners here for me to bother looking for an each way alternative, so I suggest we all sit back and watch the wonder that is Baeed. He is officially rated the best horse in the World, has won all eight races, and is being compared to Frankel by some (not me, I might add), and it will be a massive shock if he fails to come home in front this afternoon. You could go looking for the forecast if you wanted to, but I can’t decide between the rest of the field, and for once I suggest you font even have a bet – just watch equine excellence in action for a change.
Baeed to win
4.10pm
A relatively new race with just the six renewals so far, and with no dual winning horse, trainer, or jockey, the stats tell us very little. Three-year-olds have won four of those six, and with the exception of Sagaciously in 2016, no winner has carried more than eight stone thirteen, which translate to nine stone one now the weights have all gone up. That fact (if its relied on) takes out six of the nine horse field amusingly, but now I have seen it I cannot unsee it and have to work accordingly. Of the three left, Peripatetic looks the best qualified after a third at Salisbury on her handicap bow, and following a fifth in Listed class at Newmarket (well beaten though). Slwoly away that day before running on when the race was over, her stable are in great form at present, and if she can start with a little less hesitation, she could go well in a race I frankly don’t like very much.
Peripatetic each way
4.45pm
The Platinum Queen blitzed her rivals in a decent race at York last time out but once again, Evens is just not for me on this occasion. Al The Time has been given weeks off to recover from a poor effort in the Queen Mary and she could be a player now, but Cruise is the one for me on an afternoon where the Hannon yard could have a good day. Once raced ,the daughter of Cotai Glory ran far too freely over the six furlongs at Newmarket that day, and did well to get as close as she did to Albany Stakes third Ivory Madonna, who came home in second. She should get the sixth furlong when she settle, but can be given her head dropped back to this trip and with improvement almost guaranteed, I am expecting a huge run here.
Cruise each way
5.20pm
Just the 10 runnings of this seven-furlong handicap but the first thing to note is every one of the 10 winners came home in the first six on their previous start. We can lose four horses if we apply that as a filter, though in a field of 19 that isn’t the best of starts. No horse rated lower than 83 has scored so we can lose two more, none who haven’t raced in the last 60 days (two more), and all the winners have come from the first eight in the betting, and I am left with a workable field of six – well, sort of. Sorry but I cannot have The Attorney with the Charlie Hills yard without a winner in the last two weeks at the time of writing, Stockpyle was last seen winning at Wolverhampton and has gone up 8lb for that, so I have to be on Wild Lion for Saeed bin Suroor with Frankie Dettori in the saddle (it’s like we have gone back in time). The winner of both starts last season at Newcastle, he was beaten less than a length at Leicester on his only start of this season, and with any improvement, he has to have a decent shout.
Wild Lion each way
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